Performance in At-risk Games: Pac-10 through 2/11/07

Team	Eff Margin	Record
UCLA	+15	10-2
Washington St	+15	10-3
USC	+9	8-4
Arizona	+9	8-5
Oregon	+1	8-5
Stanford	+1	7-5
Washington	-4	6-7
Cal	-11	4-8
Arizona St	-14	0-13
Oregon St	-22	2-11

Disclaimer: Obviously, all at-risk games (all losses plus road/neutral wins plus home wins against NCAA Tournament teams) are not created equally so I'll provide more information than just the numbers. I am listing teams in order of efficiency margin (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) simply as an organizational choice. These are not rankings.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Washington St	12-4	106	97	+9
vs. Pac-10	10-3	108	93	+15

Wins: vs. UAB (+18), @UW-Milwaukee (+35), vs. Radford (+27), vs. Boise State (+3), Gonzaga (+14), @Idaho (+18), vs. San Diego State (+20), @USC (+5), Arizona (+7), @Cal (+27), @Arizona (+13), @Arizona State (+2)

Losses: @Utah (-22), @UCLA (-5), @Stanford (-4), Oregon (-3)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
UCLA	9-3	107	99	+8
vs. Pac-10	10-2	110	95	+15

Wins: vs.Kentucky (+5), vs. Georgia Tech (+26), vs. Texas A&M (+5), Washington State (+5), @Oregon State (+23), @USC (-2), Arizona (+8), @Cal (+28), Oregon (+21)

Losses: @Oregon (-4), @Stanford (-12), @West Virginia (-9)

Also: USC (+11)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
USC	7-7	102	100	+2
vs. Pac-10	8-4	108	99	+9

Wins: vs. George Washington (+16), vs. Wichita State (+1), @Oregon (-1), @Oregon State (+66), Arizona (+12), @Cal (+9), Oregon (+6)

Losses: South Carolina (-6), @Kansas (-14), vs. Kansas State (-20), Washington State (-5), UCLA (+2), @Stanford (-22), @UCLA (-11)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Oregon	8-5	107	106	+1
vs. Pac-10	8-5	110	109	+1

Wins: @Rice (+8), @Georgetown (+10), vs. Nebraska (+26), @Oregon State (+4), UCLA (+4), @Arizona State (+5), @Arizona (+7), @Washington State (+3)

Losses: USC (+1), @Washington (-20), @UCLA (-21), @USC (-6), Arizona (-4)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Arizona	7-7	108	108	0
vs. Pac-10	8-5	116	107	+9

Wins: vs. Illinois (+14), vs. Louisville (+12), @San Diego State (+34), Memphis (+13), @Washington (+8), @Oregon State (+14), @Oregon (+4)

Losses: @Virginia (-11), @Washington State (-7), Oregon (-7), @USC (-12), @UCLA (-8), North Carolina (-30), Washington State (-13)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Stanford	8-8	100	105	-5
vs. Pac-10	7-5	104	103	+1

Wins: vs. Texas Tech (+13), @Fresno State (+4), @Arizona State (+15), @Virginia (+1), Washington State (+4), @Oregon State (+18), UCLA (+12), @Cal (+29)

Losses: Air Force (-63), Santa Clara (-24), @Arizona (-23), California (-2), @Oregon (-18), Gonzaga (-4), @Washington State (-26), @Washington (-19)

Also: USC (+22)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Cal	6-12	104	114	-10
vs. Pac-10	4-8	105	116	-11

Wins: vs. Marshall (+6), vs. Hawaii (+23), vs. Loyola Marymount (+8), @Arizona State (+2), @Stanford (+2), @Oregon State (+11)

Losses: @San Diego State (-11), vs. Nevada (-11), San Diego (-10), @DePaul (-45), @Arizona (-12), Washington State (-27), @Oregon (-12), UCLA (-28), USC (-9), Stanford (-29), @Washington (-12), @Washington State (-24)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Arizona St	0-18	95	108	-13
vs. Pac-10	0-13	94	108	-14

Losses: Northern Arizona (-8), Portland State (-6), @Minnesota (-3), @Xavier (-27), Davidson (-8), Stanford (-15), Cal (-2), @Washington State (-34), @Washington (-23), Oregon (-5), Oregon State (-14), @UCLA (-19), @USC (-19), @Arizona (-42), Washington (-5), Washington State (-2), @Oregon (-10), @Oregon State (-2)

That's 10 of 18 losses by less than 10 points per 100 possessions.

METHODOLOGY NOTE: Should the Sun Devils go 0-18 in conference play, all wins @Arizona State will be removed from teams' at-risk profiles.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Washington	2-8	102	117	-15
vs. Pac-10	6-7	105	109	-4

Wins: Oregon (+20), @Arizona State (+5)

Losses: @Gonzaga (-30), @USC (-13), @UCLA (-28), Arizona (-8), @Stanford (-7), @Cal (-9), @Washington State (-41), @Arizona (-45)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Oregon St	3-16	91	112	-21
vs. Pac-10	2-11	94	116	-22

Wins: @Northern Colorado (-4), @Montana State (+13), @Arizona State (-14)

Losses: SE Louisiana (-5), Nevada (-43), @Hawaii (-57), Fresno State (-8), LSU (-11), Oregon (-4), UCLA (-23), USC (-66), @Arizona (-21), Cal (-11), Stanford (-16), @Washington State (-32), @Washington (-23), @USC (-29), @UCLA (-68), Arizona (-14)