| Team | Eff Margin | Record |
| Creighton | +12 | 11-3 |
| Missouri St | +12 | 9-5 |
| Southern Illinois | +9 | 11-3 |
| Wichita St | +1 | 6-7 |
| Northern Iowa | 0 | 7-6 |
| Bradley | -2 | 7-7 |
| Evansville | -4 | 5-9 |
| Indiana St | -10 | 5-8 |
| Illinois St | -10 | 4-10 |
| Drake | -11 | 3-10 |
Disclaimer: Obviously, all at-risk games (all losses plus road/neutral wins plus home wins against NCAA Tournament teams)are not created equally so I'll provide more information than just the numbers. I am listing teams in order of efficiency margin(points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) simply as an organizational choice. These are not rankings.
I think Southern Illinois is safely in the NCAA tournament. Thus, Evansville, Bradley, Northern Iowa, and Indiana have their home wins over the Salukis included in their at-risk profiles as of now.
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Southern Illinois | 9-5 | 99 | 95 | +4 |
| vs. MVC | 11-3 | 106 | 97 | +9 |
Wins: vs. Minnesota (+21), vs. Virginia Tech (+7), @Louisiana Tech (+25), @Western Kentucky (-1), @St. Mary's (+10), @Illinois State (+32), @Drake (+4), @Creighton (-1), @Wichita State (+15)
Losses: vs. Arkansas (-13), @Indiana (-21), @Northern Iowa (-10), @Bradley (+2), @Evansville (-14)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Missouri State | 7-7 | 105 | 101 | +4 |
| vs. MVC | 9-5 | 114 | 102 | +12 |
Wins: vs. Wisconsin (+10), @UNC-Wilmington (+23), @South Florida (+17), @Bradley (+16), @Illinois State (+16), @Drake (+8), @Indiana State (+43)
Losses: vs. Oklahoma State (-6), @St Louis (+1), @Creighton (+7), @Southern Illinois (-29), Northern Iowa (-13), @Evansville (-15), Creighton (-7)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Creighton | 7-7 | 104 | 101 | +3 |
| vs. MVC | 11-3 | 112 | 100 | +12 |
Wins: vs. Valparaiso (+40), vs. Houston (+20), @Evansville (+24), @Northern Iowa (+16), @Missouri State (+7), @Bradley (+14), @Drake (+11)
Losses: @Nebraska (-17), @Dayton (-7), @Fresno State (-23), @Hawaii (-24), @Indiana State (-5), @Wichita State (-15), Southern Illinois (+1)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Northern Iowa | 8-8 | 102 | 101 | +1 |
| vs. MVC | 7-6 | 103 | 103 | 0 |
Wins: vs. Nicholls State (+9), vs. Pepperdine (+42), @Bucknell (+23), @Iowa (+6), @Wichita State (+8), Southern Illinois (+10), @Missouri State (+13), @Evansville (+11)
Losses: @Washington (-14), @Loyola-Chicago (-14), @Illinois State (-5), Creighton (-16), @Southern Illinois (-2), @Drake (-15), Wichita State (-16), @Indiana State (-25)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Wichita St | 6-9 | 104 | 106 | -2 |
| vs. MVC | 6-7 | 108 | 107 | +1 |
Wins: @George Mason (+11), @LSU (+9), @Syracuse (+4), vs. Wyoming (+22), @Evansville (+12), @Northern Iowa (+16)
Losses: vs. New Mexico (-1), vs. USC (-1), Northern Iowa (-8), @Southern Illinois (-3), @Missouri State (-14), @Indiana State (-12), @Illinois State (-12), @Bradley (-26), Southern Illinois (-15)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Bradley | 6-10 | 105 | 111 | -6 |
| vs. MVC | 7-7 | 107 | 109 | -2 |
Wins: vs. Rutgers (+36), vs. Iowa State (+12), @Drake (+4), Southern Illinois (-2), @Indiana State (+38), @Illinois State (+12)
Losses: vs. Illinois (-7), @Tennessee Tech (-8), @Michigan State (-41), @Northern Iowa (-15), Missouri State (-16), @Wichita State (-36), @Creighton (-21), @Missouri State (-24), @Southern Illinois (-16)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Drake | 4-12 | 106 | 115 | -9 |
| vs. MVC | 3-10 | 107 | 118 | -11 |
Wins: vs. SE Missouri State (+37), @Iowa State (+1), vs. Toledo (+25), vs. Jackson State (+5)
Losses: vs. Utah State (-29), vs. Troy (-11), @Evansville (-34), @Indiana State (-18), Southern Illinois (-4), Bradley (-4), @Creighton (-37), @Southern Illinois (-18), @Illinois State (-27), @Wichita State (-6), Missouri State (-8), Creighton (-11)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Evansville | 4-13 | 103 | 112 | -9 |
| vs. MVC | 5-9 | 103 | 107 | -4 |
Wins: @Tennessee-Martin (+28), @Austin Peay (+11), Southern Illinois (+14), @Indiana State (-3)
Losses: @Lipscomb (-7), Miami, FL (-11), @Missouri (-26), @Butler (-14), @Bradley (-11), @Northern Iowa (0), Creighton (-24), @Missouri State (-67), @Wichita State (-22), Wichita State (-12), @Illinois State (-8), Northern Iowa (-11), @Creighton (-7)
Also: Missouri State (+15)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Illinois St | 3-13 | 95 | 105 | -10 |
| vs. MVC | 4-10 | 99 | 109 | -10 |
Wins: vs. McNeese State (+28), @St. John's (+20), @Illinois-Chicago (+15)
Losses: vs. SMU (-1), @Florida State (-18), @Evansville (-43), @Western Michigan (-14), Southern Illinois (-32), @Creighton (-14), Indiana State (-3), @Drake (-1), Missouri State (-16), @Bradley (-29), @Southern Illinois (-18), Bradley (-12), @Missouri State (-17)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Indiana St | 3-11 | 95 | 109 | -14 |
| vs. MVC | 5-8 | 97 | 107 | -10 |
Wins: @IPFW (+13), Butler (+13), @Illinois State (+3)
Losses: @Indiana (-13), @Middle Tennessee State (-10), @Ball State (-4), @Missouri State (-30), Bradley (-38), @Drake (-11), @Northern Iowa (-22), Evansville (+3), @Creighton (-27), @Southern Illinois (-20), Missouri State (-43)
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