Hoopinion: Atlanta Hawks analysis. Run on pessimism and truth.

Seven Reasons Why the Hawks Won't Trade For Chris Kaman

2012-01-28T12:27:00.000-05:00

The New Orleans Hornets are actively trying to trade center Chris Kaman, who was not with the team for its home game Friday night against Orlando as the league-owned Hornets field trade calls for him.

The Hornets have decided to shelve Kaman until they can find a trade home for him after making the decision to give his minutes to young players. Kaman had been made inactive for Wednesday's loss at Oklahoma City even though he's not injured.

1) Chris Kaman makes $14 million this season and the Hawks are still over the luxury tax line. Per Sham Sports:

[P]layers with less than two years experience that are signed to the minimum salary are, for luxury tax purposes only, counted as having the minimum salary of a two year veteran/third year player. Therefore, Greg Stiemsma's $762,195 salary and cap hit is treated as $854,389 for tax calculations, and only for tax calculations. The same is true of the first- or second-year minimum salaries being paid to Mickell Gladness and Terrel Harris of Miami, Donald Sloan and Ivan Johnson of Atlanta, and Gary Neal and Malcolm Thomas of San Antonio.

2) Related: The Hawks lost $15 million last season. That's without paying the luxury tax, receiving their share of the luxury tax paid by other teams, and playing six home playoff games. Also related: There's no one with money who wants to buy the team.

3) Chris Kaman has been good and healthy exactly once in the last four seasons. A better record than Jerry Stackhouse or Jason Collins...maybe this isn't the best example. However, I doubt present-day Chris Kaman will or should be the guy for whom the Hawks go over the tax line.

4) Chris Kaman's an okay player. So is Zaza Pachulia. So is Kirk Hinrich can play. So is Marvin Williams. So might be next year's first round draft pick. The Hawks would have to give up some combination of the four to acquire Kaman. Plus, if the Hawks choose to trade another first-round pick, it should be traded for someone better than Chris Kaman if this team's going to improve significantly.

5) The Atlanta Hawks think that Jason Collins can play in a general, rather than highly specialized, sense.

6) Though the Hawks are having a very good season, so are the Bulls and the Heat and the 76ers. The Hawks' playoff chances are a function of both their quality and the quality of the rest of the conference. The Eastern Conference is seriously top-heavy. The Hawks are without Al Horford, they don't know if he'll be back for the playoffs, and being without him has made a difference:

2011-12	Off Eff	Def Eff	Diff
w/ Horford	109.2	100.6	+8.6
w/o Horford	104.2	100.4	+3.8

Is this really the season the Hawks should completely throw financial caution to the wind?

7) The Hawks already made their big move. They locked up Joe Johnson in full knowledge that doing so would severely limit their flexibility. Expecting a subsequent blockbuster trade or free agent signing seriously misreads the powers that be.

Initial Feedback: Happy To Get Out of Detroit

2012-01-27T22:58:00.000-05:00

By Mark Phelps

Initial feedback: A completely subjective and immediate response to the events of tonight's game, featuring a comment and rating, the latter on a scale of 1 to 10, on every player who saw the floor and the head coach, along with ephemera and miscellany as the author deems necessary.

Your ratings and commentary, dear reader, are welcomed in the comments to this post.

Boxscore

Players
Jeff Teague: Teague's woes this game echoed the team's first-half play: erratic, out-of-control, missed defensive assignments, and an unwillingness to attack the basket against a clearly inferior team. Showed a spark before going down with an ankle injury. 2/10

Joe Johnson: You would think by now a seasoned vet like Joe should know that when your shot isn't falling, you can still affect the game in other ways. Not so for Johnson in the first half, as his lackluster 1-9 shooting was accented by only one assist, one rebound, and no steals. Joe turned in the opposite performance in the 2nd half, scoring 10 in the first eight minutes of the 3rd quarter and 30 overall, while also facilitating offense for others. Got to play hero at the end of regulation with an amazing 3, then led the attack while the Hawks sealed the win in overtime. 8/10

Josh Smith: Once again, Josh fell in love with the jumper. They were not always falling, but he provided solid D, great rebounding and assist totals, and capitalized on the opportunity to throw a nail-in-the-coffin 3 in. 7/10

Marvin Williams: Marvin showed off some very efficient basketball. He was 6-9 from the field (five threes) with 8 rebounds and a huge 3 toward the end of the game for 22 points (season high). This was his first game this season where he reached 35 minutes, and he really showed what he could do with his time. 8/10

Zaza Pachulia: Zaza was extremely effective down low and attacking the glass, and capitalized on Detroit's late lack of post defense. Was always in the right place to receive the easy bucket. 7/10

Kirk Hinrich: Hinrich picked up all the available minutes from Teague's injury in only his second game back. While his shot wasn't perfect, he still picked up a team-high 9 assists. 5/10

Tracy McGrady: T-Mac provided the only hot hand in the first half and really picked the team up when it was struggling. He was the only Hawk during that time to effectively create his own shot and create for others. Really making Sund look great for that signing. 7/10

Jason Collins: Collins contributed on the glass, but mostly looked lost on defense. 2/10

Willie Green: Hit his lone shot and played reasonable defense while on the floor, but thankfully didn't receive too many minutes. Pretty much exactly what you need from Green. 3/10

Ivan Johnson: Seemed to have a difficult time knowing where he should be on the floor and got burned a few times. Contributed on the glass and was strong to the hoop on one play, but it seemed Drew realized that Ivan was outmatched when on the floor and he received his second-fewest minutes in the past 10 games. 2/10

Vladimir Radmanovic: Barely stepped on the floor and wasn't a factor in the game. 1/10

The head coach
Drew may have finally realized what most of us have: Marvin will need extended minutes, especially in light of Horford's injury. Drew should be credited with drawing up some good plays down the stretch, but mostly the Hawks were capitalizing on mistakes by the Pistons, and Drew's inability to adjust to the Pistons early lane attack was what helped dig the hole in the first place. And Jason Maxiell goes off for 19? -1 for that alone. 5/10

A thought regarding the opposition
The Pistons seem to me like the Hawks of the mid-2000s, a team full of forwards and more talent than sense. That showed clearly tonight, as mental mistakes clearly cost them this game. Greg Monroe has a bright future in front of him, and if Brandon Knight can find his shooting stroke, they have an edge on those old Hawks teams by having a legitimate floor general. That said, only 3 Pistons have a PER over 15 (Monroe and Stuckey being the only ones who played tonight), so you can bet it will be a long rebuilding process.

Initial Feedback: Homecourt Advantage Is Huge This Season

2012-01-25T23:28:00.000-05:00

By James Goeders

Initial feedback: A completely subjective and immediate response to the events of tonight's game, featuring a comment and rating, the latter on a scale of 1 to 10, on every player who saw the floor and the head coach, along with ephemera and miscellany as the author deems necessary.

Your ratings and commentary, dear reader, are welcomed in the comments to this post.

Boxscore

Players

Jeff Teague: The loan bright spot for the Hawks on a night when only three players scored in double figures. Did a decent job being matched up against Tony Parker and added 3 steals to go with his 5 rebounds and game high 20 points. Did not have an assist, but that's more because no one's shots were falling after Teague got the ball to them. 8/10

Joe Johnson: After such a strong finish Monday night Joe just couldn't find his shot against the Spurs. Did have 7 assists but went 0-for-3 from behind the arc and only 5-for-12 from the floor. Did not have a rebound and was held to only 10 points (his second fewest points on the season). Joe only took four shots after halftime (making 2-of-4) . 3/10

Josh Smith: Spent a big part of the game on the offensive end just standing around the three point line. Not able to take advantage of the long rests that the Spurs gave to Duncan, though that could have been more the zone defense the Spurs went to while he was out. Another Hawk that was cold from the floor (shot 6-for-17) and couldn't grab any rebounds (1 offensive/5 total) to lead to second chance points. Tiago Splitter absolutely shut him down inside. 3/10

Marvin Williams: Rough first half for Marvin who kept leaving Richard Jefferson alone at the three point line. Did not make his first basket until there were 9 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. He did play with intensity when the game was still in question in the second half hitting a couple of threes and grabbing 9 rebounds. Need Marvin to pick up his game so that the team doesn't have to rely so much on Ivan Johnson and VladRad. 4/10

Zaza Pachulia: Complete nonfactor offensively most of the game. Missed him defensively when the starters were on the bench for the extended period in the 2nd quarter, but he wasn't doing much on the glass (you might be noticing a pattern with the Hawks tonight). 2/10

Kirk Hinrich: Looked good shooting for his first game since April 28, 2011. Went 3-for-4 from the field making a three on his first shot of the season. The biggest positive will be less minutes going to Pargo and Green. 4/10

Tracy McGrady: Had a couple of nice passes to Ivan that Johnson just couldn't finish. Ended the game with only 3 assists, but on a better shooting night by his teammates that easily could have been close to double digits. TMac's best asset is setting up other players, and when shots aren't falling he's going to come up short on the stat sheet. 3/10

Vladimir Radmanovic: Missed both 3pt attempts and was a huge liability on defense. VladRad consistently left Bonner alone to drain threes which greatly contributed to the Spurs run in the 2nd quarter. Did make his two late free throws to avoid the goose egg. 1/10

Willie Green: 17 minutes and 3 points on 1-for-5 shooting. Atrocious while the game was still competitive. 1/10

Ivan Johnson: Ivan wanted to have a strong showing in front of his hometown crowd, but instead he had trouble on both ends of the court. Went completely invisible for big stretches and got abused inside defensively. Had a few pointblank shots that just wouldn't fall. Need more out of the first big guy to come off the bench. 3/10

Jannero Pargo: Got in for the final six minutes when the game was way out of hand. With Hinrich looking strong in his first game of the season we will not see much more Pargo. 2/10

Jerry Stackhouse: Another sacrificial lamb getting minutes with the Hawks down 20+. At least maybe the starters will be well rested for Detroit. Did hit his second three of the season and had 2 of the Hawks 6 offensive rebounds. 1/10

The head coach

Left the second team in for a long time in the second quarter when it was apparent they were getting destroyed both inside and outside. Team just went cold in the second half and really missed Al Horford’s help on the boards. Wish Drew could have figured out Matt Bonner as he was consistently open at the 3pt line (5-for-7 on the night). 3/10

A thought regarding the opposition
On a night where Tim Duncan and Richard Jefferson were held to single digits and the Spurs had more turnovers than the Hawks, they were still able to get an easy win at home by destroying Atlanta on the glass (44-34 that was even worse when the game was in doubt), inside (52 points in the paint compared to Atlanta's 34), and behind the line (11-23 vs. 4-12). The Spurs won this game by getting 51 points from only 4 bench players.

SI.com: Robson: Hawks hang tough without Horford

2012-01-25T09:52:00.001-05:00

Britt Robson bucks the trend of ranking the Hawks on the basis of what is expected to happen in Al Horford's absence rather than on their body of work:

The Atlanta Hawks should be folding any day now.

That's been the dismissive conventional wisdom about the team from the "Highlight Factory" for more than a year. It's not fashionable to like Atlanta's chances, or even to respect its identity. The Hawks are the bickering team that was annihilated by Orlando in the 2010 playoffs (except they came back and beat the Magic in 2011). They are the team that overpaid for Joe Johnson, preventing them from making upgrades that can get them to the next level (except they have upgraded at point guard with the emergence of Jeff Teague and the imminent return of Kirk Hinrich).

The Hawks are also the team widely regarded as having more talent than maturity, and not enough of either to be a real factor in the postseason, a notion that was reinforced by the potential season-ending injury to their best and smartest player, Al Horford, a couple of weeks ago. I know: Even after the Hawks had won three of four, I docked them seven spots in last week's Power Rankings on the assumption that Horford's absence would doom a good team to mediocrity.

Wrong.

Atlanta is 6-1 since the Horford injury. Yes, the schedule has been soft, but the Milwaukee team that the Hawks knocked off Monday had just finished upsetting the Heat in Miami. And Horford or no Horford, Atlanta already has played the Bulls and the Heat two times apiece and still owns the NBA's third-best record, behind Chicago and Oklahoma City.

I've learned my lesson. I won't prejudge the Hawks, who jump to sixth this week. I suspect the loss of Horford will eventually take its toll (old assumptions die hard), but Atlanta has earned the right to trump conventional wisdom with reality.

The Hawks remain fourth in John Hollinger's purely results-driven power rankings, a state of affairs that would be more exciting did they not also rank fourth in the Eastern Conference.

Initial Feedback:

2012-01-24T00:35:00.002-05:00

By Buddy Grizzard

Initial feedback: A completely subjective and immediate response to the events of tonight's game, featuring a comment and rating, the latter on a scale of 1 to 10, on every player who saw the floor and the head coach, along with ephemera and miscellany as the author deems necessary.

Your ratings and commentary, dear reader, are welcomed in the comments to this post.

Boxscore

Players
Joe Johnson: There is nothing wrong with going iso-Joe when it's working. Johnson continues to put this team on his back in the absence of Al Horford and against the Bucks he took over in the fourth quarter, scoring 12 of his 28. 8/10

Josh Smith: The Josh Smith 2012 All-Star Campaign made a whistle stop in Milwaukee where he made the accustomed statements from long range to the usual, underwhelming effect. He did punctuate his remarks with what was likely the game-winning 3 after Teague passed up a wide open shot off a Joe Johnson double-team. Josh took the hot potato and buried it. 7/10

Jeff Teague: He started out the first quarter completely outplaying Brandon Jennings on both ends. He had 11 points, almost all attacking the basket, in the first quarter before Jannero Pargo subbed in with 3:03 to play. Teague is averaging as many shots at the basket as Derrick Rose, who is vastly more celebrated for it. Teague only had 4 points the rest of the way after Larry Drew, the master extinguisher of the hot hand, took him out in the first. Got to pace the kid after all the minutes he's played in his career. 6/10

Zaza Pachulia: Anybody who had any misgivings about my contention that Zaza can produce as a starting center in the NBA shall henceforth refer to Exhibit A. Pachulia completely outplayed Andrew Bogut, limiting him to 3-10 shooting on mostly straight-up man defense. In 38 minutes Zaza scored 9 points on 4-for-9 shooting with 14 rebounds. 7/10

Marvin Williams: Was quiet as a church mouse on a night when Mike Dunleavy and Ersan Ilyasova had big nights off the bench. Played 22 minutes, understandably the only starter to play fewer than 38. 3/10

Tracy McGrady: Continues to make steady (if rarely spectacular) contributions off the bench, chipping in 4 points, 3 rebounds and 5 huge assists. He had some isolation plays that were derailed by strong Bucks defense but he continues to be a wonderful free agent find. 6/10

Vladimir Radmanovic: After the bench mob gave back most of the lead the Hawks built with a strong opening by the starting unit, Drew wisely chose to ride his starters and not play any bench player other than McGrady more than 9 minutes. He had 6 points on 2-for-3 shooting from 3-point range but would have needed an elevator to get a rebound with Ilyasova in the game. 4/10

Willie Green: 1-for-4, 2 points in 7 minutes. 2/10

Jannero Pargo: Shot well hitting 2-for-3 for 4 points in 7 minutes but was wild with the ball as he came in and instantly killed the early momentum for the Hawks. 2/10

Ivan Johnson: Johnson seems like he's overwhelmed by having earned a rotation spot and playing not to screw up. That's screwing him up. The aggressive offensive play that got him where he is has not been in evidence in several outings, and he passed open a wide-open elbow jumper to start the 4th, the possession ending in a contested Joe Johnson corner three that missed, followed by a Drew Gooden layup at the other end. He had one of his accustomed rookie turnovers where he just lost the ball, although he didn't embarrass himself defensively at center as the backup to Zaza in a game where Jason Collins did not appear. 2/10

The head coach
In this game Drew instantly saw that his bench was not getting it done. Every starter except Williams played close to 40 minutes as Drew did what it took to get an important (and rare) road win to start off a 5-game swing. At the start of the 4th quarter, the Bucks made consecutive layups to cut the Hawks' lead to 70-68. After a Hawks timeout, McGrady set up Smith for an alley-oop on a beautifully-drawn-up play that kept things from getting out of hand. 7/10

A thought regarding the opposition
The Hawks were no doubt the beneficiaries of the unsettled roster situation for Milwaukee, given Stephen Jackson's unhappiness. The team also benefited from Milwaukee playing the second night of a road-and-home back-to-back. However, the Bucks were coming off consecutive road wins at the Knicks and Heat. Despite the loss, they appear to be a team on the rise, making this a quality win.

Fun With a Small Sample of On/Off Numbers

2012-01-23T14:50:00.000-05:00

Everything courtesy BasketballValue.com

The Hawks are almost 11 points better per 100 defensive possessions with Jason Collins on the court so far this season (96 minutes, 188 possessions). Which would be great were the Hawks not a hair more than 17 points worse offensively with Collins on the court.

Putting that latter number into context covering Collins' time as a Hawk:

Collins	Off +/-	Off Poss
2011-12	-17.26	184
2011 playoffs	-12.05	278
2010-11	-1.72	1095
2009-10	-16.8	226

Tracy McGrady and Marvin Williams have shared the court for two offensive and two defensive possessions so far this season. The Hawks outscored opponents 6-3 over those four possessions. Yes, the Hawks are +150 points per 100 possessions with McGrady and Williams both on the court. Greatest duo ever? Let's give it a shot and see what happens.

Assessing the Hawks After the First Quarter of the Season

2012-01-23T11:03:00.000-05:00

[Ed. note -- Matt Tanner is going to check in with his perspective on the Hawks approximately once a quarter this season.]

By Matt Tanner

Thanks to the lockout-abbreviated schedule, we are less than a month into the season but already the Atlanta Hawks have played 17 games, or roughly one quarter of the regular season. While players across the league bemoan the fact they occasionally have to (gasp) play basketball three days in a row! - the nightly slate of marquee games has been rather enjoyable from the fan perspective.

Here locally, the sultry pipes of Bob Rathbun and the familiar non-commentary of commentator Dominique Wilkins are wafting through our living room seemingly every night, so we thought it made sense to pause and take stock of how the team is looking at this stage of the season. We will return 3 more times throughout the year-after every quarter of the season is completed.

A few caveats: My basketball playing days ended in high school and my coaching experience is currently limited to a team of 4th and 5th grade girls, so if you are looking for in-depth commentary on how the team is defending the pick and pop, you are likely to be disappointed. And while statistical analysis was a major part of my professional career for a spell, I know there are those better suited to apply that knowledge to the hardwood so you won't find a lot of that here either.

What will you find? An attempt to take the pulse of this Hawks squad as it navigates a season where most believe they sit precariously on the ledge of that NBA purgatory between the Elite and the Lottery known as Mediocrity.

Without further ado, your Atlanta Hawks so far. . .

The Record: 12-5 (.706)

Current Pace: 47-19 (58-24 in a normal 82 game season)*

*Would be best winning percentage in franchise history. And yes, I know it’s early, but still.

The Opponents: @ New Jersey W, Washington W, New Jersey W, @ Houston L, @ Miami W, @ Chicago L, Miami L, @ Charlotte W, Chicago W, @ New Jersey W, @ Indiana L, Charlotte W, Minnesota W, Toronto W, Portland W, @ Philadelphia L, Cleveland W

The Highlight

The temptation is to go with the night the Hawks went into American Airlines Arena and handed the Heat (at full strength) their first loss, 100-92. However, the more impressive moment came at the tail end of the teams first ever back-to-back-to back, when the Hawks defeated the Bulls 109-94. After playing 8 quarters and 4 overtime periods the two days prior, the Hawks looked fresh and motivated as they outplayed and outhustled the mighty Bulls from the opening tip to the final buzzer. It was a surprising response from a squad that 48 hours earlier had managed to play the least entertaining 3 overtime game in the history of sports.

The Lowlight

An easy, if not nauseating paragraph to write. The loss of “glue guy” Al Horford for what looks to be the remainder of the regular season-and maybe longer-was a crushing blow to a team that had raced to one of the best records in the NBA. No one seems to be giving up on this season just yet (the team is actually 5-1 since the injury, albeit against largely inferior opposition) but one does not replace the former number 3 overall draft pick with Jason Collins and Zaza Pachulia and not expect a significant drop-off.

Runner Up: The aforementioned night in which the Hawks lost a triple overtime thriller (sic) to the Miami Heat while Charles Barkley spent four hours blasting the Hawks on national television.

Everything in Between

Outside of the impressive wins over the Bulls and Heat, the Hawks essentially beat everyone they were supposed to and lost whenever playing anyone on decent on the road. Wins over the Wizards, Raptors, Cavaliers, Bobcats (twice) and Nets (thrice) were nice, if not expected. Beating a solid Portland squad capped off a four game home winning streak, but that streak was sandwiched with road losses to Eastern upstarts Indiana and Philadelphia. The New Year's Eve loss on the road at Houston was by no means shocking (although the Rockets were on the final leg of a back-to-back-to-back).

Stepping Up

At this point it has become cliché to to rip on Joe Johnson and his max contract, and to start the season he was doing little to assuage the criticism. Johnson averaged 16.7 points per game through the first eleven with a healthy Al Horford, and while obviously a small sample size, it would have been his lowest average as a Hawk if he continued at that pace.

Since Horford went down however, Johnson has upped his scoring average to 22 points per game and has been demonstrably more of a leader on the court. Watching Johnson play like Robin when we want so desperately for him to be Batman has always been maddening, but perhaps the Horford injury will force him to seize the spotlight. (And yes, I know that is quite possibly the biggest reach at a silver lining in the history of silver linings).

