| Team | Eff Margin | Record |
| Georgetown | +21 | 7-2 |
| Pittsburgh | +19 | 9-1 |
| Marquette | +8 | 8-2 |
| West Virginia | +7 | 7-4 |
| Louisville | +7 | 6-4 |
| Providence | +4 | 5-4 |
| Notre Dame | +3 | 6-4 |
| Syracuse | +1 | 5-5 |
| UConn | +1 | 4-6 |
| Villanova | 0 | 4-5 |
| DePaul | -3 | 4-6 |
| Seton Hall | -9 | 3-6 |
| USF | -11 | 3-7 |
| St. John's | -12 | 5-6 |
| Cincinnati | -13 | 1-8 |
| Rutgers | -18 | 2-9 |
Disclaimer: Obviously, all at-risk games (all losses plus road/neutral wins plus home wins against NCAA Tournament teams) are not created equally so I'll provide more information than just the numbers. I am listing teams in order of efficiency margin (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) simply as an organizational choice. These are not rankings.
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Pittsburgh | 9-3 | 112 | 102 | +10 |
| vs. Big East | 9-1 | 111 | 92 | +19 |
Wins: vs. Western Michigan (+21), @Auburn (+15), @Buffalo (+9), @Syracuse (+11), @DePaul (+17), Georgetown (+13), @Cincinnati (+31), @Villanova (+10), @West Virginia (+21)
Losses: @Wisconsin (-24), vs. Oklahoma State (-4), Marquette (-6)
I didn't expect this kind of defensive performance from Pittsburgh in conference play. Outside of their win over Georgetown, where the Panthers allowed 1.26 points per possession to the excellent Hoya offense, no one can score against Pittsburgh. Holding West Virginia to 0.76 points per possession in Morgantown last night is most impressive.
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Georgetown | 8-5 | 112 | 103 | +9 |
| vs. Big East | 7-2 | 123 | 102 | +21 |
Wins: @Vanderbilt (+19), @Fairfield (+23), @Michigan (+26), @Rutgers (+25), @Seton Hall (+24), @St. John's (+43), @Louisville (+17)
Losses: Old Dominion (-26), Oregon (-10), @Duke (-14), Villanova (-6), @Pittsburgh (-13)
Also: Notre Dame (+31)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| West Virginia | 7-5 | 112 | 104 | +8 |
| vs. Big East | 7-4 | 109 | 102 | +7 |
Wins: vs. Montana (+29), vs. Western Michigan (+35), vs. NC State (+21), @Duquense (+51), vs. Marshall (+18), @Rutgers (+17), @Seton Hall (+14)
Losses: vs. Arkansas (-11), @Notre Dame (-4), @Marquette (-28), @Cincinnati (-19), Pittsburgh (-21)
The game @Rutgers was the most efficient two-way offensive performance from any of the 100 or so teams I'm currently tracking. West Virginia scored 1.53 points per possession. Rutgers scored 1.36 points per possession.
Winning any one of their upcoming games against UCLA, @Georgetown, or @Pittsburgh should cement their place in the NCAA Tournament. On the flip side, losing to Seton Hall, @Providence, or against Cincinnati could really hurt their case.
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Villanova | 8-7 | 107 | 99 | +8 |
| vs. Big East | 4-5 | 103 | 103 | 0 |
Wins: vs. College of Charleston (+18), vs. Iowa (+46), @Stony Brook (+44), vs. Penn (+14), @Oklahoma (+20), @LaSalle (+23), @Georgetown (+6), @Providence (+17)
Losses: vs. Xavier (-7), Drexel (-5), @West Virginia (-15), DePaul (-10), @Syracuse (-20), @Notre Dame (-1), Pittsburgh (-10)
Also: Notre Dame (+22), Texas (+14)
I haven't decided if Villanova is a good argument for tracking at-risk profiles or just for listing the individual game results. Their win over Stony Brook is carrying too much weight in their at-risk efficiency margin but their home wins over Notre Dame and Texas aren't carrying any weight yet (and may never). A strong finish will likely make the Wildcats a deserving and popular NCAA Tournament dark horse.
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Marquette | 7-4 | 99 | 98 | +1 |
| vs. Big East | 8-2 | 105 | 97 | +5 |
Wins: vs. Texas Tech (+16), vs. Duke (+21), @Valparaiso (+4), @UConn (+8), @Louisville (+12), @Pittsburgh (+6), @South Florida (+2)
Losses: North Dakota State (-6), Wisconsin (-5), @Providence (-24), Syracuse (-21)
Also: West Virginia (+28)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Notre Dame | 3-5 | 106 | 106 | 0 |
| vs. Big East | 6-4 | 107 | 104 | +3 |
Wins: vs. Lafayette (+43), vs. Maryland (+9), @Syracuse (+19)
Losses: vs. Butler (-5), @Georgetown (-31), @Villanova (-22), @St. John's (-6), @South Florida (-9)
Also: Alabama (+15), West Virginia (+4)
Not realizing that marijuana possession was going to get Kyle McAlarney kicked out of school, yes, I did pick Notre Dame to win the Big East. Since he was and they won't, the relatively easy conference schedule which I thought would give them a leg up (I also seriously underestimated Pittsburgh) could instead hurt their NCAA Tournament chances.
