Sunday, July 03, 2016

Sunday Morning Projections

I'm going to hold off on writing about the off-season in any depth until at least one transaction is official. In the meantime, back of the envelope BPM noodling for the 2016-17 Atlanta Hawks, based on the incomplete knowledge we have:

Player Minutes OBPM DBPM
Schroder 2500 -0.5 -0.5
Korver 2400 0.5 0.4
Bazemore 2294 -1.5 1.5
Millsap 2700 1.1 3.1
Howard 2100 -1.0 2.0
Backup PGs 1436 -2.6 -1.3
Sefolosha 1700 -2.0 2.7
Hardaway Jr 1000 -0.5 -1.2
Bembry 500 -2.0 -1.0
Scott 1000 -0.4 -1.8
Prince 600 -0.7 -2.3
Muscala 600 -1.2 1.0
Splitter 550 -1.9 1.1
Tavares 300 -3.5 1.5
(blank)
TOTAL 19680 -3.8 3.9

This would roughly be a top 5 defense and bottom 5 offense, good for 41 wins, give or take a few. I'll update as the summer progresses.

Notes:
  • These are conservative, weighted heavily toward career averages, but tilted toward Hawks career averages (so maybe that's a really optimistic projection for Tim Hardaway, Jr.)
  • The above projects a bounce-back season for Dwight Howard
  • I plugged in established replacement-level backup point guard Norris Cole's career averages as a placeholder for the backup point guards the Hawks will eventually acquire
  • Just guessing for Bembry and Prince, but unless the roster composition changes I don't think they'll play enough minutes for my ignorance when it comes to projecting rookies to have much of an impact on team-level projections