Letting us Down

Josh Smith and his continued love affair with the 19-foot jumper was going to be our choice for this segment before I remembered the notion that the very definition of insanity was doing the same thing repeatedly while expecting a different result. I have watched Josh Smith repeatedly over the years while expecting him to stop settling for jumpers and instead use his superhuman quickness and jumping ability to become one of the greatest players in the league. He refuses to do it. Continuing to expect this from him is therefore insane on our part, not disappointing.

Since I can’t go with Smith here, let’s just go with Willie Green. Everything about him.

Not a Flash in the Pan?

Though I saw glimpses of his ability during the playoff series against the Bulls last year when he held his own against Derrick Rose, it has been nice to see Jeff Teague step into the point guard role with gusto. His current +/- of +102, while a debatable stat to be sure, ranks among the league leaders and he is averaging 5.4 attempts per game at the rim-while the mercurial Derrick Rose is averaging 5.5. (I am aware that Rose is converting 63.9 percent of these attempts while Teague is converting only 54.7, but expect those to even out somewhat).

The bottom line: While he continues to be a work in progress, through 17 games Teague has done little to dissuade Hawk fans from believing he can be a very good point guard. He is never going to make fans completely forget about passing on Chris Paul and Deron Williams, but he has certainly eased the sting of those mishaps considerably.

Polling the Power Polls

NBA.com's John Schuhmann places the Hawks 13th in his Power Rankings behind Eastern Conference foes Chicago (1st), Philadelphia (4th), Miami (5th), Orlando (7th) and Indiana (11th). SI.com’s Britt Robson also has the Bulls at 1, with the 76ers (3rd), Heat (5th), Pacers (8th), and Magic (9th) all coming in ahead of the Hawks, who he has at 14th. ESPN’s Marc Stein makes it a trifecta for Chicago as he has them at the top of his rankings, followed by Philadelphia (3rd), Miami (5th), Indiana (9th), Orlando (11th) and Atlanta (12th). (Finally, ESPN’s John Hollinger, who does his rankings based on a complex formula and updates them daily, has the Hawks ranked 4th.

The Big Picture

If you looked at things solely on paper (and maybe squinted a bit) you could talk yourself into the Hawks being amongst the East Elite with the likes of Miami and Chicago. (Sorry, we just aren’t buying the 76ers yet). After all, the Hawks split with both of those squads and came tantalizingly close to being 2-0 against both. Of course, in reality, the Horford injury changed the entire tenor of this season and most are predicting the Hawks to fall off considerably the rest of the way.

I doubt the Hawks will rally around the injury of the guy Larry Drew calls the “glue” of the squad and continue to contend for a top seed in the East, but we also don’t anticipate them falling out of the playoff race entirely. But even a precipitous drop in seeding might not be a terrible thing. Is landing the 4th seed and facing off against a Philadelphia or Indiana squad really that great of a reward? There are worse things than landing the 7th seed and getting a healthy Al Horford back in time to open up the playoffs with an exciting series against the Bulls or the Heat. Why put it off a round? This team seems to play better when no one is expecting anything from them anyway.

Looking Ahead

The Hawks are set to embark on a lengthy road trip that will see them play 5 games in 8 days. And while we doubt flying is as tough on NBA teams as it is on the everyday business traveller, the league office did the Hawks no favors as it will head from Atlanta to Milwaukee, down to San Antonio, up to Detroit, back down to New Orleans then back up to Toronto. If you aren’t good at geography, just trust me, it’s a patently ridiculous trip.

Travelling woes aside, the next quarter of the season figures to be far tougher than the first. The Hawks only left the confines of Philips Arena 8 times through the first 17 games, but 11 of the next 16 are on the road. In addition, the average winning percentage of Atlanta’s 17 opponents thus far was .502-only good enough to be the 18th toughest schedule in the league, while the next 16 opponents are a combined .521.

Whatever happens, we will be watching.

Matt Tanner formerly worked the missing kitten beat for a small daily newspaper in Milledgeville, GA before eschewing the journalism world for a corporate gig. Recently he eschewed that gig to sell popsicles. He is an Atlanta native and lifelong Hawks fan.

NBA Playbook: The Art of the Thief

2012-01-22T12:25:00.000-05:00

Brett Koremenos on Jeff Teague's five first half steals in Philadelphia:

Any good thief has either quick hands or great instincts. The special ones, like Jason Kidd, have a combination of both. Against Philadelphia, Teague showed he may be in that elite category.

Initial Feedback: Cleveland Rocked

2012-01-21T21:19:00.000-05:00

Initial feedback: A completely subjective and immediate response to the events of tonight's game, featuring a comment and rating, the latter on a scale of 1 to 10, on every player who saw the floor and the head coach, along with ephemera and miscellany as the author deems necessary.

Your ratings and commentary, dear reader, are welcomed in the comments to this post.

Boxscore

Players

Jeff Teague: At some point I'll get over this but I watched god knows how many hours of Mike Bibby over the past two season and Jamal Crawford last season (Crawford was sublime in his first season courtesy of Mike Woodson, lead guard whisperer, but Larry Drew overused him, last season, as an instrument as blunt as Woodson's switching defense) for no good reason. Teague is not great. He's good. He's useful. If Kirk Hinrich doesn't get hurt in Game 6 against the Magic, we still wouldn't have proof. 7/10

Josh Smith: Struggled, to say the least, from the field, but how good did the offense look when Smith caught the ball int he post, drew defenders, and found the open man. Joe Johnson spotting up and taking the open shot a teammate creates for him is a much more sustainable strategy than Joe Johnson creating a shot off the dribble. The variety of Smith's contributions are wonderful as well. 7.5/10

Joe Johnson: Not to be flip, but Anthony Parker isn't Andre Iguodala. 8/10

Marvin Williams: If I had any confidence that Marvin could build on this performance and/or be encouraged to build on this performance in Milwaukee and San Antonio next week, I'd be excited. I'm not excited. Curious at most. 6/10

Zaza Pachulia: A couple minutes into the third quarter, Zaza had more points, offensive rebounds, and assists in this game than Jason Collins had in 88 minutes (entering the game) this season. By all means, start Collins against the Magic to frustrate Dwight Howard and encourage the Hawks to play sensible team defense. But let's not forget which healthy center is, in all other circumstances, the superior option. 7/10

Tracy McGrady: It's in everyone's best interests for McGrady to pace himself on a night like this. 4/10

Vladimir Radmanovic: It's only the Cavs, but Radmanovic demonstrated why he has to shoot when he catches. For best results, he should probably also not be asked to guard guys as big, young, and athletic as Tristan Thompson. 4/10

Jannero Pargo: Not to damn with faint praise, but Pargo has done as well as could have been reasonably expected in Hinrich's absence. I'd like to see him stick around as an asymmetrical threat on those nights when nothing goes according to plan. 4/10

Willie Green: Willie Green has a long history of comfortably below average NBA play to his name. Kirk Hinrich is going to take some, if not most, of his minutes relatively soon. That being said, if you're trying to create a culture of accountability, why would you not give someone, even someone as limited as Green, a solid first half run against the Cavs, at home, on the second night of a back-to-back, the night after he scored 14 of your team's 76 points, the night after you claimed your team quit on you? 3/10

Ivan Johnson: Didn't do anything special but still made a good argument for being the third guy in the post rotation in typical situations. He remains a fun and good signing. 4/10

Jason Collins: I guess he needs some game action to stay in shape for that mid-February matchup against the Magic, but he remains the least qualified garbage time player in the history of basketball. Approximately. 1/10

Jerry Stackhouse: The longest and least celebrated farewell tour in the history of the NBA? 1/10

Donald Sloan: I'm shocked I've never been compelled to make a Donald Sloan in place of Jannero Pargo argument on the basis of just because he's Jannero Pargo. Tough luck for Sloan. 1/10

The head coach
Blowing out a bad team at home isn't going to quell doubts about last night's postgame reaction but blowing out a bad team shouldn't be taken for granted, either. Perhaps some positive reinforcement of the theoretically best and tightest rotation results. Maybe keeping Jannero Pargo instead of Jerry Stackhouse becomes more likely. Maybe someone notices that the Hawks took a bunch of jump shots but took about half of them from beyond the arc. 6/10

A thought regarding the opposition
I very much hope that Tristan Thompson didn't suffer a serious ankle injury in the last couple minutes. If he did, and Byron Scott left him out on the court to hobble around on one leg, that's a firing offense. It didn't look good to me.

Larry Drew Bandwagon Update: The Wheels Fall Off

2012-01-21T11:03:00.000-05:00

By Buddy Grizzard

In Wednesday's home win over Portland, Jamal Crawford tried to put on a show and steal one from his former team. The Hawks built several leads down the stretch but Crawford kept shooting the Blazers back into it. I was at Phillips and I kept expecting the Hawks to fold in the face of challenge after challenge.

It didn't happen.

Josh Smith and Joe Johnson played with a tremendous amount of heart. Smith was involved in a brutal trench war with LaMarcus Aldridge the whole game, prompting the Western Conference All-Star candidate to say, "I definitely didn't play big down the stretch." Johnson picked Wesley Matthews' pocket and set up Jeff Teague for an alley-oop that put the Hawks ahead 86-80 with 1:25 to play in one of the biggest plays of the game. They seemed to be saying to Crawford, "This isn't your house anymore. This is our house."

I honestly was expecting a letdown against the first quality opponent the team had faced since Al Horford's injury. Instead I watched the Hawks move to 7-1 at home and momentarily take over first place in the Southeast Division and second in the Eastern Conference behind the Bulls. That set up a meeting of division leaders Friday night as the Hawks traveled to face the 76ers, a team that has absolutely had their number in recent history.

I suspect that the 76ers play so hard against the Hawks, not only because many of them have Atlanta ties (Jodie Meeks and Lou Williams won high school championships in Georgia; Thaddeus Young played at Georgia Tech), but also because the Hawks passed over opportunities to draft some of them. In 2005, the Hawks owned the first pick of the second round and spent it on Salim Stoudamire, leaving Williams and Monta Ellis on the board. In 2007, after selecting Horford with the third pick, the Hawks took Acie Law with the 11th pick. Young went 12th to the 76ers. Can you imagine if the Hawks had selected Horford and Young in the same draft?

So Friday in Philly the Hawks faced a motivated, fast, athletic and statistically brilliant team on the road, where Atlanta has accumulated the bulk of its losses. They also faced Doug Collins, who enters the conversation with a guy like Tom Thibodeau when discussing the best coaches in the NBA. Let's just say Larry Drew doesn't enter that conversation. Let's just say Larry Drew is in the conversation about coaches who may not have their contract extended past this season, especially after what he said following the loss.

After a solid first half for the Hawks, the 76ers came out of halftime, where coaches have their best opportunity to make adjustments, and ran the Hawks off the floor. Did Drew do anything to counter Collins' strategy of packing the paint and daring Smith to shoot jumpers? Did he send Ivan Johnson in to counter quickness with quickness on a night when Jason Collins and Zaza Pachulia were ineffective? No. He watched the 76ers put on a brilliant display of shot making as the Hawks went ice cold, then threw his players under the bus, telling media after the game that they quit in the 3rd quarter.

Let's get something straight. There is absolutely no shame in losing on the road to one of the best teams in the league, a team that has shown the ability to run the Hawks off the floor prior to this season, especially when you are missing your third-team All-NBA center. There is absolutly no shame in Joe Johnson, after a string of strong performances, having an off night against possibly the greatest wing defender alive, Andre Iguodala. The Hawks at 11-5 are sitting a half game back of division leader Orlando and have far exceeded expectations.

The Atlanta Hawks did not quit. But Larry Drew needs to stop and re-evaluate where he's at in his career. Coaches who are truly successful in this league, such as Phil Jackson (and I daresay Thibodeau and Collins), are coaches who both respect and earn the respect of their players.

Somebody tell Jeff Schultz the bandwagon needs a tow to the shop.

Quote of the Day -- January 21, 2012

2012-01-21T09:18:00.000-05:00

Larry Drew:

"It got tough for us in the third quarter and we quit. That’s what happened."

Strong words following a game where your team allowed just a point per possession on the road against a team that ranks in the top five in the league in offensive efficiency. The Hawks shot the ball poorly and rebounded worse (or vice-versa, I wouldn't argue the particulars) but those are both single-game risks inherent with this roster, built around jump shooters and reflecting a long-held, institutional belief that rebounding is not a skill.

With Al Horford out, Marvin Williams is clearly the team's third-best rebounder. Either Tracy McGrady or Vladimir Radmanovic is the fourth-best rebounder. And the team is again near the top of the league in long, two-point jump shots attempted per game. That's not accounting for pace.

If you're going to have fewer than 90 offensive possessions a game and you're going to use 26 of those possessions on long, two-point jump shots, then you're going to have nights where you struggle to score and put tremendous pressure on your performance in the other three factors.

Initial Feedback: Those Shots? They're Not Efficient.

2012-01-20T22:01:00.000-05:00

Initial feedback: A completely subjective and immediate response to the events of tonight's game, featuring a comment and rating, the latter on a scale of 1 to 10, on every player who saw the floor and the head coach, along with ephemera and miscellany as the author deems necessary.

Your ratings and commentary, dear reader, are welcomed in the comments to this post.

Boxscore

Players

Jeff Teague: Teague showed both his utility and his limitations. He's an above average player but he lacks the combination of ability, confidence, and experience to take over a game at this point. 5/10

Joe Johnson: Just as there was no shame in Josh Smith getting outplayed by Kevin Love in the win over Minnesota, there's no shame in Joe Johnson getting shut down by an excellent defender like Andre Iguodala. Unfortunately, Johnson wasn't able to contribute in other areas of the game. 3/10

Marvin Williams: I think any discussion of Marvin Williams deserving more playing time can take the night off. 3/10

Josh Smith: 11 jump shots, made just three. Grabbed but five defensive rebounds on a night the Hawks allowed Philadelphia to rebound 15 of their own misses. 4/10

Jason Collins: A contributor to Philadelphia's offensive rebounding excellence. Collins is clearly stretched beyond his abilities when asked to play 19 minutes in a game. He averaged less time than that on the court against the Magic, when his presence had a clear purpose, last season. 2/10

Tracy McGrady: I continue to believe he'd be more effective playing the bulk of his minutes alongside the starters. The 76ers made him look a little old and slow when the Hawks tried to run the offense through him. Still the second most effective Atlanta player on the night. 5/10

Zaza Pachulia: Another Hawk who disappointed on the defensive glass sufficiently to undermine an otherwise acceptable performance. 3/10

Willie Green: The Hawks don't score 70 without Willie Green tonight. A shame to waste this performance. Jamal Crawford would have killed for a return engagement this effective. 5/10

Vladimir Radmanovic: I don't know if it's the missed shots or the irregular playing time, but if Radmanovic doesn't shoot when he's open beyond the three-point line he's limiting his contributions to team success. 2/10

Jannero Pargo: Ehh. 2/10

Ivan Johnson: Meh. 1/10

Jerry Stackhouse: Wha? 1/10

Donald Sloan: Hm. 1/10

The head coach
Doug Collins talks openly about wanting the other team to take jump shots. The Hawks needed a contested 30-footer to hit double digits in the decisive third quarter, a period in which they attempted just three shots in the paint.

It was only a matter of time before the Hawks missed Al Horford, at least for a game. I doubt he would have reduced the team's reliance on jump shots but his ability to defend the pick-and-roll and rebound on the defensive end would have come in handy. 4/10

A thought regarding the opposition
The 76ers were no paragon of offensive efficiency themselves, but the second chances they made for themselves (as well as those they almost thoroughly denied the Hawks) and the fast break points they scored wore the Hawks down. It's impressive to beat a good team so thoroughly despite your own obvious weaknesses.

Bad Wheel on the Bandwagon: A Look At Larry Drew's Asset Management

2012-01-20T17:52:00.000-05:00

By Buddy Grizzard

Last season’s trade of Mike Bibby, Jordan Crawford, Maurice Evans and the Hawks’ 2011 first round draft pick to the Washington Wizards for Kirk Hinrich and Hilton Armstrong has been the subject of much controversy and speculation. One side of the discussion holds that trading consecutive first round draft picks (Jordan Crawford and the 2011 pick the Wizards used on Chris Singleton) for a season-and-a-half rental of Kirk Hinrich mortgaged too much of the franchise’s future for too little potential gain.

My side of the discussion holds that this trade, along with the previously-discussed selection of Jeff Teague in a draft rich with other point guard options, was the masterpiece of Rick Sund’s tenure as Hawks GM. I would maintain this opinion even if Hinrich never played another game for the Hawks because of the way the trade transformed the culture and identity of the franchise, and because of the way Sund used it to save Larry Drew from himself.

As previously noted by Bret Lagree, Drew does not appear to have been Sund’s choice to replace Mike Woodson as coach. Despite speculation that Woodson was fired in part because of his refusal to develop Jeff Teague, Drew continued to play Teague sporadic minutes, following promising appearances with prolonged stretches on the bench. This provides the backdrop for Feb. 23rd of last year, when the five-player trade was executed as the Hawks sought to hold on to the 5th seed in the Eastern Conference playoff picture.

That night, Zaza Pachulia was held out of the Suns game due to ongoing trade discussions. Days later, as the trade deadline passed and Pachulia remained on the team, he expressed to AJC beat writer Michael Cunningham that he was unhappy about his playing time. In the same article, Cunningham quoted Drew saying that he was considering moving Josh Powell ahead of Pachulia in the lineup, the same Josh Powell that ESPN’s John Hollinger claimed multiple front-office types felt was the single worst player in the NBA.

For those of you still trying to decide if the Hawks are better off with Pachulia still on the roster, consider this remarkable statistic. The following is the list of players who ranked in the top 10 in rebounding rate in at least two of the last three postseasons.

Player	Rank:	2011	2010	2009	Salary
Marcus Camby		1st	4th	NR	$9,256,500
Dwight Howard		2nd	7th	1st	$17,885,400
Joakim Noah		4th	5th	5th	$10,000,000
Carlos Boozer		6th	8th	4rd	$13,500,000
Zaza Pachulia		9th	NR	8th	$4,750,000

Pachulia wasn’t the only player struggling for consistent minutes. In the 8 games the Hawks played in February leading up to the trade, Teague’s minutes looked like this: 11, 6, DNP, 21, DNP, 1, 4, 13. Teague started the next 4 games, scoring 10 points in 19 minutes in the loss to the Suns, then contributing 6 points and 6 assists in 26 minutes in a win over Golden State. In a victory over Portland on Feb. 27th he played only 13 minutes as Hinrich joined the team and played 29. He then scored 7 points with 6 rebounds and 2 assists in a loss to Denver on Feb. 28th as Hinrich sat with a calf injury.

Starting with the Hawks home win against Chicago on March 2nd, Hinrich took over the starting point guard role and Teague’s minutes looked like this: 7, 14, 11, 9, 3. On March 12th, with Al Horford out due to a sprained ankle, Drew started a 3-guard lineup. Teague played 44 minutes and matched a career-high with 24 points to go along with 4 rebounds, 3 assists and 5 steals as the Hawks snapped a 4-game losing streak. His minutes remained inconsistent for the remainder of the season, and we all know what happened when he was thrust into a starting role in the playoffs against Chicago after Hinrich’s season-ending injury in Game 6 vs. Orlando.

Fast forward to this year and Teague has comfortably settled into the starting role thanks to Hinrich’s continued absence due to injury. The contrast between this year’s Hawks and the Hawks of Bibby and Jamal Crawford is startling. The latter two were widely considered among the worst defenders in the league, and both rank at the bottom of the league in rebound rate. For Bibby, this is obviously due to diminished ability, as evidenced by his collapse in the playoffs last year. For Crawford, who is listed at 6-5 and noted for his quickness, this is obviously a matter of effort. Once Hinrich returns, the transformation from switching-by-necessity to defensive-effort-at-all-positions will be complete.

And it wouldn’t have happened if Sund hadn’t made a calculated move to get rid of Bibby. Is there any doubt in anybody’s mind that if Bibby remained with the team after the trade deadline that he would have started against the Magic and the Hawks would have been out after one series? Meanwhile Jordan Crawford is shooting .268 from 3-point range for the Wizards, Singleton is averaging 4.8 points and both look years away from being contributors on a winning team.

As soon as Hinrich is able to go full speed, I have no doubt he will once again replace Teague as the starting point guard, even though he has trouble guarding quick point guards and has a very pedestrian assist-to-turnover ratio. I feel Hinrich would help the Hawks more as a backup at both guard positions but I’m not concerned… it will be a good problem to have. Zaza’s situation remains unsettled even with the huge need at center created by Horford’s injury. He sat the final 7 minutes of Wednesday’s win over Portland, despite contributing 5 points and 11 rebounds in 27 minutes, in favor of Ivan Johnson. The latter sparked the Hawks to a win over the T-Wolves but didn’t show much in 13 minutes against the Blazers.

Another good problem to have is the sudden log jam at small forward. Marvin Williams may be in the process of having a career year but his minutes have been severely cut into by contributions from Ivan Johnson, Tracy McGrady and Vladimir Radmanovic. Marvin will just have to keep playing well and get his when and where he can. I’m less inclined to criticize Drew for under-utilizing a player when there isn’t an obvious, glaring need at the position as there was at point guard last year with Bibby and at center this year without Horford.

Initial Feedback: Welcome Back

2012-01-18T22:58:00.000-05:00

Blazers Pose Hazard To Early Bandwagon Riding

2012-01-18T16:06:00.001-05:00

By Buddy Grizzard

After Atlanta Journal-Constitution columnist Jeff Schultz, caught up in the euphoria of the Hawks current win streak, decided to launch an early Coach of the Year campaign on behalf of Larry Drew and I suspect the euphoria would be greater if Drew hadn't charitably donated a game to the Heat earlier this season, I thought I'd better chime in about the importance of today's match-up with the visiting Portland Trail Blazers.

