| Team | Eff Margin | Record |
| Kansas | +19 | 7-2 |
| Texas A&M | +16 | 8-1 |
| Oklahoma | +11 | 5-4 |
| Texas | +8 | 6-3 |
| Kansas St | +3 | 6-3 |
| Missouri | +1 | 3-6 |
| Texas Tech | -2 | 4-5 |
| Nebraska | -4 | 3-5 |
| Oklahoma St | -8 | 4-4 |
| Iowa St | -9 | 3-6 |
| Baylor | -16 | 2-7 |
| Colorado | -19 | 2-7 |
Disclaimer: Obviously, all at-risk games (all losses plus road/neutral wins plus home wins against NCAA Tournament teams) are not created equally so I'll provide more information than just the numbers. I am listing teams in order of efficiency margin (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) simply as an organizational choice. These are not rankings.
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Texas A&M | 5-3 | 110 | 98 | +12 |
| vs. Big 12 | 8-1 | 111 | 95 | +16 |
Wins: @Auburn (+42), Winthrop (+36), @Baylor (+19), @Colorado (+24), @Kansas (0)
Losses: @LSU (-21), vs. UCLA (-5), @Texas Tech (-6)
Also: Oklahoma State (+26), Texas (+25)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Kansas | 7-4 | 104 | 94 | +10 |
| vs. Big 12 | 7-2 | 111 | 92 | +19 |
Wins: vs. Ball State (+25), vs. Florida (+7), vs. Toledo (+16), @South Carolina (+25), @Iowa State (+2), @Baylor (+36), @Nebraska (+30)
Losses: Oral Roberts (-14), @DePaul (-11), @Texas Tech (-9), Texas A&M (0)
Also: USC (+14), Boston College (+25), Oklahoma State (+38)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Texas | 5-7 | 110 | 111 | -1 |
| vs. Big 12 | 6-3 | 119 | 111 | +8 |
Wins: @St. John's (+3), vs. LSU (+2), @Colorado (+31), @Nebraska (-3), @Texas Tech (+19)
Losses: vs. Michigan State (-5), vs. Gonzaga (-11), @Tennessee (-3), @Oklahoma State (-5), @Villanova (-14), Kansas State (-4), @Texas A&M (-25)
The defense hasn't gotten any better and the team hasn't gotten any better.
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Texas Tech | 7-9 | 104 | 106 | -2 |
| vs. Big 12 | 4-5 | 103 | 105 | -2 |
Wins: @UTEP (+21), @TCU (+11), @Louisiana Tech (+17), vs. Arkansas (+25), @Kansas State (+19), Kansas (+9), Texas A&M (+6)
Losses: vs. Marquette (-16), vs. Air Force (-27), @Stanford (-13), UNLV (-10), @Baylor (-3), @Missouri (-21), Texas (-19), @Oklahoma (-26), Nebraska (-4)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Nebraska | 5-8 | 103 | 106 | -3 |
| vs. Big 12 | 3-5 | 100 | 104 | -4 |
Wins: vs. Wyoming (+22), vs. Houston (+19), @Miami, FL (+25), @Missouri (+16), @Texas Tech (+4)
Losses: @Rutgers (-7), vs. Oregon (-26), @Hawaii (-11), @Iowa State (-15), @Oklahoma (-26), Texas (+3), @Kansas State (-21), Kansas (-30)
Also: Creighton (+17)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Kansas St | 7-7 | 100 | 104 | -4 |
| vs. Big 12 | 6-3 | 108 | 105 | +3 |
Wins: @Rutgers (+22), @North Dakota State (+3), vs. USC (+20), vs. New Mexico (+24), @Missouri (+9), @Iowa State (+15), @Texas (+4)
Losses: @New Mexico (-31), @California (-43), @Colorado State (-7), @Xavier (-14), @Texas A&M (-5), Texas Tech (-19), @Kansas (-35)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Missouri | 2-8 | 102 | 106 | -4 |
| vs. Big 12 | 3-6 | 105 | 104 | +1 |
Wins: @Colorado (+23), @Iowa State (+34)
Losses: @Purdue (-23), vs. Illinois (-4), Iowa State (+2), @Texas (-33), Kansas State (-9), @Kansas (-6), @Kansas State (-12), Nebraska (-16)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Oklahoma St | 5-5 | 99 | 105 | -6 |
| vs. Big 12 | 4-4 | 98 | 106 | -8 |
Wins: vs. Auburn (+2), vs. Missouri State (+6), vs. Syracuse (+4), vs. Ball State (+33), vs. Pittsburgh (+4)
Losses: vs. Tennessee (-5), @Kansas (-38), @Texas A&M (-26), @Colorado (-21), @Oklahoma (-14)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Oklahoma | 1-8 | 92 | 105 | -13 |
| vs. Big 12 | 5-4 | 110 | 99 | +11 |
Wins: @Tulsa (+15)
Losses: vs. Memphis (-20), vs. Purdue (-5), Villanova (-20), @Alabama (-24), @Texas Tech (-21), @Texas (-14), @Oklahoma State (-9), @Texas A&M (-17)
Also: Oklahoma State (+14)
The Sooners are ranked 13th in the nation at kenpom.com as of today. All of their losses have come against respectable teams but their best win is either Oklahoma State at home or @Tulsa. So here we are, 21 games into the season and their at-risk profile is worse than Nebraska's or Missouri's yet, if Mr. Pomeroy's method is correct, they could make the NCAA Tournament with the expectation of doing well therein. This, to me, is the possible value of ignoring (in one method) the degree to which teams beat the teams they're supposed to beat.
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Iowa St | 2-11 | 91 | 107 | -16 |
| vs. Big 12 | 3-6 | 93 | 102 | -9 |
Wins: @Minnesota (+5), @Missouri (-2)
Losses: @Northern Iowa (-19), Drake (-1), @Iowa (-27), vs. Bradley (-12), @Ohio State (-33), Kansas (-2), @Colorado (-10), Kansas State (-15), @Oklahoma State (-21), @Texas A&M (-34), Missouri (-34)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Baylor | 1-10 | 95 | 115 | -20 |
| vs. Big 12 | 2-7 | 100 | 116 | -16 |
Win: vs. Colorado State (+6)
Losses: @Gonzaga (-16), South Carolina (-4), @Syracuse (-31), @Oklahoma State (-7), Texas A&M (-19), @Kansas State (-17), @Oklahoma (-58), Kansas (-36), @Texas (-9), @Iowa State (-19)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Colorado | 1-13 | 89 | 114 | -25 |
| vs. Big 12 | 2-7 | 95 | 114 | -19 |
Win: @Utah (0)
Losses: @New Mexico (-55), Air Force (-57), Wyoming (-4), @UNC-Wilmington (-14), Pepperdine (-10), Colorado State (-8), Texas (-32), @Oklahoma (-36), Texas A&M (-24), @Nebraska (-36), Missouri (-23), @Kansas (-29), @Baylor (-15)
Also: Oklahoma State (+21)
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