Friday, February 09, 2007

Performance in At-risk Games: SEC through 2/8/07


SEC WestEff MarginRecord
Arkansas+54-5
Ole Miss+14-5
Mississippi St03-6
Alabama-85-4
LSU-92-7
Auburn-104-6


SEC EastEff MarginRecord
Florida+249-0
Kentucky+167-2
Vanderbilt+56-3
Georgia+15-5
Tennessee-54-5
South Carolina-182-7

Disclaimer: Obviously, all at-risk games (all losses plus road/neutral wins plus home wins against NCAA Tournament teams) are not created equally so I'll provide more information than just the numbers. I am listing teams in order of efficiency margin (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) simply as an organizational choice. These are not rankings.

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Florida8-212098+22
vs. SEC9-012197+24

Wins: vs. Western Kentucky (+40), vs. Florida A&M (+21), Ohio State (+40), vs. UAB (+6), @South Carolina (+53), @Mississippi State (+8), @Auburn (+47), @Georgia (+14)

Losses: vs. Kansas (-7), @Florida State (-3)

Also: Tennessee (+24)

With the understanding that I've never been clear if All-Conference teams are supposed to reflect a player's performance just in league games or over the course of the entire season, Lee Humphrey is an interesting case. Almost all of of his shots are created by his teammates, but at what outstanding conversion rate does Humphrey become an All-SEC candidate himself? Humphrey is scoring 31.6 Pts/100 while shooting 87.7 eFG% in conference play.

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Kentucky7-510799+8
vs. SEC7-211498+16

Wins: vs. DePaul (+6), vs. Chattanooga (+25), Indiana (+8), @Louisville (+21), @Ole Miss (+20), @South Carolina (+60), @Arkansas (+16)

Losses: vs. UCLA (-5), vs. Memphis (-18), @North Carolina (-18), Vanderbilt (-10), @Georgia (-10)

Also: Tennessee (+26)

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Mississippi St2-10104105-1
vs. SEC3-61101100

Wins: @Miami, FL (+25), vs. New Orleans (+43)

Losses: Winthrop (-18), @Clemson (-5), @George Mason (-9), @Missouri (-9), @Tennessee (-5), @Kentucky (-6), Florida (-8), @Ole Miss (-27), @Alabama (+5)

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Tennessee5-899102-3
vs. SEC4-5105110-5

Wins: vs. Fordham (+12), vs. UNC-Wilmington (+16), @Louisiana-Lafayette (+10), Memphis (+26), vs. Oklahoma State (+5)

Losses: vs. Butler (-18), vs. North Carolina (-15), @Vanderbilt (-3), @Ohio State (-4), @Auburn (-2), @Ole Miss (-19), @Kentucky (-26), @Florida (-24)

Also: Texas (+3)

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Vanderbilt4-7103106-3
vs. SEC6-3111106+5

Wins: vs. Tennessee Tech (+16), @Rice (+10), @Kentucky (+10), @LSU (+24)

Losses: Georgetown (-19), @Wake Forest (-12), Furman (-13), vs. Appalachian State (-13), @Auburn (-2), @Georgia (-19), @Florida (-12)

Also: Tennessee (+3)

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Ole Miss4-8103106-3
vs. SEC4-5104103+1

Wins: vs. Fairfield (+8), vs. Central Arkansas (+26), @South Alabama (+15), @Auburn (+34)

Losses: @UConn (-28), @Memphis (-19), @Saint Louis (-5), Kentucky (-20), @Mississippi State (-12), @LSU (-15), @Florida (-16), @Vanderbilt (-6)

Also: Tennessee (+19)

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Alabama6-5103107-4
vs. SEC5-4105113-8

Wins: vs. Middle Tennessee State (+15), vs. Iowa (+16), vs. Xavier (+15), vs. Southern Miss (+16), @NC State (+10), @LSU (+7)

Losses: @Notre Dame (-15), @Arkansas (-34), @Vanderbilt (-27), @Auburn (-34), Arkansas (-11)

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Arkansas4-897104-7
vs. SEC4-510297+5

Wins: vs. Southern Illinois (+13), vs. Marist (+11), vs. West Virginia (+11), @Alabama (+11)

Losses: @Missouri (-31), vs. Texas Tech (-25), @Texas (-10), @Florida (-12), @Ole Miss (-3), Georgia (-2), @South Carolina (-10), Kentucky (-16)

Also: Alabama (+34)

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Georgia4-999106-7
vs. SEC5-5105104+1

Wins: @Wake Forest (-4), vs. Gonzaga (+13), @Arkansas (+2), Kentucky (+10)

Losses: Western Kentucky (-6), @Georgia Tech (-12), @Clemson (-22), Wisconsin (-17), @Florida (-24), @Alabama (-5), @Tennessee (-13), @Vanderbilt (-7), Florida (-14)

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
LSU3-1096103-7
vs. SEC2-796105-9

Wins: @Tulane (+8), Texas A&M (+21), @Oregon State (+11)

Losses: Wichita State (-9), vs. Texas (-2), @Washington (-26), @Alabama (-15), @Arkansas (-35), Vanderbilt (-24), @Georgia (-4), Alabama (-7), @Mississippi State (-11), @Tennessee (+1)

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
South Carolina4-10101116-15
vs. SEC2-7101119-18

Wins: @USC (+6), @The Citadel (+30), @Baylor (+4), @Mississippi State (+4)

Losses: @UC-Irvine (-25), Clemson (-29), Kansas (-25), @Georgia (-38), Florida (-53), Kentucky (-60), @Tennessee (-10), Auburn (-9), @Alabama (-4), @Kentucky (-5)

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Auburn1-1192111-19
vs. SEC4-699109-10

Win: @South Carolina (+9)

Losses: vs. Oklahoma State (-2), vs. Wisconsin (-20), Pittsburgh (-15), Texas A&M (-42), @Southern Miss (-5), @Kentucky (-34), @LSU (-5), @Mississippi State (-15), Florida (-47), Ole Miss (-34), @Arkansas (-12)

Also: Tennessee (+2), Alabama (+34)

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