The Hawks, despite having played the Bulls and Heat twice each, currently rank 24th out of 30 NBA teams in opponents' strength of schedule. The Blazers, meanwhile, are 8-5 against the second-toughest schedule in the league. I suggest that, before we get too excited about Josh Smith's recent hot shooting against pitiful opposition, and before we mail off those Coach of the Year ballots, we see how the Hawks perform against the toughest opponent they have faced since losing Al Horford to injury. If the Hawks beat the Blazers tonight, then beat the 76ers on Friday, keep a seat warm for me on that Larry Drew bandwagon.

Despite Portland's well chronicled struggles in the back-court, you have to figure Jamal Crawford will be ready to play in his first game back at Phillips Arena since the Hawks declined to offer him a contract extension. What most concerns me, however, is Drew's recent flirtation with Jason Collins in the starting lineup. I intend no disrespect to Collins...I don't think the Hawks make it out of the first round last year without his defense on Dwight Howard. But I thought the East semifinals against Chicago proved beyond a doubt that Collins doesn't have a role when the Hawks face an athletic front line that plays facing the basket. Here are some notes on the production of Atlanta's bench big men in that series:

In Games 1-3, neither Collins nor Zaza Pachulia played more than 10 minutes or made a major contribution as the Bulls took a 2-1 series lead. Game 4 saw the return of Collins as a starter in place of Marvin Williams as Drew deployed his "big" lineup. Collins finished with 4 points and no rebounds in 12 minutes on a night when the Hawks won 100-88 behind Josh Smith's monster 23 point, 16 rebound and 8 assist night. Possibly more significant was that Zaza played 26 minutes, scored 5 points and collected 9 rebounds.

For Game 5, Collins again got the starting nod, played 15 minutes, went scoreless and collected two rebounds. In 23 minutes, Zaza went 5-for-6, scored 13 points, collected 4 rebounds and was the only Hawk with a positive +/- as the Bulls won 95-83.

In Games 4 and 5, Collins' brief appearances to start the 1st and 3rd quarters neither significantly hurt nor helped the Hawks. But in Game 6, as Drew employed a similar substitution pattern for the third consecutive game, it appears Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau figured out how to exploit it. Collins opened the game guarding Carlos Boozer, who floated out to mid range and scored 7 early points as the Bulls built an 11-4 lead. Seeing that Collins had no chance to guard Boozer on the perimeter, Horford switched onto Boozer and Collins began checking Joakim Noah.

Now, I don't know how much you've watched Noah play, but he is not usually called on to initiate the offense from outside the three point line. On this occasion, Noah isolated just left of the top of the circle and drove right around Collins for a layup and a 19-11 Bulls lead. A very obvious and predictable strategy of pulling Collins away from the basket and exploiting his lack of foot speed accounted for 9 of the Bulls first 19 points.

In every game of the series, the team that lead after one quarter went on to win the game. The Bulls lead 27-17 after the first quarter of Game 6, won the game 93-73 and headed to the Eastern Conference Finals. Zaza played 23 minutes, scored only 1 point but collected 13 rebounds. He again had the best +/- of any Hawk to play at least 10 minutes (he lead the team in +/- for the series). According to John Hollinger's Playoff Stats, Zaza finished the 2011 postseason ranked 9th in rebounding rate, trailing only Noah (4th) and Boozer (6th) among those who played in the Bulls-Hawks series.

I've recently analyzed Zaza's potential to produce in an increased role this season in the wake of Horford's injury. But now Drew says he prefers to bring Zaza off the bench because he likes his rapport with Vladimir Radmanovic. If Collins starts (or plays) against the Blazers, watch to see if they try to draw him away from the basket. Watch to see if the man guarding him cheats with help defense. I respect the fact that Collins chose to re-sign with the Hawks when other offers were available, and that he increased his strength and conditioning during the lockout. But the Blazers are not a team he has a role against.

Buddy Grizzard formerly toiled as the sports editor for several small, local newspapers, has been a producer for CBS and Clear Channel radio and worked as a videographer for CBS Sports website MaxPreps.com.

For More Than 10 Days Now, Josh Smith Has Been Making Jump Shots

2012-01-17T18:20:00.000-05:00

Last season, despite it not making him a more effective offensive player, I became convinced that Josh Smith had improved as a jump shooter. He made 39% of his long two-point jumpers, almost one-third of his three-point attempts, and 72.5% of his free throws. Broad evidence of an improved stroke, that.

So far this season, Smith is making 42% of his long two-point jump shots. That's better than the league average. Smith is also making just 48.7% of his free throw attempts this season and just 6 of his last 19 attempts from the charity stripe. This while he's been on fire from the perimeter, riding a 27-50 (including his made three-pointer of the season) streak from outside of 16 feet over the last seven games.

What to make of the paradox? Who knows. But I did write a post about Smith 15 games into last season. He was making more than 40% of his long two-pointers at that point of the season and he almost kept that rate up for the entire season.

Initial Feedback: A Win Is a Win Is a Win

2012-01-16T18:49:00.000-05:00

Initial feedback: A completely subjective and immediate response to the events of tonight's game, featuring a comment and rating, the latter on a scale of 1 to 10, on every player who saw the floor and the head coach, along with ephemera and miscellany as the author deems necessary.

Your ratings and commentary, dear reader, are welcomed in the comments to this post.

Boxscore

Players
Jeff Teague: An uneven performance like this, especially in the zone offense, stokes regret over the developmental opportunities wasted the past two seasons. I don't think the good plays outweighed the bad today, but the desire to make good plays never wavered. 5/10

Joe Johnson: His relentless attacks on Jose Calderson in the Toronto zone in the third quarter was as positive a key to the victory as anything. The three shots he blocked should not be overlooked, either. Johnson blocked 12 shots in a little over 5400 minutes over the last two seasons. 9/10

Marvin Williams: Thus far, his return to to active duty has been all setup, no punchline. Take it away, Gareth. I guess he has to make some shots in order to be able to stay on the court, continue getting to the foul line and grabbing rebounds. 5/10

Josh Smith: At this point, the Hawks just need to get him 20 or more shots a game to dilute the effects of the jump shots he is going to take no matter what. I resolve to stop marking him based on an idealized version of Josh Smith who understands his strengths and weaknesses and to begin marking him on whether or not he makes the shots he attempts. Thankfully, there's no shot selection element to rebounding, which has been excellent as his free throw shooting has been poor this season. 8/10

Jason Collins: I don't know why he started both halves. Perhaps, after the Timberwolves game, Larry Drew was curious if bad teams knew that Collins couldn't defend the pick-and-roll. 2/10

Vladimir Radmanovic: I don't know why he didn't play in the first half nor wy he was assigned to guard Leandro Barbosa in the third quarter. Nice shooting. 3/10

Zaza Pachulia: Another very solid supporting performance. Al Horford is efficient, but he's not 6 points on 0 field goal attempts efficient. 4/10

Tracy McGrady: His performance was fine and his return welcome, but if that's all Tracy McGrady can play, then Tracy McGrady doesn't need to be playing this early in the season. 4/10

Willie Green: If you absolutely, positively have to have somebody less likely to score and far, far less likely to grab a rebound than Marvin Williams on the court for the entire fourth quarter, then Willie Green's your man. Today was the third time this season that Green has played at least 18 minutes in a game without grabbing a rebound. And people worried about replacing Jamal Crawford. 2/10

Ivan Johnson: Still fun, but it was not a good day for America's banned in Korea sweetheart on either end of the floor. His matador defense on DeMar DeRozan's fourth quarter layup was the nadir. 2/10

Jannero Pargo: Was +8 in 5:12 and a little over an hour after his appearance, I have no memory of it. 2/10

The head coach
My not understanding does not constitute a valid criticism, much less a coherent and incisive one. I don't get a lot of what Larry Drew did in this game and don't really want to replay the game with Josh Smith taking ten long, two-point jumpers and counting on the Raptors to miss 9 of 12 shots in the paint in the fourth quarter. A win's a win and style points are going to be rare this season. 6/10

A thought regarding the opposition

Quote of the Day -- January 15, 2012

2012-01-15T10:33:00.000-05:00

Ivan Johnson:

"My thing is, I don’t really watch basketball so I don’t know who anybody is. So when I match up against them, they are a regular player. I know the major players like LeBron, Kobe, Wade but all the extra ones I don’t know. Even if I did know them, I’m not going to be afraid. We are playing basketball."

Doesn't really watch basketball? Doesn't know who anybody is? No wonder 'Nique likes him so much.

Initial Feedback: Comeback

2012-01-14T21:47:00.000-05:00

Initial feedback: A completely subjective and immediate response to the events of tonight's game, featuring a comment and rating, the latter on a scale of 1 to 10, on every player who saw the floor and the head coach, along with ephemera and miscellany as the author deems necessary.

Your ratings and commentary, dear reader, are welcomed in the comments to this post.

Boxscore

Players
Jeff Teague: Checking Ricky Rubio was a challenge for Teague, and Jeff did commit six turnovers, but he was awfully strong with the ball in his hands and was the one constant on the floor during the comeback and finish. 7/10

Joe Johnson: As long as opponents send the unqualified likes of Tyrus Thomas and Wesley Johnson at him, he can pick up his share of the offensive slack caused by Al Horford's absence. His unusually strong effort on the glass the last two games deserves commendation as well. 7/10

Marvin Williams: I hope his minutes were limited because he's not all the way back from his ankle injury. A healthy Marvin Williams shouldn't split minutes with Tracy McGrady, much less Willie Green. Eight rebounds in less than 19 minutes. 6/10

Josh Smith: It's no embarrassment to be outplayed by Kevin Love, not even to the degree Love outplayed Smith tonight. It's just one game. To be outplayed so thoroughly by Ivan Johnson, purely on the basis of Johnson's effort and his unwillingness to do stupid things explains why "the Hawks can be a player in free agency after Josh Smith's contract expires" exists as a scenario. If Josh Smith had played more tonight, the Hawks would have lost. 3/10

Zaza Pachulia: Made Darko look more pedestrian than normal. Fought Pekovic to a draw. 4/10

Ivan Johnson: Saved the team's bacon, down to the final possession, where he turned Joe Johnson's inability to create off the dribble against a set defense and Josh Smith's overwhelming ability to locate the lowest-percentage shot possible for himself into the game-winning points. Stood up to Kevin Love on both ends of the floor. Didn't always win that battle, but he fought it and his willingness to do so changed the course of the game. 7/10

Vladimir Radmanovic: He looks so much better on a good team, where his basketball instincts and quick hands can contribute even when he's not making shots. Would be nice if he made more shots. 4/10

Willie Green: It's great that those fourth quarter shots went in, but I suspect that will only precipitate him taking shots like those in a future game and getting more typical results. Sort of like how Josh Smith's relative hot streak as a jump shooter informed his performance tonight. 5/10

Jason Collins: Despite attempting three set shots and fumbling an in-bounds pass to Ricky Rubio under the Hawks basket, Collins had a positive impact on the game because Minnesota's zone offense was terrible and they didn't force him to defend in space when matched up against Kevin Love. Apparently Rick Adelman didn't watch the playoffs last season. Jason Collins isn't going to let Kevin Love score in the post. 4/10

Jannero Pargo: Still a dark horse to be cut before contracts become guaranteed, but his stints are becoming so short, you'd think he was a young point guard the Hawks drafted in the first round. 1/10

Donald Sloan: Given 72 seconds' opportunity to play hard. Mission accomplished. 1/10

The head coach
You're not going to brag about needing to make drastic adjustments to get back in a home game against the Timberwolves, but you get credit for stealing a win from unlikely circumstances. And, with the win, gets the benefit of the doubt regarding Marvin Williams' minutes. 7/10

A thought regarding the opposition
Clearly two-fifths of the way to a starting lineup.

Can Zaza Replace Al Horford's Production in a Starting Role?

2012-01-13T17:43:00.000-05:00

By Buddy Grizzard

Can Zaza Pachulia come anywhere near replacing Al Horford's production in a starting role at center for the Atlanta Hawks? The numbers suggest he can. Horford and Pachulia both rank in the top 20 among centers in points per 48 minutes:

Points per 48 minutes / Positional rank

Horford: 18.8 / 14th
Pachulia: 15.8 / 19th

But if you look at John Hollinger's player statistics for centers, another measure pops out: rebounding rate. This is a measure of the percentage of rebounds that are available while a player is on the floor that the player collects.

Rebounding rate / Positional rank

Horford: 13.1% / 43rd
Pachulia: 17.2% / 20th

The thing that concerns you is Pachulia's tendancy to commit fouls. He can't replace Horford's production if he can't stay on the floor. One of the absurdities of The Horford Treatment, Larry Drew's proclivity for sitting Horford when he's not in foul trouble, is that Horford has historically had a very low rate of committing fouls. This season:

Fouls per 48 minutes / Positional rank

Horford: 2.9 / 66th
Pachulia: 5.4 / 38th

Buddy Grizzard formerly toiled as the sports editor for several small, local newspapers, has been a producer for CBS and Clear Channel radio and worked as a videographer for CBS Sports website MaxPreps.com

Al Horford Injury Reaction Roundup

2012-01-13T16:39:00.000-05:00

Zach Lowe addresses Al Horford's impending absence in terms of Horford's successfully symbiotic relationship with Josh Smith:

The per-36-minute stats of Atlanta’s backups look nice, but there’s a reason Horford and Smith are the guys actually playing 36 minutes. Atlanta’s other big-man options all have limitations that will get exposed with increased playing time. None even approaches Horford as a two-way contributor capable of greasing the wheels on both ends.

Horford isn’t blameless when it comes to the fact that his numbers are down. Coaching and shot selection have contributed, but Horford still hasn’t developed an efficient post game that would make him a more consistent go-to player on offense. Still, he’s one of the game’s best pick-and-pop threats, and the combination of his jumper, screening ability and passing — elite for a big man — has helped Atlanta’s slow-poke offensive flow. That’s what Atlanta coach Larry Drew means when he refers to Horford as the teams’ “glue guy.”

He’s also talking about defense, where Smith and Horford are used to keeping the Hawks afloat with their combination of quickness, size and smarts. Go through all 30 NBA teams and ask yourself how many have two starting big men they can peg as very good contributors on both ends — two guys who don’t hurt your spacing, rebounding, passing, pick-and-roll coverage or any other key aspect of the game. There aren’t many. Horford can defend the pick-and-roll in lots of different ways depending on the opponent. He ranked as one of the league’s very best defenders last season, per Synergy Sports, and he’s among the top bigs when it comes to jumping out on point guards (or sliding along with them above the foul line) and retreating to cover a big man on pick-and-rolls. He and Smith can switch onto smaller players, and they are both good rebounders.

Remove either, and the house of cards is wobbly.

Tom Ziller opines that between the horrid bottom of the Eastern Conference and Atlanta's lack of cap and roster flexibility, Horford's injury may not have much impact:

It's very difficult to imagine the Hawks falling out of the playoff chase because of the seriously stratified nature of the East right now.

...

I actually picked the Hawks to miss the playoffs due to the Bucks' improvement before the season, but it's highly unlikely that even without Horford Atlanta will turn into one of the East's sure-thing lottery teams.

...

[T]he Hawks have been in this position for the past two seasons, and at every turn have committed to the current core. That massive J.J. contract was inked just about 18 months ago; the world reacted to it in such negative fashion precisely because with Johnson at a huge, flexibility-killing salary, Atlanta wouldn't have much opportunity to improve. But that didn't stop Rick Sund and the Hawks. So there would seem to be little chance that the Hawks would execute a sell-off at this point, with the playoffs in play and the hope for next year remaining.

...

If a contender wants to take on Hinrich (an expiring contract) for the stretch run, Atlanta might not even need a first-round pick in exchange. Teague and Tracy McGrady seem to have the point guard spot under control. Williams could be another potential asset to trade if Atlanta has a shot at adding a center more refined than Zaza Pachulia. Johnson is too difficult to trade in such an uncertain environment, in my estimation, and Teague isn't going anywhere. So the answer is probably no. The Hawks should remain one of the least active franchises in the NBA.

John Hollinger goes back to 2006 to assess the potential impact of Horford's injury on the Hawks:

Having entered Thursday's play at 7-4, Atlanta likely needs to go 26-29 or thereabouts over the final 55 games without Horford to make the playoffs.

The Hawks don't need to be great without Horford to make the playoffs; they just need to be average. Which doesn't sound that imposing until you remember they're at a .375 pace in the previous 104 games this nucleus has played without him.

For one night at least, they pulled it off. Playing with a skeleton crew -- in addition to Horford, the Hawks lined up minus Williams, Tracy McGrady and Kirk Hinrich -- Atlanta still had more than enough to blow away Charlotte 111-81 on Thursday.

"I think we certainly can make a playoff push," Drew said before the game.

While his tone sounded somewhere south of certain, on paper one can see who might hold down the fort. For starters, Smith is playing like an All-Star and has become the team's top per-minute scorer; he led the way Thursday with 30 points and 13 boards. In his current five-game mini-tear, he's eclipsed 23 points four times and shot 63.1 percent from the floor. Even his 20-footer is finding the net of late, although one fears this will only encourage him.

Johnson has been there the past five years, of course, and he was no slouch either Thursday with 23 points, eight boards and seven dimes. Behind those two, Jeff Teague has solidified the point guard spot, Williams was having a career year before spraining his ankle last week, and the spare parts -- most notably low-rent pickups McGrady and Vladimir Radmanovic -- have been unexpectedly productive.

And of course, the Hawks still have options. Drew talked to the media for 10 minutes, and it was hard not to notice the paper on his desk listing every NBA center. The Hawks have two true 5s on the roster with Pachulia and Jason Collins but clearly will explore their options in the coming days to round out the roster. Unsigned free agent Kyrylo Fesenko would be one potential option.

Unfortunately, their hands probably are tied when it comes to replacing Horford with anywhere close to similar production. Atlanta is already over the luxury tax threshold -- it can get under by paring down a couple of nonguaranteed contracts, but the Hawks gave out all minimum contracts this offseason partly to avoid the tax man.

As a result, it's mostly on these four -- Smith, Johnson, Williams and Pachulia -- to show how far they've come in the past half-decade.

"All the guys are going to have to raise their games," Horford said. "It starts with Joe and Josh."

So far, so good. If they can get this team to the playoffs, hope remains for what they might accomplish afterward with Horford in the fold. But .375 won't get it done.

Hardwood Paroxysm: Let's Get Irrationally Angry About Al Horford's Shoulder Injury

2012-01-13T07:26:00.001-05:00

The one, the only, Noam Schiller:

The world has become a cold, dark place today.

Al Horford was the thing. He was the one thing. A pit of darkness, despair and isolation basketball lives in the depths of the Phillips Arena, rearing its ugly head 82 nights, plus playoffs, every year. In the form of a Mike Bibby or a Willie Green, a 20 second Joe Johnson dribble-fest or a Josh Smith tease, it was always there, ready to suck the life out of us. On a Tuesday night against the Nets, or in the middle of May against the Bulls, it was and still is awful.

And Al Horford was here to protect us. They tried to stop him. They wouldn’t pass him the ball, and they’d let him defend bigger players, and yet he was there. Knocking down that baseline 20 footer. Hedging on that pick and roll.

He won’t be doing that anymore, this season. Enjoy Zaza Pachulia.

If you think this is harsh, don’t. I love Jeff Teague, I do. Josh Smith is one of the most fascinating basketball players to exist in my lifetime, a trainwreck wrapped in an angelic presence marinated in nutjob sauce sprinkled with world-class athleticism tied together by a headband. Joe Johnson is acceptable, I guess, and Ivan Johnson is the new “I CAN’T BELIEVE HE’S AN NBA PLAYER I LOVE HIM SO MUCH LET’S TYPE HIS NAME ALL THE TIME” dude. And we respect each and every one of them, what they do on basketball courts, what they give us as fans.

We also hate watching it. We didn’t hate watching Al Horford. We loved watching Al Horford.

Stupid lockout.

Initial Feedback: First Test Passed

2012-01-12T21:59:00.001-05:00

Quote of the Day -- January 12, 2012

2012-01-12T07:39:00.000-05:00

Larry Drew:

"[I]n that third quarter, we just couldn’t do anything right."

Gameflow

Shot Chart

Initial Feedback: Separation Anxiety

2012-01-11T21:21:00.000-05:00

Year of the Point Guard

2012-01-11T17:22:00.000-05:00

By Buddy Grizzard

A few years back, in an NBA draft rich with point guard prospects, the Atlanta Hawks made a selection that would dramatically impact the team's fortunes to the present day. You know which draft I'm talking about. No, not the 2005 NBA draft when the Hawks selected Marvin Williams ahead of Deron Williams and Chris Paul. I'm talking about the 2009 NBA draft when each of 8 NBA teams (including the Hawks) drafted its current starting point guard.

The Hawks were looking to add depth behind Mike Bibby, and this was the draft to do it. There was so much potential at the point guard position that Minnesota Timberwolves president of basketball operations David Kahn couldn't help himself; He drafted three of them, starting with Ricky Rubio at #5, followed immediatly by Jonny Flynn at #6. Rubio has exceeded expectations and become a sensation in his rookie campaign while Flynn is considered possibly the biggest bust of this draft (and has since been traded to Houston). Kahn's third selection was the #18 pick, just ahead of where the Hawks would select at #19. More on that in a moment.

