Friday, February 09, 2007

Performance in At-risk Games: Mid-Major Overview through 2/8/07

Disclaimer: Obviously, all at-risk games (all losses plus road/neutral wins plus home wins against NCAA Tournament teams)are not created equally so I'll provide more information than just the numbers. I am listing teams in order of efficiency margin(points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) simply as an organizational choice. These are not rankings.

CAA

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
VCU10-411499+15
vs. CAA13-1122101+21

Wins: @Longwood (+21), vs. College of Charleston (+18), @Elon (+61), @Albany (+26), @Richmond (+22), @Towson (+3), @James Madison (+34), @Williams & Mary (+23), @George Mason (+22), @Drexel (+12)

Losses: vs. Xavier (-4), vs. Toledo (-1), Appalachian State (-8), @Hofstra (-18)

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Drexel11-610297+5
vs. CAA10-410495+9

Wins: @Vermont (+22), vs. St. Joseph's (+26), @Villanova (+5), @Syracuse (+9), @Temple (+27), @Georgia State (+10), @James Madison (+20), @Delaware (+17), @UNC-Wilmington (+24), @Northeastern (+18), @Hofstra (+9)

Losses: vs. Penn (-26), @Rider (-16), Hofstra (-1), @Old Dominion (-39), VCU (-12), Old Dominion (-16)

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Hofstra9-7108107+1
vs. CAA11-3113103+10

Wins: vs. Marshall (+12), @Siena (+6), @Stony Brook (+29), vs. St. Joseph's (+3), @St. John's (+23), @UNC-Wilmington (+13), @Drexel (+1), @Georgia State (+15), @Towson (+8)

Losses: @Charlotte (-12), @Manhattan (-11), vs. Hawaii (-1), @Syracuse (-37), @Northeastern (-22), @Delaware (-6), Drexel (-9)

Also: VCU (+18)

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Old Dominion6-71031030
vs. CAA11-310991+12

Wins: @Georgetown (+26), @Northeastern (+13), @UNC-Wilmington (+23), @Drexel (+16), @George Mason (+15), @Georgia State (+18)

Losses: Clemson (-5), @Marist (-18), @Virginia Tech (-28), Winthrop (-7), @Hofstra (-24), @James Madison (-13), @VCU (-9)

C-USA

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Memphis7-310696+10
vs. C-USA10-011589+26

Wins: vs. Oklahoma (+20), vs. Kentucky (+18), @Houston (+15), @Southern Miss (+21), @East Carolina (+26), @Central Florida (+28), @UAB (+22)

Losses: vs. Georgia Tech (-9), @Tennessee (-26), @Arizona (-13)

Horizon

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Butler12-211395+18
vs. Horizon11-112495+29

Wins: @Tulane (+70), vs. Notre Dame (+3), vs. Indiana (+8), vs. Tennessee (+17), vs. Gonzaga (+16), @ Valparaiso (+20), vs. Purdue (+5), @UW-Milwaukee (+5), @Loyola-Chicago (+9), @Detroit (+18), @Youngstown State (+20), @Cleveland State (+78)

Losses: @Indiana State (-13), @Illinois-Chicago (-14)

Last night, @Cleveland State, Butler scored 1.74 points per possession. That's the highest single-game mark I've seen this year and I'm tracking individual game results for about 100 teams right now. Butler shot 84.3 eFG% and got 57.9% of the possible offensive rebounds.

Pete Campbell played sparingly over the first thirteen games of the season: 80 minutes, 47.1 eFG% on 35 shots, 27.9 Pts/100. Starting with the Wright State game, something changed. Since then (11 games), Campbell has been scoring and shooting at a ridiculous clip: 239 minutes, 86.8 eFG% on 91 shots, 47.5 Pts/100. He chips in with some rebounds (5.9 OR%/10.9 DR%) and never, ever turns the ball over (1.1 TO/100).

