Performance in At-risk Games: Big East through 2/15/07

Team	Eff Margin	Record
Georgetown	+23	9-2
Pittsburgh	+15	10-2
Louisville	+10	8-4
Syracuse	+4	7-5
Marquette	+3	8-4
Notre Dame	+3	7-5
West Virginia	+3	7-5
Villanova	+3	6-5
UConn	+2	5-6
Providence	+1	5-6
DePaul	-2	6-6
St. John's	-10	6-7
Seton Hall	-10	3-8
USF	-14	3-9
Cincinnati	-14	1-10
Rutgers	-15	3-10

Disclaimer: Obviously, all at-risk games (all losses plus road/neutral wins plus home wins against NCAA Tournament teams) are not created equally so I'll provide more information than just the numbers. I am listing teams in order of efficiency margin (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) simply as an organizational choice. These are not rankings.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Georgetown	8-5	113	102	+11
vs. Big East	9-2	123	100	+23

Wins: @Vanderbilt (+19), @Fairfield (+23), @Michigan (+26), @Rutgers (+25), @Seton Hall (+24), @St. John's (+43), @Louisville (+17), Marquette (+30)

Losses: Old Dominion (-26), Oregon (-10), @Duke (-14), Villanova (-6), @Pittsburgh (-13)

Also: Notre Dame (+31), West Virginia (+35)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Villanova	9-7	108	99	+9
vs. Big East	6-5	105	102	+3

Wins: vs. College of Charleston (+18), vs. Iowa (+46), @Stony Brook (+44), vs. Penn (+14), @Oklahoma (+20), @LaSalle (+23), @Georgetown (+6), @Providence (+17), @seton Hall (+17)

Losses: vs. Xavier (-7), Drexel (-5), @West Virginia (-15), DePaul (-10), @Syracuse (-20), @Notre Dame (-1), Pittsburgh (-10)

Also: Notre Dame (+22), Texas (+14)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Pittsburgh	9-4	110	102	+8
vs. Big East	10-2	109	94	+15

Wins: vs. Western Michigan (+21), @Auburn (+15), @Buffalo (+9), @Syracuse (+11), @DePaul (+17), Georgetown (+13), @Cincinnati (+31), @Villanova (+10), @West Virginia (+21)

Losses: @Wisconsin (-24), vs. Oklahoma State (-4), Marquette (-6), Louisville (-16)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
West Virginia	8-6	110	105	+5
vs. Big East	7-5	107	104	+3

Wins: vs. Montana (+29), vs. Western Michigan (+35), vs. NC State (+21), @Duquense (+51), vs. Marshall (+18), @Rutgers (+17), @Seton Hall (+14), UCLA (+9)

Losses: vs. Arkansas (-11), @Notre Dame (-4), @Marquette (-28), @Cincinnati (-19), Pittsburgh (-21), @Georgetown (-35)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Syracuse	4-8	102	102	0
vs. Big East	7-5	105	101	+4

Wins: @Canisius (+20), @Marquette (+21), @Rutgers (+19), @South Florida (+24)

Losses: Wichita State (-4), vs. Oklahoma State (-9), Drexel (-9), Pittsburgh (-11), @St. John's (-5), @Louisville (-7), Notre Dame (-21), @UConn (-14)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Notre Dame	3-6	105	105	0
vs. Big East	7-5	107	104	+3

Wins: vs. Lafayette (+43), vs. Maryland (+9), @Syracuse (+19)

Losses: vs. Butler (-5), @Georgetown (-31), @Villanova (-22), @St. John's (-6), @South Florida (-9), @DePaul (-1)

Also: Alabama (+15), West Virginia (+4)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Marquette	7-6	98	100	-2
vs. Big East	8-4	103	100	+3

Wins: vs. Texas Tech (+16), vs. Duke (+21), @Valparaiso (+4), @UConn (+8), @Louisville (+12), @Pittsburgh (+6), @South Florida (+2)

Losses: North Dakota State (-6), Wisconsin (-5), @Providence (-24), Syracuse (-21), @Georgetown (-30), @DePaul (-7)

Also: West Virginia (+28)

They just don't score easily enough to be consistently good. They're good enough defensively to be dangerous in any single game.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Louisville	4-8	101	103	-2
vs. Big East	8-4	108	98	+10