At #4, prior to Rubio's selection, the Sacramento Kings selected Tyreke Evans, who is actually a shooting guard but starts for the Kings at point guard (John Salmons starts at two guard). The Golden State Warriors followed by drafting future starter Stephen Curry at #7, the Milwaukee Bucks selected Brandon Jennings at #10 and the Philadelphia 76ers grabbed Jrue Holiday at #17. With those players off the board, plenty of point guard prospects remained for Kahn's third selection of the first round. Wake Forest's Jeff Teague, North Carolina's Ty Lawson and UCLA's Darren Collison all remained available. Would Kahn go 3-for-3 on point guards?

Lawson was my sleeper pick for that draft. ESPN's Chad Ford had Teague more highly rated, but I had a feeling Lawson would make his mark in the league. Sure enough, Denver executed a draft-day trade, sending a future first round pick to the T-Wolves for the rights to Lawson. Rick Sund followed by drafting Teague for the Hawks and the rest, as they say, is history. Teague and Lawson have both emerged from what was considered a weak draft (aside from Blake Griffin) to become legitimate starters.

Collison ended up going at #21 to the New Orleans Hornets to back up Chris Paul before being traded to the Indiana Pacers, where he presently starts. Honorable mention goes to Jonesboro native Toney Douglas, drafted at #29, who briefly started for the Knicks this year before giving way to Iman Shumpert. I thought it would be interesting to compare the current stats and positional ranks for these '09 draftees from "The Year of the Point Guard."

Name	PPG	Rank	APG	Rank	A/TO	Rank	SPG	Rank	3PT%	Rank
Jennings	18.1	2	5.4	19	2.57	19	1.89	7	29.2	29
Evans	17.1	4	3.8	35	1.33	46	1.2	19	21.1	NR
Lawson	15.8	8	6.0	14	2.73	12	1.9	6	33.3	23
Curry	15.2	10	5.6	16	1.56	42	1.8	8	40.9	7
Holiday	14.5	14	4.5	25	1.76	38	1.78	9	38.2	12
Teague	11.9	19	5.6	16	2.95	10	2.1	3	47.4	2
Collison	11	23	5.4	18	2.58	18	1.11	21	50	1
Rubio	9.9	29	7.4	9	2.39	24	1.6	11	47.1	3

Lawson is having himself a nice career but Jeff Teague is making Rick Sund look smarter by the minute.

Buddy Grizzard formerly toiled as the sports editor for several small, local newspapers, has been a producer for CBS and Clear Channel radio and worked as a videographer for CBS Sports website MaxPreps.com

Initial Feedback: The Sweep of Newark

2012-01-09T22:09:00.001-05:00

Initial feedback: A completely subjective and immediate response to the events of tonight's game, featuring a comment and rating, the latter on a scale of 1 to 10, on every player who saw the floor and the head coach, along with ephemera and miscellany as the author deems necessary.

Your ratings and commentary, dear reader, are welcomed in the comments to this post.

Boxscore

Players
Jeff Teague: Got in the lane, finished or found the open man, and knocked down open jumpers. None of the Hawks played a great defensive game, but Teague's block on Deron Williams deserves commendation. 8/10

Joe Johnson: Led the devastating jump shot barrage and helped put the game away with a couple of his patented, contested, made fall-away jumpers in the fourth quarter. Played some solid on-the-ball defense but his tendency toward immobile ball-watching didn't help the team's effort to defend the three-point line or on the defensive glass. 7/10

Josh Smith: That so many jumpers went in doesn't make them better shots but, at the risk of rationalizing Smith's shot selection, fewer of the jumpers are coming as a result of him floating a step inside the three-point line. I doubt there's a real difference between Smith shooting 19-footers and 21-footers, but the former creates a more aesthetically pleasing viewing experience. 9/10

Al Horford: More than once, he seemed oddly unprepared to shoot his patented face-up jumper when left wide open, resulting in just 4 of his 10 jumpers going in. Struggled to close out on shooters when the Nets went small in the second half and his absence in the defensive paint was felt on the boards. 6/10

Vladimir Radmanovic: Solid fill-in effort from a guy who may have to fill in for Tracy McGrady as often as not. His ability to spread the floor is a great asset to the starters, individually, and the team's offense as a whole. No Marvin Williams on the glass, Radmanovic made an effort and met reasonably mild expectations. 5/10

Zaza Pachulia: It's a fine line for Zaza, but when his shots aren't going in when he gets multiple chances to score, he's on the wrong side of the line. 3/10

Tracy McGrady: For all that McGrady's already added to the Hawks this season, the team would be better off with him playing few minutes and providing little value the rest of the regular season if that he means he's able to contribute in the playoffs. 2/10

Jannero Pargo: Five points in six minutes. Making the most of limited minutes until Hinrich returns. 3/10

Willie Green: Any night Willie Green doesn't hurt you, it's a good night. 3/10

Ivan Johnson: Two minutes, no impact. 1/10

The head coach
It's interesting that he chose to ride his starters for the first time this season against the Nets. Obviously the absence of Williams and the effective absence of McGrady influenced his decision. The Hawks attempted a ton of jump shots (55 of 78 field goal attempts by my count) but New Jersey's poor, passive defense makes that less of an indictment than it might otherwise be. Even against the Nets, three minutes is too long a time in the NBA to attempt to run out the clock with a 10 point lead. I won't miss the trapping defense from the second unit when it goes away, either. 7/10

A thought regarding the opposition
Avery Johnson deserves credit for keeping his team in the game after the disastrous first quarter. He made good use of his limited (both in numbers and ability) personnel to construct an offensive attack that challenged the Hawks. That there was no way to construct a defensive resistance says more about the personnel on hand than Johnson's tactical acumen.

Initial Feedback: Three-and-a-half Games in Three Days? No Problem.

2012-01-07T22:04:00.001-05:00

Buddy Grizzard wrote tonight's initial feedback.

Initial feedback: A completely subjective and immediate response to the events of tonight's game, featuring a comment and rating, the latter on a scale of 1 to 10, on every player who saw the floor and the head coach, along with ephemera and miscellany as the author deems necessary.

Your ratings and commentary, dear reader, are welcomed in the comments to this post.

Boxscore

Players
Josh Smith: The record will show that Josh Smith's outside shooting was a statistical outlier in this game. If you looked at the numbers on Smith's shooting from 16 feet-and-out, you can understand why we cringe. But if you insist on firing away despite the evidence you maybe ought not to, you will eventually have games like this. I could not have predicted the disparity in energy (in favor of the Hawks), the home team having played three games and four overtime periods in three nights. Josh Smith lead the way as the Hawks out-hustled the Bulls from the opening tip to the final buzzer. Some of his finishes were below the rim in the second half as his legs may have started to get heavy. But he did the job, even returning in what should have been garbage time in the fourth quarter as the bench's wobbly performance downgraded this win from a laugher to simply a dominating performance. Had a game high 25 points and 6 blocks to go with 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 steals and only 1 turnover in a modest 34 minutes. 9/10

Marvin Williams: Played only 6 minutes due to an ankle sprain. Incomplete

Al Horford: Scored 14 points on 7-8 shooting, added 7 rebounds and 4 assists with only 1 turnover. Had a huge block on Deng as the Hawks outplayed the Bulls on both ends. Second on the team with a +/- of +29. 8/10

Joe Johnson: Played only a modest 31 minutes but definitely looked tired in the second half. Still lead the team at +35 as he scored 17 on 7/14 shooting and added 4 rebounds, 5 assists and 2 steals against 3 turnovers. I simply cannot account for how a player that has exerted so much effort over the last three nights can still help the Hawks out-hustle a deeper, more well-rested opponent. 8/10

Jeff Teague: Will the real Jeff Teague please stand up? Scored 12 on 6-for-8 shooting while adding 2 rebounds, 8 assists and 5 steals against zero turnovers. After listless performances in the previous two games, Teague had his swagger back. 8/10

Vladimir Radmanovic: The record will show that Vlad Rad's 5-for-5 night from three point range was NOT a statistical outlier. He was among the league leaders in three point shooting last season and good shooters will have these games, even after a series of off-shooting nights. I've observed that even when Vlad's shot is not falling, he's still hustling and getting involved in other ways. He did all of the above tonight in 28 minutes, playing significant minutes with the starting unit. 8/10

Willie Green: Scored 10 on 5-for-10 shooting but was on the floor when Chicago did most of what little damage they were able to do. He was -18 for the game. 6/10

Jannero Pargo: I've criticized Pargo for his lack of defensive speed but not defensive effort. The Bulls were so listless tonight that Pargo's defense looked credible. Still Pargo failed to contribute statistically on an 0-for-3 night in 18 minutes. 4/10

Ivan Johnson: About what you would expect from an unheralded rookie nobody had ever heard of two months ago. He traveled on his first touch, went 1-for-5 and had 2 turnovers. His biggest sin was that his play forced Josh Smith to re-enter the game during what should have been garbage time in the fourth quarter to ensure the Bulls didn't assemble a run. 2/10

Zaza Pachulia: Played more like he did in the playoffs last year given more minutes (20). Scored 6 and added 5 rebounds with only 1 turnover and two fouls. If you play him, he will produce. 6/10

Tracy McGrady, Jerry Stackhouse, Jason Collins: Garbage minutes were rendered inconsequential by the lift Vlad provided. Incomplete

The head coach
After disasters on the road against Chicago and at home against short-handed Miami, I was starting to be of the opinion that Drew's career as the Hawks coach might end prematurely. But one thing you can judge coaches on is the way they get their players to respond after tough losses and how their teams handle adversity. The Hawks have earned that split against Miami and Chicago that I talked about previously, and the Hawks can once again hold their heads up and be mentioned among the Eastern Conference contenders. 8/10

Buddy Grizzard formerly toiled as the sports editor for several small, local newspapers, has been a producer for CBS and Clear Channel radio and worked as a videographer for CBS Sports website MaxPreps.com

Reality Check

2012-01-07T13:39:00.000-05:00

It really is pretty simple for Josh Smith:

Opp	FGA at rim	FGA 15'+	Pts	TS%
@CHA	12	3	23	59.5%
MIA	7	7	17	40.6%
@CHI	5	8	15	48.0%
@MIA	5	7	9	34.9%
@HOU	2	7	12	38.7%
NJ	3	5	9	39.8%
WASH	5	6	15	53.3%
@NJ	2	4	5	31.7%

On the season, Josh Smith is making 65.9% of his shots at the rim and 25.5% of his shots outside of 15 feet. He's attempted six more of the latter.

Al Horford has received a lot of criticism in the comments here. Fairly, in terms of his usage and scoring rate being down from last season:

Horford	Pts/36	Usg%
2010-11	15.7	19.7
2011-12	13.4	16.9

Unfairly, if you ask me, due to how he has, when he's touched the ball, addressed the valid criticisms of his offensive game from last season, specifically his reliance on the face-up jumper and an inability to get to the foul line:

Horford	%FGA at rim	%FGA 15'+	FT Rate	TS%
2010-11	26.1%	40.9%	16.3	58.7%
2011-12	42.1%	27.6%	27.6	58.0%

Despite making just 72.4% of his free throws and 30% of his long, two-point jumpers so far this season, Horford's commitment to getting to the line has kept his efficiency constant. If those two rates return to normal, Horford's scoring rate will rise even if his usage rate fails to.

Jeff Teague has had consecutive dreadful defensive games but, despite going 4-22 from the floor, I'm not concerned with his offense. Teague earned 16 assists against 5 turnovers in the overtime games against Miami and Charlotte. Furthermore, 12 of Teague's 22 field goal attempts came at the rim. He won't continue to make just 25% of those opportunities.

Let's also keep in mind that Teague was in no way groomed to become an NBA starter during his first two seasons in the league. There will be some growing pains and inconsistency. Even with a couple of poor performances in a row, Teague's averaging 30% more assists per minute than Mike Bibby did last season and Bibby only had 32 attempts at the rim in 56 games with the Hawks.

Willie Green has had consecutive strong offensive performances off the bench, scoring 20 points on 9 shots. Now for the Willie Green-ness. That raises Green's TS% for the season to just 48.3%, he didn't grab a single rebounds and earned just one assist in nearly 32 minutes of playing time in those games. Enjoy the good performances from him, but don't count on them.

Initial Feedback: Fourth Overtime's the Charm

2012-01-06T22:40:00.001-05:00

James Goeders, a chemistry doctoral student at Georgia Tech and avid sports fan, wrote the initial feedback for tonight's game.

Initial feedback: A completely subjective and immediate response to the events of tonight's game, featuring a comment and rating, the latter on a scale of 1 to 10, on every player who saw the floor and the head coach, along with ephemera and miscellany as the author deems necessary.

Your ratings and commentary, dear reader, are welcomed in the comments to this post.

Boxscore

Players
Joe Johnson: With T-Mac sitting out with a knee injury, Joe took his place by being invisible for three quarters before finally coming to life in the fourth and in overtime. If this was a role player his score would be higher, but this is your max-contract, franchise player going 6/17 for the game from the floor and only 1-for-2 from the line. He did play a ton of minutes in the triple overtime loss last night, which could have affected his play tonight. Will be interesting to see how well he'll play tomorrow night against the Bulls with another 40+ minute game tonight. 4/10

Jeff Teague: Shots are still not falling for Teague. Kemba Walker and D.J. Augustin got the better of him all night and made Teague look slow on defense. It just seems as though he is not playing with the intensity we saw the first week of the season. Only went 3-for-10 from the floor and did not get to the line a single time, but did have a big 3 to start overtime. Teague did come through with 9 assists, something we've seen him do all season especially when the points are not there. 3/10

Josh Smith: Josh put the Hawks on his back in the third quarter with 14 points in that quarter alone. Finished as the game's leading scorer with 23 points and added 13 rebounds and 2 blocked shots. For awhile in the first half he looked like the only starter who wanted to play tonight. Consistently attacked the basket and reduced the number of bad jump shots that we have come to expect from J-Smoove. 8/10

Al Horford: Joined Josh as the main offensive threats with Joe going ice cold for three full quarters. He physically abused the Bobcat bigs inside and was perfect from the line finishing a number of and-1s. Played the same tough defense we've come to expect and was a force on the boards grabbing seven. 7/10

Marvin Williams: Finished in double figures while only playing 31 minutes and only having two made field goals in the first half. Had two late three pointers that were huge, but then had him putting up a number of threes that were off the mark through the rest of the quarter and overtime. Only able to hit one-of-two free throws in the final minute that could have given the Hawks a three point lead and a win in regulation. Added 9 rebounds, showing that he deserves to play as many minutes as the other starters, especially with McGrady hobbled. 5/10

Vladimir Radmanovic: VladRad finally hit a few 3s again (2-of-4 on the night) and had 7 rebounds. Finished in double figures (11), and was the lone big to do anything off of the bench. Took Marvin's spot with the starters during the fourth, which was an interesting move by Drew. 4/10

Jannero Pargo: Pargo was another spark off of the bench adding 9 points and 3 assists in only 10 minutes of action. He played with the energy that we had seen Teague play with earlier this season. It might be time to start giving Pargo more minutes. 4/10

Zaza Pachulia: VladRad and Ivan Johnson got all of his minutes tonight, which is a shame after how strong he looked on both ends of the court during the first week of the season. Finished with only a single basket but did have 5 rebounds. Would have liked to see Zaza get more minutes with how ineffective Ivan was tonight. 2/10

Ivan Johnson: After his "break-out" game last night, I was hoping to see some solid minutes from Drago. Instead, he had no points in 11 minutes while snagging 2 rebounds and 2 steals to go with his 3 quick fouls. He needs to start playing more under control in order to give Josh and Al much needed rest. 2/10

Willie Green: Shot a perfect 3-for-3 from the field in his 9 minutes of action, making him 8-for-9 over the last 2 games. After a slow start, maybe the light has turned on offensively for Willie Green. 4/10

The head coach
Again, if the Hawks make their free throws this is probably another win in regulation. The Bobcats were overmatched inside, but the Hawks seemed to stop going to Josh and Al after their strong third quarters. Larry Drew did not come up with anything to slow down Augustin and Walker even after it was apparent they were the only scoring threats the Bobcats were going to have tonight. It is discouraging to see such poor defense every night against opposing point guards. It's one thing to give up 30 points to Derrick Rose, but the Hawks have now given up 29 to Mario Chalmers, 21 to D.J. Augustin, and 19 to Kemba Walker in the last two games. 5/10

A thought regarding the opposition
The Bobcats have some good young talent, and an exciting backcourt. The Hawks had no answer for their dual point guards as Augustin and Walker were their leading scorers. It still was a bit of a disappointment to blow a late double-digit lead and go to overtime with one of the worst teams in the conference.

Hawks Find Themselves in the Moment, and Don't Like What They Find

2012-01-06T17:24:00.001-05:00

Ed. note -- I'm glad to publish another piece by Buddy Grizzard, who previously wrote the initial feedback to Wednesday's game against the Bulls.

You know that Eminem song "Lose Yourself" from the 8 Mile soundtrack? The chorus:

"You better lose yourself in the music, the moment, you own it, you better never let it go

You only get one shot, do not miss your chance to blow (as in blow up, become huge)

This opportunity comes once in a lifetime."

There are moments like this in NBA basketball that come to define entire careers for players and coaches. A good example of this is Game 4 of the 2009 NBA Finals. The Lakers lead the series 2-1 over the Magic, but Orlando carried a 3 point lead into the game's final 10 seconds. Stan Van Gundy instructed his team not to foul, Jameer Nelson played off Derek Fisher like he was anticipating a drive, Fisher nailed a three and the Lakers won in overtime to take a commanding 3-1 series lead en route to the NBA title.

A foul prior to Fisher's shot would have put the Lakers at the line for two free throws, giving Orlando the ball back with at least a one-point lead and precious seconds run off the clock. It would have meant almost certain victory and brought Orlando within two victories of an elusive championship. Instead, with Dwight Howard's career seemingly winding down in Orlando, those 10 seconds likely cemented Van Gundy's legacy as the coach who failed to win a championship with either of the two best centers of consecutive generations (you will recall that Pat Riley replaced Van Gundy on the Heat bench and coached Shaq and D-Wade to the 2006 NBA championship). Those 10 seconds come once in a lifetime.

As an interested observer of the Atlanta Hawks since Randy Whittman poster night at the Omni with my Cub Scout pack, I find myself wondering, as I have since Dominique Wilkens came up short in his second-round duel with an aging Larry Bird, if this current Hawks iteration has reached its high-water mark. Did it happen during the Eastern Conference semifinals last season, when the Hawks fell in Game 2, missing a chance to go up 2-0 as third-team All-NBA center Al Horford sat almost an entire half in phantom foul trouble? Did it happen Tuesday night, again in Chicago, when the Hawks were on the verge of following up a resounding win at Miami with a rout of last season's Eastern Conference runner-up?

During the TNT pre-game show for last night's Hawks-Heat rematch at Phillips Arena, studio analyst Chris Webber had an interesting take. He mystified Ernie Johnson by predicting a Miami victory, despite the absence of LeBron and D-Wade from the lineup due to injuries. He stated that the Heat have title aspirations, and if Chris Bosh wants to be considered one of the Big 3, and not just a complimentary player to the Heat's pair of top-5 NBA talents, then he should step forward in this situation and lead his team. How smart does C-Webb look right now?

It got me wondering, do the Hawks have title aspirations? Let's ask that question of some of the key actors in this unfolding drama.

1. Josh Smith

Can Joshua Smith be fairly said to have title aspirations when he eschews the inside game that many doubt but that he flashes whenever so motivated in favor of low-percentage jumpers? I was convinced at the start of this season that Josh would finally make an All-Star team. He returned from the lockout in prime condition, having shed weight that hurt his quickness last season, and appeared ready to break through to the next level. But he will never win enough fan votes to be an All-Star starter as long as his errant J's are filling Phillips with groans instead of cheers. And he will never be selected as a reserve by any Eastern Conference coach who watches him try to be something he's not and let his elite talents go to waste.

2. Jeff Teague

No Hawk has wilted in the spotlight this season more than Teague. After taking it to Deron Williams and taking it into Chris Bosh's chest as the Hawks capped a 4-1 start to the season with a dramatic win at Miami, Teague failed to show up the next night at Chicago. I've speculated that his poor body language and failure to fight through picks (now two games in a row) resulted from Larry Drew's refusal to endorse his strong early start by proclaiming that Teague will continue to start at point guard even after Kirk Hinrich returns to the lineup (Hinrich is recovering from off-season surgery). Teague seems like he's waiting to be given credit. But Michael Jordan was never given anything. You have to take it. If Teague has title aspirations, the stage is his. A rematch with Chicago looms on Saturday, and he can decide to resume giving the same type of effort he gave in the playoffs last year any time he so chooses.

3. Larry Drew

Can any NBA coach be said to have title aspirations if that coach sits his most efficient player for half of a critical playoff game? Can any NBA head coach be said to have title aspirations if that coach allows the league MVP to isolate and go one-one-one against his point guard and basically says, "we only win if Teague can stop Derek Rose one-on-one, something nobody on the planet can do?"

When I first saw the Hawks' schedule and noted this brutal week with two games each against Chicago and Miami, I immediately though a split of those four games would be very respectable. It would represent an excellent start to the season, provided the team took care of business against lesser opponents. Last night, despite the collapse against Chicago and despite all the team's struggles against a depleted Miami squad, the Hawks found themselves up by 3 with 5 seconds to go. The opportunity to earn that split of the four games was there for the taking. With a foul to give, the Hawks could have burned a few seconds then made the Heat take the ball out of bounds again. Then they could have fouled prior to the shot and sent the Heat to the line for two free throws.