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Wright St9-898106-8
vs. Horizon11-210896+12

Wins: @Miami, OH (+1), @St. Bonaventure (+4), vs. Samford (+24), vs. Mississippi Valley State (0), @Cleveland State (+14), @Loyola-Chicago (+21), @UW-Green Bay (+18), @Detroit (+10), @Illinois-Chicago (+12)

Losses: @Coastal Carolina (-12), @Chicago State (-27), @Bradley (-55), @Marshall (-12), Bowling Green (-7), @LSU (-49), @Butler (-56), @UW-Milwaukee (-9)

Wright State has no chance at an at-large berth, but they're having a nice conference season. They're included here to put Butler's Horizon League dominance in perspective. The Raiders have a 3 1/2 game lead in the race for second in the Horizon League and they're still 17 points per 100 possession worse than Butler in league play. Not to mention they were 56 points per 100 possessions worse than Butler in their head-to-head meeting.

MWC

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Air Force9-411799+18
vs. MVC7-311097+13

Wins: vs. Long Beach State (+5), @Stanford (+63), @Colorado (+57), vs. Texas Tech (+27), vs. Wake Forest (+57), vs. George Washington (+24), @Santa Clara (+58), @Colorado State (+15), @Wyoming (+5)

Losses: vs. Duke (-25), @Utah (-8), @BYU (-18), @San Diego State (-35)

The Falcons have lost their last three road games and now trail BYU in the MWC's average efficiency margin standings.

On a more positive note, those blowout road wins @Stanford and @Santa Clara look more impressive than they did in December.

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
UNLV7-5106101+5
vs. MVC7-3110106+4

Wins: vs. Northern Arizona (+61), @Hawaii (+3), @Nevada (+15), @Texas Tech (+10), @Houston (+27), @TCU (+16), @Colorado State (+26)

Losses: UC Santa Barbara (-4), @Arizona (-22), @Air Force (-14), @Wyoming (-12), @BYU (-44)

Also: BYU (+14)

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
BYU5-6109110-1
vs. MVC8-2120103+17

Wins: @Weber State (+2), @New Mexico (+42), Air Force (+18), @Utah (+21), @Wyoming (+9)

Losses: @UCLA (-21), @Boise State (-8), vs. Michigan State (-21), @Lamar (-14), @UNLV (-14), @Colorado State (-15)

Four of those at-risk wins have come in the last five games. The Cougars are playing well right now, but they'd be well advised to go ahead and win the MWC Tournament just to be safe.

WAC

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Nevada10-2111100+11
vs. WAC10-1117103+14

Wins: @Oregon State (+43), @Santa Clara (+16), @Louisiana-Lafayette (+17), vs. California (+11), @Akron (+7), vs. Gonzaga (+12), @San Jose State (+17), @Hawaii (+2), @Louisiana Tech (+10), @Fresno State (+19)

Losses: UNLV (-15), @New Mexico State (-12)

A plausible candidate for George Washington treatment. With Northern Iowa appearing to fall apart, even the Bracket Buster game won't provide with a clear-cut best win with @Akron or vs. Gonzaga the current contenders.

WCC

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Gonzaga6-8107109-2
vs. WCC7-211496+18

Wins: vs. UNC (+10), vs. Texas (+11), @Santa Clara (+13), @Portland (+21), @Stanford (+4), @Pepperdine (+37)

Losses: vs. Butler (-17), @Washington State (-14), vs. Georgia (-13), vs. Duke (-19), vs. Nevada (-12), @Virginia (-32), @St. Mary's (-7), @Loyola-Marymount (-8)

Santa Clara still has to make their return trip to Spokane which should decide the regular season title. The WCC Tournament is in Portland this year so it should be more difficult (even though they should again be a heavy favorite) for Gonzaga to gain automatic entry to the tournament. Their at-large chances are slim, but would be helped (one would assume) by Texas, Stanford, and Virginia all making the field.

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Santa Clara6-79397-4
vs. WCC7-210593+12

Wins: vs. Alabama State (+43), @Pacific (+27), @Stanford (+24), @San Diego (+17), @San Francisco (+6), @St. Mary's (+9)

Losses: @Cal (-36), Nevada (-16), @Missouri State (-37), @Kentucky (-18), Air Force (-58), Gonzaga (-13), Loyola-Marymount (-4)

They have no chance at an at-large bid.

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