Wins: @South Florida (+39), @DePaul (+13), @Cincinnati (+24), @Pittsburgh (+16)

Losses: vs. Dayton (-7), vs. Arizona (-12), UMass (-8), Kentucky (-21), @Notre Dame (-22), Marquette (-12), @Villanova (-8), Georgetown (-17)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
DePaul	5-11	101	107	-6
vs. Big East	6-6	100	102	-2

Wins: Kansas (+11), @Villanova (+10), @Rhode Island (+16), @Rutgers (+43), Marquette (+7)

Losses: @Bradley (-31), @Northwestern (-21), vs. Kentucky (-6), vs. Purdue (-16), @UAB (0), @St. John's (-22), Pittsburgh (-17), Louisville (-13), @Georgetown (-32), @West Virginia (-21), @Syracuse (-13)

Also: Notre Dame (+1)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
UConn	1-9	92	102	-10
vs. Big East	5-6	96	94	+2

Win: @St. John's (+15)

Losses: @West Virginia (-12), @LSU (-23), Marquette (-8), @Pittsburgh (-13), Indiana (-3), @Louisville (-20), Providence (-13), @DePaul (-8), vs. Georgia Tech (-19)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Providence	2-9	96	107	-11
vs. Big East	5-6	106	105	+1

Wins: Marquette (+24), @UConn (+13)

Losses: Brown (-15), @Florida (-28), @Florida State (-43), @Louisville (-27), @Seton Hall (-3), Villanova (-17), @Marquette (-13), @Pittsburgh (-8), @Notre Dame (-7)

Also: Boston College (+15)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Seton Hall	2-12	96	108	-12
vs. Big East	3-8	99	109	-10

Wins: @Morgan State (+26), vs. Liberty (+5)

Losses: Farleigh Dickinson (-8), vs. Virginia Tech (-24), vs. Oral Roberts (+1), @BYU (-14), @Providence (-33), @Notre Dame (-18), Georgetown (-24), @Marquette (-19), @Rutgers (-8), West Virginia (-14), Villanova (-17), @UConn (-15)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
South Florida	3-14	93	106	-13
vs. Big East	3-9	94	108	-14

Wins: @Winston-Salem State (+30), @East Carolina (+20), vs. Norfolk State (+43)

Losses: Richmond (-14), vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (-9), @UNLV (-20), Missouri State (-17), @UAB (-20), @UConn (-32), @Pittsburgh (-33), Louisville (-39), @West Virginia (-22), @Notre Dame (-34), Marquette (-2), @St. John's (-14), @Louisville (-30), Syracuse (-24)

Also: Notre Dame (+9)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Cincinnati	1-15	97	114	-17
vs. Big East	1-10	100	114	-14

Win: vs. Temple (+7)

Losses: Wofford (-1), UAB (-6), vs. Ohio State (-32), vs. Ohio (-19), @Memphis (-53), Rutgers (-23), @USF (-21), @Syracuse (0), Pittsburgh (-31), @Georgetown (-30), Louisville (-24), St. John's (-10), @Providence (-4), @Rutgers (-5), @Villanova (-24)

Also: Xavier (+18), West Virginia (+19)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
St. John's	2-11	94	112	-18
vs. Big East	6-7	95	105	-10

Wins: @Niagara (+33), @Cincinnati (+10)

Losses: Maryland (-41), Texas (-3), Illinois State (-20), Hofstra (-23), @West Virginia (-44), @Seton Hall (-26), UConn (-15), @DePaul (-16), @Pittsburgh (-42), Georgetown (-43), @Syracuse (-7)

Also: Notre Dame (+6)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Rutgers	2-16	90	111	-21
vs. Big East	3-10	95	110	-15

Wins: @Princeton (+14), @Cincinnati (+23)

Losses: Kansas State (-22), Jackson State (-7), vs. Bradley (-36), vs. Miami, OH (-22), @Temple (-39), @North Carolina (-60), @Seton Hall (-6), Syracuse (-19), DePaul (-43), Georgetown (-25), @Providence (-19), @South Florida (-40), West Virginia (-17), @UConn (-23), @Marquette (-36), @St. John's (-9)