Instead, Drew pulled a Van Gundy. He instructed his team not to foul. He said he trusted his defense, the same defense that gave up two layups in the final minute of regulation. His trust was rewarded by Marvin Williams' soft defense on Bosh who nailed a three, sent the game into overtime, and sent the Hawks on their way to yet another disaster. Those 5 seconds come once in a lifetime. How many more chances will the Hawks have to seize the moment?

Buddy Grizzard formerly toiled as the sports editor for several small, local newspapers, has been a producer for CBS and Clear Channel radio and worked as a videographer for CBS Sports website MaxPreps.com

Quotes of the Day -- January 6, 2012

2012-01-06T07:44:00.000-05:00

If you had six games into the season in your "When will the Hawks give a performance accompanied by post-game rhetoric that makes you consider giving up all otherwise reasonable hope for the team?" pool, I think you won.

Al Horford on Chris Bosh's three-pointer that sent the game to overtime:

"That’s a miscommunication there. That went on all game. Guys were not on the same page and we weren’t switching. We were having some problems with the coverages. Jeff, you can’t fault him, he expects it to be done the right way every time."

Jeff Teague's inexperience is apparently manifesting itself through expectations that his teammates will fulfill their assignments.

Josh Smith provides a different perspective:

"I don’t know how much louder I can scream for whoever it is that a man is coming up and setting a screen. . . . We were giving up too many straight-line drives to the basket and dribble-drive layups. It’s disappointing to see that when somebody makes a play, as teammates we have to come up and help them."

I don't know how much louder I can scream when someone is taking a shot that has about a 30% chance of going in. We were giving up too many possessions on low-percentage shots. It's disappointing to see that when somebody settles for a bad shot, his teammates have to come up and fight for the offensive rebound and help him.

Initial Feedback: Fourth Draft Thereof

2012-01-05T23:56:00.000-05:00

Initial feedback: A completely subjective and immediate response to the events of tonight's game, featuring a comment and rating, the latter on a scale of 1 to 10, on every player who saw the floor and the head coach, along with ephemera and miscellany as the author deems necessary.

Your ratings and commentary, dear reader, are welcomed in the comments to this post.

Boxscore

Players
Jeff Teague: Despite struggling from the floor and the line, Teague was worse defensively. If he consistently gets in the paint and to the line, he'll score. If he can't stay in front of Mario Chalmers or Terrel Harris, he'll have to get in the paint and to the line just to keep up. 3/10

Joe Johnson: Typically mildly productive and inefficient offensive performance but should be embarrassed by Terrel Harris's seven offensive rebounds, grabbing only two rebounds in almost 50 minutes, or his two off-the-ball fouls in overtime. 5/10

Marvin Williams: Without consistent minutes, can't be expected to provide consistent production. Didn't make shots but was active on the glass. Deserves a greater benefit of the doubt. 4/10

Josh Smith: Keyed the third quarter comeback by dint of not shooting terrible shots for a spell. Didn't get back in the game for much of the fourth by dint of Ivan Johnson. Made a conscious decision to play no defense, just to point, on Bosh's layup that made it 90-92. Has generally rebounded and defended well this season. Has had a horrible start to the season overall. 2 of 7 from 16 feet and beyond tonight. 5/10

Al Horford: If he's unwilling to demand the ball and/or unable to do enough with it on the rare occasions he gets it, he's reasonably paid rather than a bargain. The consistent quality of his defense, rebounding, and low-usage efficiency separates him from his teammates. On a night like this, against the least of the Heat, that's damning with faint praise. 6/10

Tracy McGrady: Another wonderful performance reminiscent of late period, post-surgeries Danny Manning (whose last really good season came at the age of 32, during a lockout-shortened schedule). The only worry is that he appeared to be shut down during the first overtime. Not sure that bodes well for the long haul and the Hawks, as is, might be lost without him. 6/10

Willie Green: You can't knock a 14 point quarter. Let's hope he noticed the value of moving toward the basket before shooting. On the other hand, you can't ask Willie Green to play point guard in the NBA. 5/10

Ivan Johnson: Two wonderful, productive bursts of energy, then left out there to demonstrate his inexperience both times. 13 points and 4 rebounds are a lot in 21 minutes. So are five turnovers and six fouls. Could be a decent option if Josh Smith keeps taking terrible shots. Would love to see Johnson and Pachulia on the court together as the fan-favorite with two heads. 5/10

Zaza Pachulia: Didn't produce immediately. Either he's hurt or he has to produce immediately in order to get the minutes he deserves relative to the other options.2/10

Vladimir Radmanovic: Nice effort. Terrible shooting. Unfortunately, shooting is his primary talent. 2/10

Jannero Pargo: Three points in three minutes is, in the grand scheme of things, an excellent performance for Jannero Pargo. 2/10

Jason Collins: Has one skill. That skill wasn't needed. He played anyway. 1/10

The head coach
If the Hawks make free throws, the game's over midway through the fourth quarter. That's not on the coach. He's clearly not going to play Marvin Williams and McGrady at the same time. Willie Green at point guard and Jason Collins' second quarter stint made no sense but, again, making just 70% of their free throws papers over that eccentricity. It's a long season. Getting Josh Smith to stop taking jump shots, by any means necessary, is more important for the team's future. Ivan Johnson may be part of that.

I like Kyle Lowry a lot and hold out hope for Mario Chalmers. However, if the Hawks are bedeviled by those two, I think it's fair to assume that the team defense may be different, it may be better, but it's not going to be especially good. 5/10

ESPN.com: Hollinger: Coaching dilemma: Rest or play?

2012-01-05T06:35:00.000-05:00

John Hollinger is surprised that more coaches aren't resting their best players (link is Insider) given the compressed nature of the schedule:

Through the season's first week and a half, I've already heard a lot of complaints about the schedule, but I've seen precious little in the way of adjustments to it.

This point was driven home watching the Clippers play the Bulls last Friday. Chicago, despite being on a back-to-back, played both Derrick Rose and Luol Deng 42 minutes. The Clippers did the Bulls one better; Caron Butler played 39 minutes, Blake Griffin played 42 and Chris Paul played 44. Did I mention all three players have had serious knee problems in the past two years?

And in looking at the early-season minutes trends, it's clear there's plenty of this going around. Despite a paucity of overtime games (which, of necessity, tend to skew the minutes numbers higher), the leaderboard in minutes per game doesn't look terribly different from how it did a year ago.

Seventeen players average at least 36 minutes per game; yes it's early and some of these numbers will drop due to foul trouble or other situations, but even at this early juncture I'm surprised.

Larry Drew joins Rick Carlisle, George Karl, Mike D'Antoni, and Gregg Popovich as the coaches managing their benches well:

Larry Drew's Atlanta team lost the battle Tuesday night, but the Hawks may be winning the war. Joe Johnson averages 34.5 minutes and no other Hawk is above 32.2. An early blowout of New Jersey helped skew those numbers down, but the Hawks have overused Johnson in particular in recent seasons and have managed him much better this season. As long as Tracy McGrady stays upright -- he left Tuesday's game with a knee problem -- Atlanta may be in good shape come May.

Off the Dribble: Mahoney: For the Hawks, It's a Marvin Williams Moment

2012-01-04T21:46:00.000-05:00

Rob Mahoney brings Marvin Williams' excellent start to the season to the readers of NYTimes.com:

Break Williams’ production down per minute, and the improvements really start to take shape. His scoring is up to 17.2 points per 36 minutes from 13.0 last season, largely because Williams has begun to turn one of his weaknesses – spotting up for jumpers on the perimeter – into a potential strength. Williams still takes his fair share of jumpers when the ball swings to him on the outside (he’s made nearly half of his 3-pointers this season, a shooting mark that will surely regress), but he’s also looked to put the ball on the floor against a defense scrambling to challenge his shot. Thus far, Williams has used these driving lanes to great benefit, as he’s nearly tripled the rate at which he draws fouls in spot-up situations, per Synergy Sports Technology.

Williams is getting to the free-throw line a career-high 6.6 times – and turning the ball over a career-low 0.5 times – per 36 minutes. We’re months away from knowing if those numbers have any real staying power, but there’s no question that Williams has been exceptionally efficient in limited minutes early this season.

Yet the most pronounced change in Williams’ game has come on the glass, where his career mark of 6.2 rebounds per 36 minutes – a statistical anchor from which he’s barely strayed in his season-to-season performance – has been dwarfed by the 8.9 rebounds per 36 that Williams has collected in his first six games of the year. That’s a profound difference, especially considering that the Hawks play at one of the league’s slowest paces. If we refine the data even further and evaluate Williams’ rebounding on a per-possession level that removes pace as a factor, he rises to the top as one of the elite rebounders at his position.

Again: this may all be a very quaint exercise in Small Sample Size Theater. But Williams’ work on the glass has been the result of genuine effort and an emphasis on box-out position, two rebounding components with the potential to help Williams sustain his success throughout the season. That doesn’t mean he will, per se – effort can fluctuate just as easily as any other area of performance – but the logical foundation for continued production is certainly there.

Read the whole thing. It's worth one of your 20 articles a month.

Basketball Prospectus: Doolittle: Riffing on the Hawks' Defense

2012-01-04T20:29:00.000-05:00

In his ongoing attempt to figure out the Hawks (good luck, fellow traveler on that road), Bradford Doolittle examines their early season defensive success from the United Center:

It's hard to judge the Hawks' defense based on the fourth quarter. The Bulls scored 34 points in the period after, again, putting up just 42 in the first three periods. Rose and Deng combined for 30 of those points, playing alongside Kyle Korver, Taj Gibson and Omer Asik. It's not like Drew wasn't trying to force the ball out of Rose's hands, the Hawks just weren't able to do it. When they got overaggressive with trying to trap, Rose found the open guy, usually Deng. It's not like they weren't helping once Rose flashed into the lane. On a drive that tied the game with 9.9 seconds left, Rose lost Teague with a crossover and drove the right side of the lane. Josh Smith moved over to contest the shot and was in position with both hands raised. Smith of course is one of the league's most athletic players, a premier shot blocker who is six inches taller than Rose. However, the MVP simply went up and over Smith as if he wasn't there. There is no scheme, design or quantitative analysis than can explain it.

...

Despite the poor finish, the Hawks ended up holding the Bulls to .85 points per possession in the game, though the wild swings of the early season dropped them to third in Defensive Rating. There was nothing schematically that I saw to explain Atlanta's defensive success. We've seen in the past that Atlanta is capable of putting the screws to teams defensively as they did during last year's playoffs and perhaps Drew's insistence on that approach has simply gotten through. With no major personnel additions to explain the defensive improvement, it's the only explanation we really have. And it's not a good one. The Hawks have finished 14th and 15th on defense the last two years, respectively, and it's going to take more than six games to prove they have made any sort of leap.

The Hawks' defense is something to keep an eye on. That third spot behind the Heat and Bulls in the East seems to be up for grabs and a more committed Atlanta squad is certainly capable of grabbing it. I don't like their chances to do so based both on the track record of the team's core and the age of its bench. But as I am always compelled to say when writing about the Hawks, we've been wrong about them before.

Pro Basketball Prospectus 2011-12 is on sale.

HoopSpeak: Mason: Chicago goes to the half court trap to trip up the Hawks

2012-01-04T18:25:00.000-05:00

Friend of the blog, Beckley Mason, on the turning point of the game:

Judging by the Atlanta Hawks' defensive energy and focus, you wouldn’t have guessed they were on the second game in a brutal back to back that began with the Heat. But with 7 minutes left in the third, Atlanta was in absolute control of the Chicago Bulls. The offense wasn’t exactly humming, but certainly grinding. Snappy ball-movement and running Joe Johnson in swooping circles around a series of screeners was giving the Bulls fits. When the Bulls’ aggressive big men hedged to Johnson, Josh Smith and Al Horford quickly slipped back door for alley-oops.

When a team is getting pounded, sage commentators intone that the team “needs to change something.” Really, sometimes a team only needs to make open shots, or take better care of the ball. Certainly either would have helped the Bulls, but it wasn’t just execution–the Hawks were taking it to them. They were beating them to loose balls, disrupting the Bulls already choppy offense and abusing the Bulls defensive philosophy with clever reads.

The Bulls won 61 games last season, and will win a whole bunch this year because night in and night out, they simply play harder and more aggressively than their competition.

So in an apparent effort to reclaim that identity, coach Tom Thibodeau unleashed a half court trap in the second half that dramatically shifted the flow of the game. With all those long and fast players, the Bulls second unit–which often includes Luol Deng– is a near perfect group for trapping.

But the Bulls debuted the trap with Carlos Boozer, of all people, on top. That’s because the goal wasn’t to get deflections and steals, but to divert the Hawks theretofore flowing offense into channels unaccustomed to handle the volume of offensive responsibility, and to burn precious seconds off the clock before the Hawks could initiate their offense.

Click through for video and further analysis.

A Foolish Consistency Is the Hobgoblin of Little Minds

2012-01-04T11:56:00.000-05:00

Emerson was explicitly describing statesmen, philosophers, and divines but, lowering our gaze to the level of Josh Smith's shot selection provides an example of why the quote lives on in our memory.

Josh Smith, shot attempts outside of 16 feet, game-by-game, 2011-12 season:

Opp	FGM	FGA
@NJ	1	4
WASH	1	6
NJ	2	5
@HOU	1	7
@MIA	1	7
@CHI	2	8

Over the last five-plus seasons, Smith has attempted 1773 shots outside of 16 feet. That's 4.6 attempts per game. He has made 562 of those shots. That's 1.5 makes a game.

He is a career 28% three-point shooter. He is a career 67.3% free throw shooter. He is not a good shooter. He cannot consistently make these shots. Yet he insists on taking them. His motives are unclear but definitely unwise. Every jump shot undermines both his own significant breadth of talent and his team's chances of winning.

One can fairly give credit to Derrick Rose and Luol Deng, fairly apportion blame to Jeff Teague and Al Horford for missing free throws in the final 20 seconds, but, even by the pitiful offensive standards of last night's game, the eight possessions Josh Smith used to score four points on jump shots were markedly sub-par and we should expect nothing other than similarly wasted possessions in the future.

Quote of the Day -- January 3, 2012

2012-01-04T10:29:00.000-05:00

Al Horford on the dichotomy of a great team defensive performance (76 points allowed on 93 possessions) for the game as a whole and giving up 34 points on 23 possessions in the fourth quarter:

"We dominated them for most of the game. Just Derrick Rose happened."

Luol Deng and missed free throws played key roles, as well. The gameflow isn't pretty.

Initial Feedback: First Team To Seventy-Two Wins

2012-01-04T00:26:00.001-05:00

Buddy Grizzard, who has formerly toiled as the sports editor for several small, local newspapers, has been a producer for CBS and Clear Channel radio and worked as a videographer for CBS Sports website MaxPreps.com, wrote the initial feedback for tonight's game.

Initial feedback: A completely subjective and immediate response to the events of tonight's game, featuring a comment and rating, the latter on a scale of 1 to 10, on every player who saw the floor and the head coach, along with ephemera and miscellany as the author deems necessary.

Your ratings and commentary, dear reader, are welcomed in the comments to this post.

Boxscore

Players
Joe Johnson: After Tracy McGrady's quote following the win at Miami about fresh legs, I doubt either T-Mac or Joe will say the same following this fiasco. The Hawks clearly came out with a game plan to attack and take quick shots. Joe was hitting early but by the second quarter his J abandoned him. As the Hawks built their lead, Joe spent a lot of time covering Derrick Rose. Combined with the second game in as many nights against an elite opponent, you can understand why Joe looked tired by the end of this one. 4/10

Jeff Teague: This was Teague's chance to emerge as one of the top point guards in the Eastern Conference. You have to wonder if he read Larry Drew's quote saying Kirk Hinrich may start once he returns from injury. Teague looked so disinterested early on, and was so easily erased on picks all night, that Drew was forced to put Joe Johnson on Derek Rose for much of the first half. In the second half Drew hung Teague out to dry as Chicago isolated Rose at the top of the key over and over and let him run around Teague. On a 2-for-8 shooting night, given a chance to bail the Hawks out at the end, Jeff Teague missed two critical free throws. Questions about Teague's heart and desire are now inevitable. 3/10

Josh Smith: To understand Josh Smith's impact on this game is to recognize the disparity between the Hawks bench depth and Chicago's. Any time Josh went to the bench, Chicago attacked the basket relentlessly. The Hawks lead began to evaporate after Vladimir Radmanovic replaced Josh with 3:47 to play in the third. Josh interspersed the customarily ill-advised shots with strong post-ups and drives to the basket, but made enough jumpers to finish a respectable 6-for-13 from the field. He also had a game-high 14 rebounds. 7/10

Al Horford: Al Horford statistically had a decent night going 7-for-14 for 16 points and 7 boards as he posted up aggressively, attacked the basket and made an effort on defense. But he missed two critical free throws down the stretch in the fourth quarter as he joined Teague and Smith in shooting 50% from the free throw line for the game. 6/10

Marvin Williams: Marv started out on fire, attacking the basket, hitting from outside and playing aggressive defense. But after 3 early baskets Drew quickly subbed McGrady in for him with 5:07 to play in the first. McGrady's strong early season seems to have encouraged Drew to play Williams shorter minutes despite his own strong early season. 7/10

Tracy McGrady: One night after T-Mac’s statement game against Miami, where he buried the reigning Eastern Conference champs with three fourth-quarter threes, he had a mostly-ineffective 1-for-4 night for 2 points. Although he added 6 rebounds, he joined the rest of the bench unit in averaging a +/- around -9. All of the starters posted positive +/- numbers. 4/10

Jannero Pargo: After his huge fourth quarter three last night against Miami, Pargo hit another big one as the Hawks built their lead. But it would be his only basket of the night and he couldn’t stay in the same area code trying to guard Rose. 3/10

Willie Green: Green actually had a decent night shooting the ball going 2-for-4 for 4 points in only 8 minutes. But on a night when the Hawks could have used another strong bench performance, Drew clearly shortened his rotation due to the bench’s overall poor performance. 4/10

Zaza Pachulia: Last night against Miami, Zaza entered the game in the fourth quarter with 10:51 to play and the Hawks trailing 71-70. After a layup (T-Mac assist) and a pair of free throws by Zaza, sandwiched around a Pargo 4-footer, Horford re-entered the game with 8:36 to play, the bench mob having delivered a 76-72 lead. Tonight, the Hawks' best bench player in the Eastern Conference semifinals last year played 8 ineffective minutes, going a scoreless 0-for-3 and grabbing one rebound. 2/10

Vladimir Radmanovic: After a hot shooting start to the season, Vlad has cooled down considerably, going 1-for-4 for 3 points in 13 minutes. He continues to show a decent overall floor game, chipping in a pair of assists, but as mentioned Chicago rallied when Vlad replaced Smith in the lineup. 3/10

The head coach
Larry Drew is quite capable of drawing up game winning plays. If you don’t believe me, see the evidence here:

http://nbaplaybook.com/category/atlanta-hawks/

He got a ton of credit for the zone defense that flustered the Miami Heat last night and contributed to an early statement win for the Hawks. Given the chance to build on that, the Hawks started strong against Chicago, mixing man-to-man with a 1-3-1 zone that forced the Bulls into a shot clock violation after their own timeout with 7:18 to play in the first. Seeing Teague’s poor body language and barely-existent defense against Rose, he made the kind of move veteran coaches make, putting Johnson, the Hawks best player, on Rose, the Bulls best player. This largely contributed to the huge lead the Hawks built.

But in the second half, Drew’s coaching fell apart. Albert Einstein said that the definition of insanity was to do the same thing over and over and expect a different result. In the second half Drew allowed the Bulls to isolate Rose on Teague at the top of the key over and over and go around him. Teague played much better against Rose in the playoffs, but seeing his struggles in this game, Drew should have trapped Rose to make someone else beat the Hawks. On offense down the stretch, the Hawks reverted to iso-Joe, with zero offensive movement, expecting their worn-down leader to bail them out once again.

Speaking of late-game situations, Horford tied the game at 74-74 with 1-of-2 free throws with :07 to play. After Chicago called a 20-second timeout, I couldn’t tell if the Hawks were in zone or man or if Johnson just blew his assignment and left Deng wide open for a layup. After a Hawks timeout, Drew’s last chance play with 3 seconds remaining seemed to consist of an in-bounds pass to Al Horford three feet outside the three point line followed by a Joe Johnson air ball. 2/10

Quote of the Day -- January 2, 2012

2012-01-03T13:00:00.000-05:00

Tracy McGrady takes us back to our youth:

"My legs feel fresh. Everything just feels good. It feels right. That’s a good sign. I haven’t felt this good in a long time, probably since the beginning of my knee injury."

Heat Index: Windhorst: Heat suffer first loss on Hawks' changeup

2012-01-03T10:55:00.000-05:00

Brian Windhorst:

[M]ostly the Hawks beat the Heat with their scouting report. That left the Heat with more than just a loss but with a headache. Like a hitter who can’t lay off the curve in the dirt, the Heat know they’re probably about to face a steady diet of what finally beat them for the first time in six games.

The season is now a little more than a week old and the book on the Heat has started to get around. The advance scouts have filed their reports. The assistant coaches have a catalog of games to watch to make suggestions. Head coaches have a huge bullet point for their game plan.

Right now, the Heat have a problem with zone defense and the whole league is about to realize it.

First, Jason Collins. Now, an opponent-specific* zone. Like his predecessor, Larry Drew's strengths may be on the opposite end of the floor as was advertised.

*As opposed to last season's use of zone defense as a way to play Mike Bibby, Jamal Crawford, and Joe Johnson all at the same time.