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Syracuse | 3-8 | 100 | 102 | -2 |
| vs. Big East | 5-5 | 102 | 101 | +1 |
Wins: @Canisius (+20), @Marquette (+21), @Rutgers (+19)
Losses: Wichita State (-4), vs. Oklahoma State (-9), Drexel (-9), Pittsburgh (-11), @St. John's (-5), @Louisville (-7), Notre Dame (-21), @UConn (-14)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Louisville | 3-8 | 101 | 104 | -3 |
| vs. Big East | 6-4 | 107 | 100 | +7 |
Wins: @South Florida (+39), @DePaul (+13), @Cincinnati (+24)
Losses: vs. Dayton (-7), vs. Arizona (-12), UMass (-8), Kentucky (-21), @Notre Dame (-22), Marquette (-12), @Villanova (-8), Georgetown (-17)
It seems to me that Louisville needs a good win just to get on the bubble.
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| DePaul | 4-11 | 101 | 108 | -7 |
| vs. Big East | 4-6 | 99 | 103 | -4 |
Wins: Kansas (+11), @Villanova (+10), @Rhode Island (+16), @Rutgers (+43),
Losses: @Bradley (-31), @Northwestern (-21), vs. Kentucky (-6), vs. Purdue (-16), @UAB (0), @St. John's (-22), Pittsburgh (-17), Louisville (-13), @Georgetown (-32), @West Virginia (-21), @Syracuse (-13)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| UConn | 1-8 | 93 | 103 | -10 |
| vs. Big East | 4-6 | 97 | 96 | +1 |
Win: @St. John's (+15)
Losses: @West Virginia (-12), @LSU (-23), Marquette (-8), @Pittsburgh (-13), Indiana (-3), @Louisville (-20), Providence (-13), @DePaul (-8)
There are people who, as part of their jobs, voted this team into the top ten earlier this year. To me, that's far more wrong-headed than overrating Wichita State's early series of road wins. Wichita State's top ten ranking was based on misunderstanding tangible accomplishments.
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Seton Hall | 2-10 | 97 | 108 | -11 |
| vs. Big East | 3-6 | 100 | 109 | -9 |
Wins: @Morgan State (+26), vs. Liberty (+5)
Losses: Farleigh Dickinson (-8), vs. Virginia Tech (-24), vs. Oral Roberts (+1), @BYU (-14), @Providence (-33), @Notre Dame (-18), Georgetown (-24), @Marquette (-19), @Rutgers (-8), West Virginia (-14)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| USF | 3-12 | 93 | 104 | -11 |
| vs. Big East | 3-7 | 94 | 105 | -11 |
Wins: @Winston-Salem State (+30), @East Carolina (+20), vs. Norfolk State (+43)
Losses: Richmond (-14), vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (-9), @UNLV (-20), Missouri State (-17), @UAB (-20), @UConn (-32), @Pittsburgh (-33), Louisville (-39), @West Virginia (-22), @Notre Dame (-34), Marquette (-2), @St. John's (-14)
Also: Notre Dame (+9)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Providence | 2-7 | 94 | 107 | -13 |
| vs. Big East | 5-4 | 107 | 103 | +4 |
Wins: Marquette (+24), @UConn (+13)
Losses: Brown (-15), @Florida (-28), @Florida State (-43), @Louisville (-27), @Seton Hall (-3), Villanova (-17), @Marquette (-13)
Also: Boston College (+15)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Cincinnati | 1-13 | 97 | 114 | -17 |
| vs. Big East | 1-8 | 100 | 113 | -13 |
Win: vs. Temple (+7)
Losses: Wofford (-1), UAB (-6), vs. Ohio State (-32), vs. Ohio (-19), @Memphis (-53), Rutgers (-23), @USF (-21), @Syracuse (0), Pittsburgh (-31), @Georgetown (-30), Louisville (-24), St. John's (-10), @Providence (-4)
Also: Xavier (+18), West Virginia (+19)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| St. John's | 2-10 | 93 | 112 | -19 |
| vs. Big East | 5-6 | 93 | 105 | -12 |
Wins: @Niagara (+33), @Cincinnati (+10)
Losses: Maryland (-41), Texas (-3), Illinois State (-20), Hofstra (-23), @West Virginia (-44), @Seton Hall (-26), UConn (-15), @DePaul (-16), @Pittsburgh (-42), Georgetown (-43)
Also: Notre Dame (+6)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Rutgers | 2-15 | 90 | 112 | -22 |
| vs. Big East | 2-9 | 92 | 110 | -18 |
Wins: @Princeton (+14), @Cincinnati (+23)
Losses: Kansas State (-22), Jackson State (-7), vs. Bradley (-36), vs. Miami, OH (-22), @Temple (-39), @North Carolina (-60), @Seton Hall (-6), Syracuse (-19), DePaul (-43), Georgetown (-25), @Providence (-19), @South Florida (-40), West Virginia (-17), @UConn (-23), @Marquette (-36)
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