TrueHoop: Hawks slow down Heat in Miami

2012-01-03T08:24:00.000-05:00

ESPN Stats & Information break down a couple of the key factors in Atlanta's win in Miami:

The Heat had a season-low 92 points and struggled offensively because they could not get out in transition. In their first five games, the Heat were averaging 101.6 possessions per game and were one of the best transition teams in the NBA. On Monday, Miami had a season-low 92 possessions and struggled to get out on the break.

The Hawks also dominated the Heat down low with a 50-38 advantage in the paint. Entering Monday night, Miami was allowing only 32.8 points in the paint per game, the third-fewest in the NBA, and were outscoring their opponents in the paint by an average of 16.4 points per game.

Miami’s ball-hawking defense was also absent against Atlanta as the Hawks committed only 10 turnovers, the fewest by any Heat opponent this season. The Heat generated just 13 points off turnovers, also a season-low and nearly half of their season average through the first five games.

In its first five games Miami scored 35.7 percent of its transition points directly off “live-ball” turnovers. On Monday only one of the Heat’s 13 transition plays resulted from a “live-ball” turnover, and they scored just one point on that play.

Initial Feedback: Hawks Visit Miami, Remembered To Pack Optimism

2012-01-02T22:07:00.000-05:00

Initial feedback: A completely subjective and immediate response to the events of tonight's game, featuring a comment and rating, the latter on a scale of 1 to 10, on every player who saw the floor and the head coach, along with ephemera and miscellany as the author deems necessary.

Your ratings and commentary, dear reader, are welcomed in the comments to this post.

Boxscore

Players
Jeff Teague: And the Heat thought they were dumb for insisting on playing Mike Bibby last season. 8/10

Joe Johnson: Considering the opposition, easily his best offensive game of the season. The zone defense seems to suit him, as well. He stepped up with some better-than-normal on-the-ball defense in the second half. 8/10

Marvin Williams: The Hawks took the lead in the third quarter on back-to-back Marvin Williams buckets created by him cutting into the lane to receive passes from Horford and Smith. At some point, the need his good play simultaneous with McGrady's in the fourth quarter. 6/10

Josh Smith: A terrible first quarter. Took three quick, early, long jumpers, one right-handed jump hook, got beaten for two dunks by Chris Bosh on slip screens, and appeared to spend the first two timeouts telling his teammates what they needed to be doing. The rest of his game came around but he couldn't resist the terrible shots. 5/10

Al Horford: Maybe the ability to create your own shot is overrated. Not really, but you can be awfully good player with that weakness if you do everything else well. 9/10

Tracy McGrady: Doesn't do much for three quarters, besides irritatingly spotting up just inside the three-point line. Then, in the fourth, he's all over the defensive glass and knocks down three spot-up three-pointers. 7/10

Vladimir Radmanovic: Gifted an extended second half stint courtesy of Josh Smith's shot selection, he couldn't buy a bucket but remained active on the glass and contributed to the fourth quarter defensive effort. 4/10

Jannero Pargo: 8 points on 5 shots in 12 minutes is the upside of Pargo's willingness to shoot the ball. 4/10

Zaza Pachulia: A concentrated burst of points, rebounds, and blatantly fouling Udonis Haslem. I'd rather Zaza be on the court, but his overexuberance didn't hurt the team tonight. 4/10

Willie Green: He's genuinely unpleasant to watch when the Hawks have the ball, but he was on the court for the big run at the start of the fourth quarter and part of a great team defensive effort. 3/10

The head coach
Went to the bench early, put them in a zone defensively, and kept the game in hand when it threatened to get away. Josh Smith's insistence on taking terrible shots reflects poorly on Drew but the rest of his frontcourt players' inability to finish at the rim early in the game isn't on him. Demerits for the team's disorganized start, many, many more credits for making early adjustments that worked. 9/10

A thought regarding the opposition
Despite the Hawks win and Al Horford's great performance, I don't regret picking Chris Bosh as the better player at The Heat Index this morning. In the half-court offense, Chris Bosh's movement without the ball was unquestionably the best thing going for them. The Atlanta defenders, whether playing man-to-man or zone, couldn't keep track of him. More of that and less of Dwyane Wade shooting jumpers on the left side of the floor, and the Hawks would have hand their hands full.

How the Hawks Are 3-1, Is the Start Sustainable?

2012-01-02T09:17:00.000-05:00

A few items to watch as the Hawks prepare to play the two best teams in the East, the Heat and the Bulls, a combined four times this week:

1) Offensive rebounding -- The Hawks were next-to-last in the league in offensive rebounding last season which only exaggerated the team's reliance on long, two-point jump shots to score points. Through four games this season, the Hawks have rebounded more than 30% of their misses, with Marvin Williams (11%), Zaza Pachulia (19.8%), Al Horford (9.4%), and Willie Green (9.2%) leading the way.

Can this be sustained? Sure, if Williams and Pachulia continue to play this well, they deserve more playing time and, historically, both have been above average rebounders. If Josh Smith stops hanging around the perimeter on offense, he could get more involved on the offensive glass, too.

2) Limiting turnovers -- Not turning the ball over and offensive rebounding were the twin pillars of Mike Woodson's offense that destroyed inferior opposition during the 2009-10 season. It's still an effective combination in 2011-12.

Can this be sustained? I think so. It's not like every single Hawk has taken good care of the ball. Pachulia, Pargo, and Radmanovic all have turnover rates above 20% so there's a cushion for when the starters begin to turn the ball over at a rate closer to their career averages.

3) Forcing turnovers -- The Hawks were next-to-last in forcing turnovers last season. Through four games, they're 8th in the league. The Hawks are still in the bottom five of the league in possessions per game but that has more to do with what they're doing well offensively than an inability to get the ball back.

Can this be sustained? I'm skeptical. Jeff Teague's athleticism adds something to the team's perimeter defense but I don't think the second unit will be nearly as successful trapping better opposition.

4) Interior defense -- Opponents have made 48.1% of their shots at the rim. That's the best at the rim defense in the league, 14.6 percentage points better than the league average.

Can this be sustained? No. The Heat led the league in opponents field goal percentage on shots at the rim last season. They allowed 58% of those shots to be made. With Smith and Horford, interior defense can continue to be a strength but not to that degree.

5) Three-point shooting -- Last season, the Hawks were slightly below the league average in three-point attempts per game* and three-point field goal percentage. Through four games, the Hawks are comfortably above the league average in both categories.

Can this be sustained? Probably not. Joe Johnson and Vladimir Radmanovic are both making at least 40% of their three-point attempts. Jeff Teague and Marvin Williams are both making at least 50% of their three-point attempts. That won't continue. On the other hand, the Hawks probably will continue to take 20 long, two-point jump shots every game but will begin to make more than 27% of those shots so, again, there's a cushion as players drift toward their career averages.

*Partially due to the low number of possessions per game, but since the Hawks are still in the bottom five of the league in possessions per game so far this season, I think it's a fair year-to-year comparison.

Quote of the Day -- January 1, 2012

2012-01-01T11:55:00.001-05:00

Larry Drew:

"We reverted back to short closeouts and not getting out there with a sense of urgency. With our theory as far as closeouts you have got to make them put the ball on the floor. We did not do that."

Ironically, short closeouts may be the best way to defend the Heat on Monday night.

Initial Feedback: An Experiment In Crowdsourcing

2011-12-31T17:50:00.003-05:00

I'm not going to be able to watch tonight's game live which complicates matters for this feature. So I'm crowdsourcing this edition and asking you to write player comments and ratings, either in the comments to this post or on Twitter (@hoopinion). You can write a full set or just comment and rate a single player or the head coach.

~~Sometime after the clock strikes 2012, the best of those comments will be posted, with attribution, in this space.~~

Experiment failed.

Initial feedback: A completely subjective and immediate response to the events of tonight's game, featuring a comment and rating, the latter on a scale of 1 to 10, on every player who saw the floor and the head coach, along with ephemera and miscellany as the author deems necessary.

Your ratings and commentary, dear reader, are welcomed in the comments to this post.

Boxscore

Players
Jeff Teague: Oh, yeah. Jeff Teague can be a tremendous improvement for the Hawks without being an above average point guard in the league. Not that Kyle Lowry getting the better of him proves anything definitively. 4/10

Joe Johnson: With Kevin Martin lighting up Joe Johnson, it became difficult to ignore the inefficiency with which Johnson scored. 4/10

Josh Smith: Josh Smith's stubborn insistence on shooting jump shots (0-6 tonight) does Johnson no favors with regard to the scoring load. Houston's offensive performance didn't speak highly of his ability to impact the game defensively, either. 4/10

Al Horford: If he was the best Hawks player on the night, it was largely by default (or the simple act of not taking bad shots). Luis Scola got the better of him. 5/10

Marvin Williams: Had a fine first quarter but never got back on track before sitting for the 18 minutes of the game. 4/10

Tracy McGrady: It's great that McGrady has been a positive contributor through four games and it's not his fault that those contributions have come at the expense of Marvin Williams. 5/10

Zaza Pachulia: Not built to play at Kyle Lowry's speed. Not likely to play enough minutes for The Horford Treatment to be even a consideration. 3/10

Vladimir Radmanovic: Despite a good early effort trapping Goran Dragic in the backcourt, he has to make shots to be effective. Didn't make shots. 2/10

Jannero Pargo: Admirable effort but he's a third point guard filling in due to injury. 3/10

Willie Green: Has improved to provide generic, inoffensive backup guard play. 3/10

Jason Collins: Inexplicably made his season debut after Pachulia picked up his second foul in the first half. Inexplicably on the court while the Hawks were trapping in the backcourt. Never had a chance. 2/10

The head coach
I understand the desire not to run the starters into the ground during the compressed season, but the lack of depth also means that the Hawks can't afford to split 46 minutes between Williams and McGrady. Not on a night where a scoreless Radmanovic and Willie Green play 32 minutes. Neither Williams nor McGrady can play point guard, but Willie Green can't play NBA basketball. Sitting Pachulia because he picked up two first half fouls made no sense, nor did the insertion of Jason Collins to remind us that he can't move well enough to defend the pick-and-roll effectively. Larry Drew will have to be creative in his rotations this season. Exploring whether or not Willie Green can defend Kyle Lowry isn't creative. It's stupid. 3/10

A thought regarding the opposition
It remains to be seen which will be the more effective season-long strategy, but the Rockets may have won this game because Kevin McHale was willing to play Lowry and Martin 40+ minutes each in Houston's third game in a row while Al Horford, Josh Smith, and Jeff Teague barely cracked 30 minutes. One can talk about superior energy and execution but the team that has its best players on the floor more often holds an inherent advantage.

Initial Feedback: Hawks Outlast Nets

2011-12-31T12:23:00.000-05:00

Initial feedback: A completely subjective and immediate* response to the events of tonight's game, featuring a comment and rating, the latter on a scale of 1 to 10, on every player who saw the floor and the head coach, along with ephemera and miscellany as the author deems necessary.

*Barring the inability to connect to the blog software for 15 hours. Apologies for the delay.

Boxscore

Players
Jeff Teague: Teague probably wasn't ready from day one, but surely we needn't have waited two full seasons for this. 7/10

Joe Johnson: Very efficient scoring night. Scoring's the most important part of the game, so if you're going to contribute in just one facet of the game, that would be the one to pick. 6/10

Marvin Williams: We're at the point where 11 points and 6 rebounds in 25 minutes from Marvin Williams seems surprising light, production-wise. 6/10

Josh Smith: Doubled his season total of made jump shots but was partially culpable for the team's dreadful defensive rebounding. 5/10

Al Horford: His zero defensive rebounds proved a touching tribute to the missing Robin Lopez. 4/10

Zaza Pachulia: He is and always has been an excellent third big man. Let's not forget Zaza getting a role worthy of his talents amidst Jeff Teague's breakthrough season. 6/10

Tracy McGrady: I'm perfectly fine with McGrady picking his spots. His solid fourth quarter made up for his somnambulant first three. 5/10

Vladimir Radmanovic: He can't continue to turn the ball over this often. 3/10

Jannero Pargo: Proved that he can contribute without making shots. The Hawks don't win this game without Pargo's contributions. 4/10

Willie Green: Best performance yet as a Hawk. Four points on five shots, but no turnovers or fouls. 3/10

The head coach
Probably stayed with the second unit too deep into the fourth quarter but this is the type of opponent you risk giving your starters some extra rest. Not that the starters looked especially desperate. The Horford Treatment made a brief, relatively harmless appearance but was more than made up for by leaving Horford in the game after picking up his fifth foul. More playing time for Marvin Williams would help the defensive rebounding. 6/10

A thought regarding the opposition
MarShon Brooks can score.

Call For Submissions

2011-12-29T12:23:00.000-05:00

I'm pleased with positive response to the initial feedback posts. I developed that format for two reasons:

1) I've written 300-and-some game recaps over the past four seasons and the process has rather lost its luster
2) I will have far less time to devote to this blog than in seasons past.

As to the second point, I wanted to lower the barrier to entry for potential contributors. It's difficult to commit to blogging day-in, day-out and, even should one follow through on that commitment, the rewards can be minimal. If you would be interested in writing the initial feedback post for an upcoming game, send me an email detailing your interest and availability.

If you would be interested in writing a post of any kind regarding the Hawks this season, write it, email it to me, and I promise to read it and respond to you. I'm not looking for people who write like me or agree with me. I'm simply looking for good writing about the Hawks. If it's good, I'll publish it. If it needs more work, I'll ask you to revise it.

The long term plan is to find regular contributors for the site, allowing for flexibility regarding the level of commitment. If you want to write one good essay on a subject of interest and never submit anything again, I'd like to publish that essay. If you want to write a few initial feedback posts over the course of a season, great. If you want to (eventually) help run the site, take part in the TrueHoop Network, and plot to overthrow me from within, that's great, too.

Quote of the Day -- December 29, 2011

2011-12-29T10:53:00.000-05:00

John Wall:

"Get him out of the game!"

Context:

The Hawks scored the first 11 points of the game and led 19-4 before John Wall decided to send a charge into his team by scoring eight consecutive points for the team. But his frustration was apparent early on, as he looked at Coach Flip Saunders and shouted about one the Wizards’ starters, "Get him out of the game!"

Puts waiting for Kirk Hinrich to come back and replace Pargo and Green in perspective.

HT: Bullets Forever

Initial Feedback: Hawks Home Opener

2011-12-28T22:18:00.000-05:00

Initial feedback: A completely subjective and immediate response to the events of tonight's game, featuring a comment and rating, the latter on a scale of 1 to 10, on every player who saw the floor and the head coach, along with ephemera and miscellany as the author deems necessary.

Your ratings and commentary, dear reader, are welcomed in the comments to this post.

Boxscore

Players
Jeff Teague: A somewhat uneven performance but let's bear in mind that was just the fourth time in his career that Teague played 28 or more minutes in a regular season game. John Wall certainly did not have his way with him. 6/10

Joe Johnson: At his best when passing or catching-and-shooting, the first unit's ball and player movement gave him ample opportunities to play to his strengths. Inability to keep opposing ball-handlers in front of him may be a problem when the opposing ball-handler isn't Jordan Crawford. 6/10

Marvin Williams: 17 points on 8 shots and he joined Smith and Horford in forming a three-man rebounding wall. Couldn't have wished for a better, more impressive start to the season. 8/10

Josh Smith: 2-10 on jump shots through two games, but passing, defending, rebounding, and making 80% of the good shots you take can make up for a highly visible ill. 7/10

Al Horford: Showing no signs of making the leap in usage that's necessary for him to become a franchise player, though he did step up to make two baskets in the paint in the final four minutes to put the nail in the coffin. The rest of his game remains as exquisite as ever. 7/10

Tracy McGrady: Looked very nice playing with the starters and played a role in dominating the defensive glass. If Marvin Williams and McGrady keep playing like this, Larry Drew will have a pleasant dilemma. 6/10

Zaza Pachulia: No idea how much his sore shoulder limited him. Got to the line and was active but only two rebounds and no hard fouls made for a less than vintage performance. 4/10

Vladimir Radmanovic: Moves well without the ball, makes open shots, and tries on the defensive glass. Nice qualities to have in the ninth man in your rotation. 4/10

Jannero Pargo: He will have to make some open shots because he does nothing else to contribute. Despite good effort, his size really inhibits his effectiveness on the defensive end. 2/10

Willie Green: Bad offense, bad defense, bad player. 1/10

Ivan Johnson: Pargo and Green kept the ball from him during the two minutes he played. No rating.

The head coach
Another double-digit win notable for an appreciation of what Jeff Teague brings to the team. Saw the first intimations of understanding and reacting to the lack of backcourt depth with Teague playing the entire third quarter and both Marvin and McGrady getting some time at the 2. Flip Saunders didn't really go for it while the Hawks struggled to score for much of the fourth quarter. There will be more challenging games but I don't see how one could hold that against Larry Drew when evaluating his performance tonight. 8/10

A thought regarding the opposition
If Chris Singleton can make open shots, then the Wizards will have a very nice rotation player. Which will be desperately needed if Andray Blatche and Jordan Crawford aren't making shots.

Truth About It: 3-on-3: Back To Atlanta, What On Earth Will Jordan Crawford Do?

2011-12-28T11:59:00.001-05:00

For the second day in a row, I'm riding the coattails of a more industrious TrueHoop Network blog. Over at Truth About It, Kyle Weide, Rashad Mobley, and I each posed a question for the 3-on-3 previewing tonight's game between the Wizards and Hawks:

Rashad Mobley: The Hawks lack a significant scoring threat off the bench, and Wizards are lacking a veteran presence in the back court to mentor/guide/spell John Wall. Jordan Crawford could be that bench threat for the Hawks, and Kirk Hinrich (when healthy) could play that role again for the Wizards. The draft pick part of the trade that brought Chris Singleton to D.C. notwithstanding, would Crawford and Hinrich be more effective on their old teams?

Bret LaGree: Hawks fans generally agreed that Jordan Crawford was talented but whether or not he could use his talents within the structure of a good basketball team proved divisive. Can he be a starter on a playoff team or is he destined for a life putting up shots on bad teams?

Kyle Weidie: It’s fiscally understandable that Atlanta had to let Jamal Crawford go. People might also agree that Tracy McGrady was a decent, low risk signing. But Willie Green, Jannero Pargo and Jerry Stackhouse….? Really? Why not kick Gilbert Arenas’ tires?

Click the link to read our answers. Leave your own in the comments.

ESPN.com: Stein: What will Magic want for Dwight?

2011-12-28T09:39:00.001-05:00

Marc Stein reports on trade discussions between the Hawks and Magic regarding Dwight Howard, Joe Johnson, and Josh Smith:

Sources told ESPN.com that the aforementioned Hawks, meanwhile, engaged Orlando in trade talks for Howard earlier this month with an offer believed to be headlined by $124 million guard Joe Johnson and swingman Josh Smith. You have to figure that the Magic, though, would insist on Al Horford if such discussions ever got serious.

The Hawks are not on Howard's short list of preferred trade destinations alongside the Nets, Los Angeles Lakers and Dallas Mavericks, even though Atlanta is his hometown. That's presumably because Howard wants no part of Atlanta's perpetually unsettled ownership situation. The Hawks nonetheless took the risk of pursuing Howard anyway and, according to sources, felt like they were making some semblance of progress before the Magic shut down talks.

Otis Smith just traded Brandon Bass for Glen Davis so I'm not quite willing to figure that he would insist on Al Horford. Especially considering this paragraph from Stein's report:

Sources familiar with Orlando's thinking say that a picture of what the Magic will ultimately expect in return for their anchor has indeed begun to emerge, telling ESPN.com this week that Orlando would not hold out for youth and draft picks as the league-owned New Orleans Hornets were ordered to do in the Chris Paul sweepstakes. The Magic, sources say, would instead prefer to bring back multiple established veterans who can keep the team competitive.

This may be an instance where losing a franchise player in free agency and getting nothing in return benefits a franchise in the long term.

Quote of the Day -- December 28, 2011

2011-12-28T08:25:00.000-05:00

Tracy McGrady:

"I’m a gamer, man. That’s what I am. I just get bored with preseason. I know that sounds crazy but I really do. The anticipation builds up for the offseason, especially being healthy and get out there and play. I’m like, let’s get this real thing going on."

Crazy? Or the sanest thing you've ever heard?

Initial Feedback: Atlanta Hawks Blow Out New Jersey Nets In Season Opener

2011-12-27T22:05:00.000-05:00

Opening Night Game Preview: Atlanta Hawks (0-0) at New Jersey Nets (1-0)

2011-12-27T17:02:00.000-05:00

For some thoughts more specific to tonight's game, check out the 3-on-3 at Nets Are Scorching.

I don't doubt the sincerity of Larry Drew's desire to have his team play more aggressive defense and push the tempo this season, nor that Jeff Teague's presence will aid both efforts. Aggressive defense and The Horford Treatment cannot co-exist and I'm confident that, if picking up two fouls in the first half while playing aggressive defense leads to lengthy spells on the bench, then players will adjust as necessary to keep themselves on the court.

As for tempo, last season the Hawks finished 27th in possessions per game, same as in 2009-10, but, effectively, last year's team played at a much slower pace. Mike Woodson's last team had so few possessions because it never turned the ball over and got a lot of offensive rebounds. Larry Drew's first team turned the ball over at a roughly league-average rate and never got an offensive rebound. I expect the Hawks, in the half-court under Drew, will continue to run several seconds of motion offense to create a jump shot, so they'll have to increase tempo by creating transition opportunities to off-set a deliberate half-court offense.

The main reason the Hawks haven't pushed the tempo more often over the past several seasons has been poor defensive rebounding. Under Woodson, the switching defense often inverted the personnel, having big men challenge shooters and guards left to block out on the boxes. Last season, Larry Drew admittedly suffered from Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams being limited by injury but also gave over 1,000 minutes, for reasons good and ill, to poor rebounding big men Jason Collins and Josh Powell.

Also, Jamal Crawford (from John Hollinger's player comments):

Crawford predictably regressed from his fluke rule season in 2009-10...his rebounding went from merely poor to You Can't Be Serious. Crawford is 6-6 and athletic; nobody expects him to outmuscle Kevin Love on the block, but you'd think a few boards would come his way just by dumb luck. Instead he rebounded only 3.4 percent of missed shots when he was on the floor, the single worst figure in the entire NBA. In a league that employed J.J. Barea, Earl Boykins, Aaron Brooks, Patty Mills and Pooh Jeter, among others, Crawford -- who, again, is 6-6 -- managed to land at rock bottom.

This was not only the worst figure in the NBA last season, it was very nearly the worst in history by a player 6-6 or taller. However, it turns out that there was another 6-6 Hawk who was even worse -- Randy Wittman posted a 3.3 in 1986-87, as did one other player (Jim Paxson in 1989-90).

Crawford will be missed whenever the second unit struggles to score (which, admittedly, could be a nightly occurrence) but his absence will be a virtue every time the other team has the ball, both before and after a shot goes up.

Official 2011-12 Season Predictions

2011-12-26T11:32:00.000-05:00

The Hawks are going to make the playoffs. No disrespect to Lawrence Frank and Dwane Casey, nor the organizations that made the sound decisions to hire them, but there are only ten teams I expect to try and make the playoffs in the East this season. Furthermore, I expect only two of those ten teams -- Miami and Chicago -- to be especially good, with a very compact group of teams finishing third through ninth in the conference.

I think the Christmas Day games lend early support to this opinion. Without Paul Pierce, the Celtics started Sasha Pavlovic and had Marquis Daniels, Keyon Dooling, and Chris Wilcox in the rotation. The Knicks are concerned about replacing Iman Shumpert and Jared Jeffries. The Magic willingly traded Brandon Bass for Glen Davis, further weakening the supporting cast for (the possibly unsettled) Dwight Howard who might finish the season there. I'm not sure that Philadelphia, Milwaukee, and Indiana aren't all going to finish ahead of at least one of Boston, New York, and Orlando.

So I'm optimistic about the Hawks for external reasons. And for internal reasons as well. The Hawks have two All-Star caliber players in the frontcourt, an essentially new two-way point guard, and two potentially above average wing players who should be healthier than last season. Yes, the bench is old and, until Kirk Hinrich returns, pretty much lacks anyone who can be counted on to do two things well every night but the bottom third of the Eastern Conference could be really terrible, thus allowing the Hawks, if* they take care of business, to marshal their strength for the sterner tests they'll face. Who knows, maybe Larry Drew's ability to make use of Jason Collins can extend to some of the other one-dimensional old players on the roster.

*a big if, I know

I anticipate the Hawks winning between 31 and 35 games. If they win more that, great, they'll probably be competing for the third seed in the East. That will be fun. If they win fewer than that, then the organization may finally have to come to terms with the work that needs to be done to create a championship-caliber team and decide to get a head start on the summer of 2013. Those efforts should be interesting in the short term and might provide the greatest long-term benefit to the franchise since Billy Knight drafted Al Horford.

Hickory-High: NBA Wish Lists

2011-12-24T19:57:00.000-05:00

'Tis the season over at Hickory-High, where Ian Levy got myself, Jason Walker from Peachtree Hoops and 66 other NBA bloggers to make a wish for their team.

SB Nation: Ziller: Previewing the Southeast Division

2011-12-24T09:08:00.000-05:00

Tom Ziller predicts no playoffs for the Hawks:

The Hawks are the team in the NBA least likely to earn a repeat trip to the playoffs. Atlanta was the East's No. 5 seed last season and even knocked out the Magic in the first round. But that was largely smoke and mirrors. Atlanta had a negative efficiency differential, which means that based on scoring margin, the Hawks were a below-.500 team. The Hawks won a good share of close games, but when they lost, they usually got blown out of the gym. By slaying Orlando, Larry Drew showed himself to be a pretty good coach. But so long as Joe Johnson plays like he did last season -- average, basically -- this team's backcourt just isn't good enough to ensure another postseason bid. Al Horford and Josh Smith can only do so much.

The Salary Cap Situation In 140 Characters

2011-12-23T20:49:00.000-05:00

No need to re-type the whole thing here, is there?

Hawks Waive Keith Benson, Plan To Start Season With 15 Players

2011-12-23T19:08:00.000-05:00

Second-round pick Keith Benson didn't make it to the regular season, either.

Surprisingly, given the team's proximity to the luxury tax line, the Hawks will start the season with 15 players on the roster. Starting with the good news, quality D-League products Ivan Johnson (an active, if undersized, four who could be able to score off the bench) and Donald Sloan (a young, cheap, and legitimate third point guard*) will start the season with the team. The bad news is that neither figures to play as long as thirtysomethings Tracy McGrady, Willie Green (whose contract is guaranteed), Jannero Pargo, Vladimir Radmanovic, and Jerry Stackhouse** are around. Both are more likely to be cut than any of the guys whose best*** days are behind them.

*I'm counting Jeff Teague and Kirk Hinrich as point guards. Pargo might bring the ball up at times while Hinrich recovers from surgery but Pargo isn't going to play point guard in any traditional sense of the term.

**Jerry Stackhouse is 37 years old and has played 162, 855, and 50 sub-replacement level minutes in each of the past three seasons, respectively. I can't see why the Hawks would keep him around in a non-coaching capacity, further flirting with the luxury tax, unless Larry Drew intends to put him on the floor in games that count. Furthermore, I fear that he's on the roster because he scored 10% of his total regular season points over the last three seasons in the three games he played for Milwaukee against the Hawks in 2009-10.

***Best not being synonymous with either good or productive in some cases.

The Hawks are going to be in serious trouble if any of their top seven guys get hurt (as the scramble to deal with the short-term loss of Kirk Hinirch, in 2011, demonstrates) regardless of which freely available players fill out the back end of the roster but they've taken the least interesting path* in completing that task. Young guys who can't play will always inspire greater interest than an old guys who can't play. For a not-especially-successful franchise committed, in the important ways, to more of the same, in perpetuity, it seems the least they could do to stoke fan interest around the margins rather than import re-treads en masse.

The odd thing is I'm optimistic about many things this season: Joe Johnson shooting better than last season, Jeff Teague playing regular minutes, Josh Smith weighing 225 pounds, Marvin Williams being healthy, not having Mike Bibby and Jamal Crawford on the court for a single possession when the other team has the ball. But last year's team was somewhere between a 38- and 44-win squad. Will all those improvements by the starters (should they even come to pass) make up for the guys who will be on the court after a starter picks up two first half fouls, needs a rest due to the compressed schedule or, heaven forfend, gets hurt?

*So the Hawks waived Pape Sy because he couldn't play point guard. The Venn diagram of people who have seen Pape Sy play professional basketball and people who think Pape Sy could ever play point guard in the NBA would consist of a small circle in the center of the page in front of you representing the former and a dot on a piece of paper in a drawer in the attic representing the latter.

Hardwood Paroxysm: The 2011-12 Atlanta Hawks Preview That Only Like Forty People Will Care About

2011-12-23T16:51:00.000-05:00

Their title, not mine, though someone there might have gotten a glimpse at my traffic numbers.

You've got Danny Chau on Josh Smith:

Al Horford is their best player, Joe Johnson is their most experienced leader, and Jeff Teague is their brightest glimmer of sunshine. But they don’t matter as much as Smith, because everyone else on the roster is safe. With the snap of a finger, Josh Smith could be traded. Teams would bend over backwards to obtain a player with his superior size, athleticism, defensive ability, playmaking ability, and post skills still in his mid-20s. Now if you close your eyes and let all of those traits swirl around in your head, you have a damn-near-perfect player. The problem is, if you’ve ever watch Josh Smith play outside of the five-minute YouTube mixes, you’ll know that he can go entire quarters without exhibiting any (ANY!) of those traits.

Amin Vafa on the general state of things:

So basically what you have in Atlanta is a roster with tons of raw talent, an immobile franchise-player-level contract, and erratic energy that will most certainly play the ugliest two rounds of playoff basketball you’ve ever seen (this coming year and in years past).

James Herbert on his willingness to start a cult about Jeff Teague:

We love Jeff Teague because he’s not safe. We’d start a cult about Teague because, on a team we’re not particularly excited about, he gives us a reason to tune in. He’s extraordinarily quick, he’s actually drives to the basket, he plays defense, and, unlike the rest of the Hawks roster, we’re not sure where his ceiling is.

Hawks Waive Pape Sy, Ending a Bizarre Non-Era

2011-12-23T11:31:00.000-05:00

Pape Sy is probably never going to be a useful NBA player. In that respect, the decision to waive him (along with Magnum Rolle and Brad Wanamaker) is perfectly defensible for a team struggling to reach the league's roster minimum without going over the luxury tax line.

It does not make the decision to draft Sy, despite his age and lack of professional experience, or to buy out his contract despite their being no role for him to play on the 2010-11 Hawks team any more explicable. The Hawks spent money on a player who wasn't ready and, after his first, brief period professional success, they give up on him.

Sy's tenure with the team demonstrates the same lack of long-term planning and wasteful spending as does the need to fill out the roster (again, minimally fill out the roster) with replacement level players in their thirties because of habitually poor cap management and player development, factors which are far more likely than Pape Sy's presence or absence to impact the 2011-12 Atlanta Hawks season negatively.

Hawks Sign Willie Green

2011-12-22T19:08:00.000-05:00

I must say that, having become inured to his constant Willie Green-ness and being somewhat thankful that he was some other blogger's problem, I hadn't noticed that Green has stopped turning the ball over. So he's got that going for him. Related, the frontcourt has copious offensive rebounding opportunities to look forward to.

Over the age of 30, lacking three-point range, and unable to get to the foul line consistently, Green shouldn't face much of a learning curve in adapting to the Hawks' system. Per John Hollinger (via Hoopdata, presumably), more than half of Green's field goal attempts were long twos.

If Green gets a shot at some of Jamal Crawford's minutes, he'll be a better rebounder and defender than Crawford without being good at either endeavor. If Green gets a shot at some of Jamal Crawford's minutes, we might find ourselves constructing sentences involving the phrase "Mike Bibby wasn't that bad."

Pape Sy might not just be the most interesting reserve guard on this team (until Kirk Hinrich returns), he might be the most talented basketball player. Willie Green and Jannero Pargo are what happen when you can't afford to fill out your roster with guaranteed minimum contracts.

Hawks Sign Jannero Pargo

2011-12-22T18:53:00.000-05:00

Fun with the Hoopinion archives, from August 13, 2008:

I thought signing Jannero Pargo was a bad idea but leave it to the Atlanta Hawks to take an unappealing hypothetical transaction and do one worse by making an unexpected actual move that's far more dispiriting: signing Flip Murray to block Acie Law IV.

If believing in Acie Law's potential doesn't take you back, then remember a time before Mike Woodson revealed himself as the lead guard whisperer, a time before I believed that every team should have someone like Jannero Pargo, an in-case-of-emergency-break-glass gunner employed for the express purpose of shooting as often as possible at irregular intervals over the course of the season in games where a conventional, idealistic approach has failed.

Granted, the idea of using a roster spot on such a player assumes fairly idealistic roster construction as a whole, something this Hawks team lacks. Pargo figures to be the backup point guard until Kirk Hinrich returns, getting regular playing time to combine his trademark inefficient scoring with his lack of playmaking ability. But, considering how difficult it is for the rest of the Hawks reserves to score, it's not like a truer, younger point guard such as Donald Sloan figured to have much success creating shots for his fellow reserves.

The pressure only grows on Larry Drew to expand his ability to wring value out of the one-dimensional Jason Collins across the entirety of the bottom half of his roster.

Pro Basketball Prospectus 2011-12 Now On Sale

2011-12-21T17:57:00.000-05:00

Kevin Pelton and Bradford Doolittle were more than a match for the compressed pre-season as Pro Basketball Prospectus 2011-12 is available for purchase. In the Hawks chapter, Bradford explores why the Hawks defy their projection system and, for the third year in a row, I'm proud to have submitted a sidebar item.

It's only $9.98 to download. Not yet convinced? Read the free samples.

Hawks Lose Exhibition Opener

2011-12-19T21:41:00.000-05:00

Boxscore

Nobody got hurt.
Marvin Williams has a strong head of hair.
Jannero Pargo's joining the Hawks tomorrow, undermining what interest one might have had in watching Donald Sloan and Brad Wanamaker tonight.
Since basically nobody coming of the bench for the Hawks can score, much less create his own shot, the team's lack of depth is going to appear exaggerated if the reserves play as a unit.
Jerry Stackhouse has nothing left. Hasn't for years.

Thinking Out Loud About the Roster and the Luxury Tax

2011-12-14T12:10:00.001-05:00

The season starts in less than two weeks. It hasn't sunk in yet.

I have the Hawks at $69,249,116 plus Keith Benson's rookie deal (terms still undisclosed). The Hawks have 13 guys under contract. By position:

PG: Jeff Teague/Kirk Hinrich (injured)
SG: Joe Johnson/Pape Sy*
SF: Marvin Williams/Tracy McGrady
PF: Josh Smith/Vladimir Radmanovic/Magnum Rolle/Keith Benson
C: Al Horford/Zaza Pachulia/Jason Collins

With only one healthy point guard on the roster, just 12 healthy players total, and at least one rookie who would likely best be served with some playing time in the D-League, and the luxury tax line expected to be around $70.3 million, that appears to present a serious problem. Almost like the Hawks cannot sign a free agent with two or more years of NBA experience without going over the tax line.

Though I'm confident the luxury tax line is an issue for management, it needn't be an absolute concern at this point in time. Presuming the new CBA calculates the luxury tax the same way as the last CBA, the Hawks would only need to get under the tax line before their last game of the season.

Therefore, the Hawks could take advantage of Magnum Rolle's unguaranteed deal either before or during the season, replace him with a player making the two-year veteran minimum and only add roughly $55,500 to their wage bill. Sign a rookie free agent to a partially guaranteed deal to be the 14th player (13th until Kirk Hinrich returns), cut him before his contract become fully guaranteed for the season, stagger the use of 10-day contracts, maybe make a trade at the deadline that sends out more salary than is received, and the Hawks can, fairly comfortably, go over the luxury tax line in December in order to build temporary depth (in numbers if not in quality). Depending on when Hinrich returns vis-a-vis the deadline for contracts to become fully guaranteed, the Hawks could even buy some D-League time for Keith Benson in the middle of the season depending on who they (hypothetically) sign and how they stagger those 10-day contracts.

I admit that such speculation lacks the frisson of how to clear up enough cap room to make a run at Dwight Howard and one of Chris Paul or Deron Williams in the Summer of 2012 scenarios but, as a five-year vet (by choice) of this particular beat, one learns to play the hand dealt.

*For good or for ill (and I'm a serious Pape Sy playing time booster at this point, separate post on that pending), Pape Sy transcends positional designations.

HoopSpeak: Harper: The Hawks and Kumite DVDs

2011-12-14T06:58:00.001-05:00

Yesterday, I linked to Eric Freeman using "Kicking and Screaming" to preview the Atlanta Hawks. Today, I link to Zach Harper using some other premillennial home video favorites for the same purpose:

There is something about Van Damme movies that I’ve always enjoyed. Maybe it’s because I can’t do the splits and appreciate that level of flexibility. Maybe it’s that while they’re extremely entertaining and a great way to kill a couple of hours with eyebrow flirting (It’s the only way he knows how to flirt), a disarming and sometimes intelligible accent, and flying roundhouse kicks to catapult through random wood doors and bay windows. Or maybe it’s just that I’ve always wanted the supreme balance to hold my foot in someone’s face and then turn my body 90 degrees before putting it down.

Whatever the reason is, I appreciate the level of entertainment they provide while not having to fully invest in the franchise. You can find a bargain version of each DVD and think you got a steal.

That’s kind of what it’s like following the Atlanta Hawks over the past year. They’ve spent so lavishly on “DVDs” that are so unsatisfying when you realize how much you spent on them, that you start relishing when you find a bargain. Al Horford is a legitimate bargain for the five-year, $60 million extension. Tracy McGrady and whatever he can hopefully bring to the Hawks before his back gives out is probably a steal for the veteran’s minimum.

But do those contracts make you honestly feel better about what the Hawks have going for them? Does it make up for Joe Johnson’s absurd contract or the money you’re paying Josh Smith to sandwich his YouTube highlights betweens multiple slices of horrendous shot selection? We want to like the Hawks because they seem like they’d be really fun. But in reality, it’s a mismatched clusterfluff of annoyance and frustration at what we want the potential to be.

A Terriers* fan would have gone with fustercluck.

*Now streaming on Netflix.

Hoops Analyst: Schreiber: Atlanta Hawks Transactions

2011-12-13T14:38:00.001-05:00

Harlan Schreiber weighs in on the Tracy McGrady and Vladimir Radmanovic signings:

Did you know that T-Mac is only 32? In a part-time role, McGrady wasn’t actually that bad for the Pistons either. The problem is that one of the most exciting players of the 2000s is now, at best, an average bench guy who can’t really get to the line and is a decent shooter. On a playoff-level team, T-Mac’s presence as a cheap filler will have value, assuming the knees hold up well enough. The hope, though, is that McGrady can replace Jamal Crawford off the bench. At first blush this seems silly. McGrady can’t move very well these days and Crawford got ridiculously hot at times. Looking at the advanced metrics, though, T-Mac actually had a slightly higher PER than Crawford (14.9 to 14.2) and shot exactly the same from three (.341%). Does this mean that McGrady is a more valuable player? Well…no. Part of Crawford’s value was the ability to generate tons of shots (13.7 shots and 4.1 free throws per-36 versus 11.0 and 2.8 for McGrady). The Hawks are downgrading on 2010-11 stats (though not by as much as you would think). Still when you combine the volume with the possibility that McGrady might get hurt again or continue his steep decline from his peak, there is plenty of risk that the Hawks will have a big hole at backup sixth man.

As for Radmanovic, he has demonstrated that he will never be a regular but is also useful in a bench role. While Vlad still can’t play any defense and is thus not a viable starter, he will help the Hawks replace the tons of threes lost when Crawford doesn’t come back. In short, the Hawks’ filler is useful but has some holes.

It's going to be heart-in-mouth time whenever a Hawks player turns an ankle this season, but lack of depth is the price you pay for not planning long-term and/or willfully limiting your cap flexibility.

Monday's Pre-Season Game To Be Televised On NBA TV

2011-12-13T10:30:00.000-05:00

Atlanta's trip to Charlotte on December 19th will be one of 10 pre-season games shown live over a six-day period on NBA TV. John Schuhmann:

It’s been exactly six months since we’ve seen live NBA basketball, but the drought is about to end. The preseason tips off on Friday. And while the action is bound to be a little sloppy, we’re all salivating at the thought of seeing our teams back in action.

And NBA TV has got you covered, televising 10 preseason games over the course of six days, beginning with No. 1 pick Kyrie Irving‘s first game in an NBA uniform.

Here’s the full NBA TV preseason schedule (all times EST), which includes 18 of the 30 teams…

Friday, Dec. 16
Cleveland @ Detroit, 7:30 p.m.

Saturday, Dec. 17
New York @ New Jersey, 2 p.m.
San Antonio @ Houston, 8 p.m
Sacramento @ Golden State, 10:30 p.m.

Sunday, Dec. 18
Oklahoma City @ Dallas, 7:30 p.m.

Monday, Dec. 19
Atlanta @ Charlotte, 7 p.m.
LA Clippers @ LA Lakers, 10:30 p.m.

Tuesday, Dec. 20
Washington @ Philadelphia, 7 p.m.

Wednesday, Dec. 21
Miami @ Orlando, 7 p.m.
LA Lakers @ LA Clippers, 10:30 p.m.

Post-lockout basketball plus the meaninglessness of exhibition basketball plus the long-gestating need to make snap judgments equals entertainment gold.

Ball Don't Lie: 2011-12 Atlanta Hawks Preview

2011-12-13T06:23:00.000-05:00

Kelly Dwyer, Dan Devine, and Eric Freeman preview the Atlanta Hawks.

Dwyer:

The Hawks have been so consistent in their 45-win'ness that you wonder what a significant shock to the system would do to this club. The offense should vault up a tick this season based on the presence of a well-rested McGrady and Johnson's assumed return to form, but unless a whole lot of the East tears a whole lot of ligaments, the Hawks seem safe in their station. Set to look sound for stretches and take in whatever playoff gate receipts away them in spring.

Devine:

Three years after spending a first-round draft pick on Teague, it's time for the Hawks to give him an actual, honest-to-goodness chance to play starters' minutes.

They need to find out if he can be the brand of explosive backcourt creator they've so desperately needed since choosing Marvin Williams over Deron Williams and Chris Paul in the 2005 NBA Draft. (And if you've always viewed Jason Terry as more of a two-in-one's-clothing than a real point guard, you might even argue that they've needed that type of player since Mookie Blaylock went west.) If Teague can prove that his play against the Bulls was the rule rather than the exception, he could be just the sort of spark that can help a relatively stagnant, middle-of-the-pack team finally break through that second-round ceiling.

Freeman:

In Noah Baumbach's first (and still best) feature, "Kicking and Screaming" (which isn't the Will Ferrell soccer movie), a group of friends graduate college and spend the rest of the movie doing very little else with their lives. One pines after his absent girlfriend, some join book clubs just to feel relevant, and pretty much everyone starts dating much younger women. The majority of hope is felt in remembering good things that happened in the past. It'd all be depressing, if not for Baumbach's extremely clever script and great performances from Josh Hamilton (who isn't the baseball player) and especially Chris Eigeman.

The Hawks have effectively graduated from promising young playoff team to postseason mainstay, but in doing so they've seen their trajectory flatten considerably. They're really not building towards anything anymore -- it's all cool Josh Smith dunks, 25-point games from Joe Johnson, and quality all-around play from Al Horford in the service of another middling seed and a less-than-stellar playoff series.

ESPN.com: Southeast Division Daily Dime Live

2011-12-12T10:01:00.001-05:00

Daily Dime Live previews the Southeast Division from 11am to 4pm today. The Hawks will be covered from 2-3pm. Not by me, though. Consider that fair warning or a bonus.

Hawks Sign Vladimir Radmanovic, Politely Ask Him To Go Stand in the Corner

2011-12-10T09:09:00.001-05:00

You're not going to get good all-around players for the league minimum and, if you focus your acquisitive efforts on guys in their thirties, you're not looking for potential. The Hawks aren't looking to discover* Gary Neal or Reggie Williams or Anthony Morrow. Instead, they're looking at what guys once were, and hoping that, for another eight or nine hundred minutes, what they are is a reasonable, if faded, facsimile of what they once were.

Vladimir Radmanovic can make threes. The Hawks were 17th in the league in three-pointers made an 18th in the league in three-point field goal percentage. As long as others create shots for him, he should knock them down. He won't turn the ball over. Signing him doesn't signal a move toward a defensive-oriented philosophy, but he's a decent defensive rebounder for a stretch-four and anything that improves the Hawks' spacing will be an improvement over last season.

*Brad Wanamaker, Donald Sloan, please feel free to prove me wrong.

ProBasketballTalk: Mahoney: Hawks show uncharacteristic sensibility with signing of Tracy McGrady

2011-12-08T18:02:00.000-05:00

The NBA needn't be officially open for business for me to take an unpopular and possibly incorrect position. Bronn made a case for Tracy McGrady in the comments of that post and Rob Mahoney compliments the Hawks for signing McGrady at Pro Basketball Talk today:

McGrady may not have the ability to dribble-penetrating ability that Atlanta so desperately needs, but he’s an incredibly cost-efficient addition capable of hedging against the seemingly inevitable loss of Jamal Crawford. The Hawks aren’t in a position where re-signing Crawford makes financial sense; they already have $66 million in salary committed for this season and $62 million committed next year, meaning that Crawford’s deal would likely push a solid — but firmly non-contending — team over the luxury tax line. Even beyond the practical consideration of overpaying a dwindling, inefficient scorer like Crawford, the financial realities for a tax-averse team like Atlanta make a re-signing a virtual impossibility.

Such is the reality for a franchise that presented Joe Johnson with a golden effigy on the first day of free agency last season, invested in Marvin Williams to the tune of $8 million a year, and took every shortcut there is to take in team construction.

All of which makes McGrady — who will join the Hawks on a one-year, minimum salary deal — an oddly reasonable signing.

...

For the league minimum, this is very likely the best the Hawks could possibly do. McGrady isn’t what he once was (and certainly isn’t Crawford), but this is a smart, economical move for a team with such a cluttered cap sheet.

John Hollinger's player profile of McGrady (Insider) provides further reason for measured optimism:

McGrady was an intriguing player to watch last season because of the huge variance in his play from night to night. There were games when his legs were back and it looked like the old days -- soaring over defenders for jumpers, driving and finding open men, or dunking at the rim. Other nights you wanted to run out on the court and give him a Segway to get around.

If Larry Drew can spot McGrady with anything approaching the alacrity with which he used Jason Collins for much of last season, the Hawks may have another interesting low-minute impact player. Maybe McGrady's comeback season in Detroit suffered from too much playing time and, if he doesn't have 1600 good minutes in him, he has 800.

Then there's the chance that signing McGrady signals something of a philosophical shift for the Hawks. Collins, reportedly, will return on a third consecutive one-year deal. Earl Watson, his value heavy on the defensive end as well, may serve as the injured Kirk Hinrich's understudy. And trading Jamal Crawford for Ronnie Brewer, whether it comes to pass or not, is emphatically not a typical move for this franchise.

Now, any or all of these signings come with a price. Namely, that none of these guys can shoot. But the Hawks should, with Josh Smith and Al Horford and (a healthy) Joe Johnson and (an on-court) Jeff Teague should be able to get away with having a defense-first player on the court at all times. Smith and Horford, in particular, have carried a heavy defensive workload to keep the Hawks a league average defensive club the past two seasons. Who knows what they could accomplish with a little help on the perimeter? A lighter defensive workload might even make a positive impact for them, and the team, on the offensive end.

ESPN.com: Smith: Atlanta Hawks Agree To One-Year Deal With Tracy McGrady

2011-12-07T19:24:00.000-05:00

Stephen A. Smith reports that the Atlanta Hawks have agreed to a one-year deal with Tracy McGrady for, natch, the veteran's minimum. McGrady's physical decline and his accompanying, increasingly impotent on-court performance makes me feel sad and old. And now he's a Hawk.

Let's go down the Hawks' free agent checklist...

Cheap? Yes.

Old? 32 years worth, not counting the history of back and knee problems.

A recognizable name? Yes, though signing McGrady represents something of a breakthrough for the Hawks as he's recognizable for being a once great basketball player rather than going to high school or college in Atlanta or being the nephew of the city's greatest professional basketball player.

Little reason for optimism evident in his recent performance record? Yes. McGrady had something of a bounce-back season, more due to how horrific his 2009-10 season was than anything special he achieved in 2010-11.

Tracy McGrady scored at a lower rate than Marvin Williams last season. McGrady set a career low in usage rate and a career high in turnover rate. He's no sort of replacement for Jamal Crawford and I say that as one who thinks Jamal Crawford shouldn't be replaced in a straight like-for-like (but cheaper) exchange. Maybe McGrady is a better* option at the 2 than Damien Wilkins when Larry Drew wants to go big and McGrady will certainly out-rebound Crawford (and probably Joe Johnson, too), but any positive contributions from McGrady will constitute more of a feel good story than reasonable expectations, like playing a little better than Damien Wilkins, being met.

*Optimism alert: The Pistons were measurably less bad defensively with McGrady on the court last season and he made box score defensive plays at something approaching his career rate.

ESPN.com: Hollinger: Atlanta Hawks Player Profiles

2011-12-06T12:44:00.000-05:00

John Hollinger's player profiles for the Atlanta Hawks (Insider) are officially up today. For those of you without Insider access, today's 5-on-5 is all about the Hawks.

2010-11 Season Review: Josh Powell

2011-12-05T09:39:00.000-05:00

Previously: Kirk Hinrich, Jeff Teague, Marvin Williams, Jason Collins, Jamal Crawford, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford, Rick Sund, Larry Drew

Quite predictably, Josh Powell was a complete disaster, needing only 653 minute of court time to turn the team's point differential from positive (+50 when Powell didn't play) to negative (-117 when Powell was on the court).

In his previous two seasons, the Los Angeles Lakers were outscored by 8.4 and 5.7 points per 100 possessions with Powell on the floor. Last season, the Hawks were outscored by 8.9 points per 100 possessions with Powell on the floor. It was worse than that during the competitive portion of the schedule, as Powell played 90 minutes with a plus/minus of just -2 over the final four games of the season, games which the Hawks did not try very hard to win.

By his standards, Powell had a decent offensive season, scoring 12 points per 36 minutes while approaching 50 TS%, and getting 9% of available offensive rebounds. Even on a team that featured Mike Bibby and Jamal Crawford, Powell's embarrassing defense stood out. His method of defending the pick-and-roll by running hard toward the half-court line, past both ball-handler and screener, and setting his hips perpendicular to the baseline beggarded belief. To Powell's credit, despite frequently having his back turned to potential defensive rebounds, he did manage to equal Marvin Williams' DR% over the course of the season.

Powell earned credit for his locker room presence in Los Angeles, so it should be noted that he was twice suspended (for one game each time) by Larry Drew, not counting the game he missed after getting arrested for a moving violation on the way to Philips Arena.

Off the Dribble: Mahoney: Give Teague a Chance

2011-12-03T09:08:00.001-05:00

Friend of the blog, Rob Mahoney, makes the case for Jeff Teague at NYTimes.com's NBA blog:

Increasing the minutes for Jeff Teague is one of the few low-cost, high-reward propositions the Hawks have for boosting their performance. He isn’t an All-Star caliber player by any means, but Teague presents Atlanta with a more dynamic scoring guard to accentuate the roster’s offensive versatility. In his one playoff series with operational freedom, Teague led the Hawks in scoring in three out of six games – topping 20 points on each occasion in slow-paced games played against the best defense in the league.

On a Hawks team that is committed to the inefficiency of long 2-pointers and tough pull-up jumpers out of isolation, Teague brought a .514 playoff field goal percentage while committing few turnovers. He went from playing marginal minutes to doing 40 a night, and led the Hawks in playoff P.E.R. (Player Efficiency Rating) in the process. If you’re looking for a compelling reason Atlanta was able to play effectively against Chicago in the postseason, I see few more valid explanations than Teague’s performance.

This coming year is Teague’s chance to build on that success, but he can only do so with Drew’s approval.

It is not uncommon for coaches to trust veterans over young players, but the basis for that perspective in Teague’s case is now gone. Teague has produced as a meaningful member of Atlanta’s lineup in a way that Hinrich never could, and if Drew is finally willing to let Teague continue to explore his optimal role, the Hawks will be all the better for it.

Good News/Bad News: Josh Smith Drops Weight, Kirk Hinrich Drops One Healthy Shoulder

2011-12-02T17:25:00.000-05:00

Official NBA business need not resume for the league's finest beat writer to display mid-season form. Michael Cunningham dropped news good and bad last night.

First, the good news: Josh Smith is visibly slimmer. Cunningham:

I noted he looked to be in good shape when I saw him at the local pickup game back in October, but he’s even slimmer now, suggesting he’s been putting in work since then. The torso is slimmer but the shoulders are still stout, as you can see here at the Hawks web site.

In reviewing Josh Smith's 2010-11 performance, I speculated that his weight might have contributed to his perimeter-oriented play, a situation that rendered the value of his improved shooting essentially nil. Josh Smith, in better shape, might more regularly make the effort to take the shots he can make most often, while also getting back to the offensive glass and the free throw line.

Now for the bad news: the Hawks have just seven players under contract, are $7 million over the cap and one of those seven players won't be healthy to start the season. Kirk Hinrich had shoulder surgery about a month ago:

Hawks general manager Rick Sund said guard Kirk Hinrich had surgery to to remove a cyst and repair the labrum in his left shoulder and is expected to miss at least the first month of the regular season.

Hinrich experienced discomfort in his shoulder as a result of offseason workouts and had the procedure in early November.

“The injury typically requires three to four months of recovery,” Sund said

Based on that timeline, Hinrich could be out through the end of February. The 66-game NBA regular season schedule is to begin Dec. 25 if there are no snags in the ratification of the new collective bargaining agreement.

(NOTE: Ken Berger first reported Hinrich's surgery).

The Hawks figured to augment the seven players under contract by picking up Pape Sy's unguaranteed deal, trying to re-sign Damien Wilkins and Jason Collins, and possibly Magnum Rolle if he has an opt-out to his Korean deal. With Hinrich out for up to two months, the Hawks will have to acquire a cheap backup (or backups) for both guard spots. Obvious candidates such as Mustafa Shakur and Garrett Temple are in Europe and they aren't coming back for the season. Not that the Hawks need any encouragement to look to veterans to fill out the rotation.

The Free Agent Clearinghouse Post

2011-11-30T15:13:00.000-05:00

At SBNation, Tom Ziller provides a list of all 2012 NBA free agents, restricted and unrestricted.

At Baskerball-Reference.com, Neil Paine lists all the guys who are playing overseas but do not have an opt-out clause. (In related news, the 2010-11 Season Review: Josh Powell is on deck.)

Keeping in mind the salary cap limitations (barring an unexpected leap into the realm of NBA luxury tax payers) the Hawks have created for themselves means they might need to include a a rookie free agent or two in their December acquisitions, speculate away.

2010-11 Season Review: Kirk Hinrich

2011-11-30T08:59:00.000-05:00

Previously: Jeff Teague, Marvin Williams, Jason Collins, Jamal Crawford, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford, Rick Sund, Larry Drew

The Hawks acquired Kirk Hinirch too late in the season (and Hinrich is too far past his peak) for him to have any real impact on their record but he formed, with Jason Collins and Jamal Crawford, the unlikely triumvirate central to Atlanta's first round playoff upset of the Orlando Magic. Hinrich even timed his season-ending injury such that the outcome of the first series was not put in jeopardy while giving Jeff Teague his first real opportunity to demonstrate that he can play.

Yes, the Hawks gave up a lot to acquire Hinrich, but that's more a giving Mike Bibby a three-year contract problem than a Kirk Hinrich problem. If the Hawks choose to keep Hinrich, he can play alongside either Teague or Joe Johnson, providing useful positional versatility on what figures to be a shallow roster. That positional versatility at both ends of the floor also makes Hinrich the team's second-most valuable* trade asset.

*assuming the team would trade, at most, only one of Josh Smith or Al Horford

Unlike last season, where trading Jamal Crawford in the final year of his contract made theoretical sense but lacked practical plausibility, let's remember that Hinrich was acquired not for Acie Law IV and Speedy Claxton's expiring deal but for Jordan Crawford and a first round pick. If the Hawks decide to deal Hinrich (a decision that may strain credulity as it assumes the Hawks taking a long-term approach to roster and cap management), they might get back some of what they gave up to acquire Hinrich in the first place.

2010-11 Season Review: Jeff Teague

2011-11-29T09:13:00.001-05:00

Previously: Marvin Williams, Jason Collins, Jamal Crawford, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Al Horford, Rick Sund, Larry Drew

Even though he played better in his second season than he did in his rookie campaign, Jeff Teague could not turn competent performances into consistent playing time. Even though Teague's box score numbers compared favorably both to the team's other options and backup point guards around the league and his on/off numbers were perfectly fine* when paired with a regular member of the team's 2-guard rotation.

*Updating those on/off numbers for the full season: the Hawks were -1.2 points per 100 possessions (over 1536 possessions) when Teague wasn't paired with Jordan Crawford, Pape Sy, Mike Bibby or Damien Wilkins in the backcourt.

The questions about Jeff Teague took a turn to the meta as the season progressed. Did his inability to earn regular playing time from two different head coaches over two full seasons despite all public evidence indicating the ability to do a job speak more to him having limitations largely imperceptible to outsiders or a greater organizational dysfunction?

Then Kirk Hinrich got hurt in Game 6 of the Orlando series and Larry Drew no choice but to give Jeff Teague regular minutes in Atlanta's second round series against the Chicago Bulls. Against newly-crowned MVP Derrick Rose. And the question was answered quickly and decisively. It wasn't because Teague can't play. Before his injury-shortened appearance in Game 6, Teague played more than 40 minutes a night in the series, scored more than 16 points a game with a 61.3 TS%, 22 assists against just 5 turnovers, 3 rebounds* a game, 6 steals and 3 blocks.

Beyond the numbers, Teague provided things in that playoff series that the Hawks so often lacked during the season: dribble penetration, trips to the free throw line, active perimeter defense. Given regular opportunities, he should (as long as his relatively slight frame can withstand his relatively physical style of play) do so again.

*Not a lot unless the baseline for point guard rebounding has been established by Mike Bibby and Jamal Crawford and any activity on the glass counts as value added.

Zaza Pachulia, Pape Sy Productive in Europe

2011-11-28T12:31:00.000-05:00

Zaza Pachulia scored 19 points and grabbed 10 rebounds as Galatasaray beat Asseco Prokom 78-76 in Euroleague play on Thursday.

Pape Sy has overcome a slow start for Gravelines-Dunkerque to score 69 points on just 38 shots in just 78 minutes over his last five league games. In two Euro Cup games, Sy has scored 25 points on 17 shots and grabbed 11 rebounds in just under 35 minutes. Sy has only played nine games for Gravelines-Dunkerque but it's been far and away the most productive stretch of his professional career and an encouraging sign for an Atlanta Hawks team that may lack options when filling out its roster.

Amnesty Options for the Atlanta Hawks

2011-11-27T12:06:00.000-05:00

Assuming the new CBA gets ratified by both players and owners, it will contain the following amnesty provision:

Each team permitted to waive 1 player prior to any season of the CBA (only for contracts in place at the inception of the CBA) and have 100% of the player’s salary removed from team salary for Cap and Tax purposes.
Salary of amnestied players included for purposes of calculating players’ agreed-upon share of BRI.
A modified waiver process will be utilized for players waived pursuant to the Amnesty rule, under which teams with Room under the Cap can submit competing offers to assume some but not all of the player’s remaining contract. If a player’s contract is claimed in this manner, the remaining portion of the player’s salary will continue to be paid by the team that waived him.

The Hawks are in a pretty terrible position with regard to the salary cap: about $7 million over the cap (counting neither the unguaranteed deals to Pape Sy and Magnum Rolle nor cap holds for the empty roster spaces) despite having just seven players under contract for the 2011-12 season and only $4 million scheduled to come off the books (and some guaranteed money to be added should the team keep its first round draft pick) after the season. The Hawks are both unlikely to pay the luxury tax and unlikely to get under the salary cap by any significant amount for either the 2011-12 or 2012-13 seasons.

What follows may be an academic exercise. The current ownership group chose to keep Randolph Morris on the roster to play 124 minutes in 2009-10 rather than pay him the $855,189 he was guaranteed and either use his roster spot on someone potentially useful or sign an additional player who might have been more productive. Admittedly, this history creates plausibility problems for the options discussed below, wherein ASG would choose to risk paying 10 times as much as Morris was due in 2009-10 for a far more useful professional basketball player not to play for the Hawks.

So, disclaiming the very real possibility that the Hawks will never use the amnesty provision of the new, tentatively agreed-upon CBA, the team has three potential amnesty options:

1) Kirk Hinrich -- Using the amnesty provision on Hinrich would be the cheapest option as his pro-rated 2011-12 salary will be around $6.5 million. Presumably, using the provision on Hinrich would be a short-term move inspired by a desire to use the MLE*, the Bi-Annual Exception, or just fill out the back end of the roster with veterans rather than the likes of Pape Sy, Keith Benson, Magnum Rolle, or their inexperienced (and cheaper) ilk. I suspect the Hawks are more likely to trade Hinrich than use the amnesty provision on him.

*Choosing to amnesty Hinrich in order to use the MLE to re-sign Jamal Crawford is probably the worst of all potential choices.

2) Marvin Williams -- If the Hawks amnesty Williams before this season starts, they'll still owe him $25 million and would be under the salary cap, but by less than $1 million and with seven roster to spots to fill. If the Hawks amnesty Williams before next season, they'd owe him just under $17 million and would be below $52 million in salary owed (not counting a 2012 first round pick's guaranteed contract) to the five remaining players under contract.

As the Hawks don't gain much flexibility by just using the amnesty provision on Williams before this season begins (though the combination of amnestying Williams and trading Hinrich might have interesting consequences), the number and type of players other teams amnesty will likely impact the Hawks' decision. If a bunch of teams use the amnesty provision immediately, then it's less likely Williams would draw sufficient interest under the third part of the amnesty provision wherein another team currently under the cap would defray some of the money Atlanta owes him. However, that might mean that Williams would draw greater interest as an amnestied free agent next summer when teams had fewer options from which to choose.

The reverse is not necessarily true. Even if the majority of teams hold on to their amnesty provision, Williams' market value is at an all-time low right now so the Hawks might not benefit from a thin market of amnestied players in December.

3) Joe Johnson -- If things go south (or even stagnate) for the Hawks over the course of this season and the next, 2013 could hold massive rebuilding potential for the team. Al Horford, Joe Johnson, and Jeff Teague (if the Hawks make a qualifying offer for him) are the only players currently under contract beyond the end of the 2012-13 season.

If rebuilding becomes a reality, the Hawks would also figure to have their 2012 and 2013 first round picks under contract, plus the haul from a Josh Smith trade (as it's highly unlikely the Hawks will just let Smith leave via free agency). In such a scenario, the Hawks might have enough players on team-friendly contracts that it would make sense both to pay Joe Johnson the remaining $69 million in order to get that cap space back and pursue free agents in 2013 and 2014.

Because of that third part of the amnesty provision, there is a chance that it would make sense for a team under the salary cap to assume some of Joe Johnson's contract and defray the cost to the Hawks of using the amnesty provision on Johnson. Again, it's not that Joe Johnson is a worthless basketball player, it's just that he's not going to be worth $20+ million dollars a year for his age 32-34 seasons.

NBA Basketball Tentatively Coming Soon

2011-11-26T08:33:00.000-05:00

There's a handshake deal in place for a labor agreement that would result in a 66-game season beginning on December 25th. Players and owners must still vote to approve the deal.

The players should vote for the deal because professional basketball careers are short and it's better to be paid under an owner-friendly CBA* than not paid at all. The owners should vote for the deal because they've won hundreds of millions of dollars, annually, from the players and because, by cramming 66 games into the schedule the quality of play may be sufficiently degraded to achieve some semblance of competitive balance.

*It remains a fair question as to whether the NBPA should have recognized their collective lack of leverage and the extreme hard-line positions of a sizable minority of owners and decertified the union far earlier in the process.

As the deal gets approved or not, as practical applications of the new CBA's provisions become clear and as free agency approaches on December 9th, the focus on team-specific concerns will return to this space, like the approaching season, in concentrated form.