Performance in At-risk Games: ACC through 2/7/07

Team	Eff Margin	Record
North Carolina	+20	7-2
Duke	+9	5-5
Boston College	+8	8-2
Virginia	+8	8-2
Florida St	+2	5-5
Virginia Tech	0	6-3
Clemson	0	5-5
Georgia Tech	-3	4-6
Maryland	-4	3-6
NC State	-9	3-6
Wake Forest	-12	2-8
Miami, FL	-18	2-8

Disclaimer: Obviously, all at-risk games (all losses plus road/neutral wins plus home wins against NCAA Tournament teams) are not created equally so I'll provide more information than just the numbers. I am listing teams in order of efficiency margin (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) simply as an organizational choice. These are not rankings.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
North Carolina	9-3	110	96	+14
vs. ACC	7-2	112	92	+20

Wins: vs. Winthrop (+13), vs. Tennessee (+12), Ohio State (+17), Kentucky (+18), @St. Louis (+35), @Clemson (+27), @Wake Forest (+35), @Arizona (+30), @Duke (+14)

Losses: vs. Gonzaga (-10), @Virginia Tech (-12), @NC State (-5)

Also: Penn (+47), Virginia (+15)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Clemson	7-5	106	99	+7
vs. ACC	5-5	105	105	0

Wins: vs. Arkansas State (+50), vs. Monmouth (+13), at Old Dominion (+5), @Minnesota (+30), @South Carolina (+29), @Florida State (+4), @NC State (+21)

Losses: @Maryland (-10), North Carolina (-27), @Duke (-5), Virginia (-1), @Georgia Tech (-27)

Also: Boston College (+32)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Duke	7-6	104	98	+6
vs. ACC	5-5	105	96	+9

Wins: vs. Air Force (+25), Indiana (+6), Georgetown (+14), vs. Gonzaga (+20), @Miami, FL (+36), @NC State (+34), Clemson (+5)

Losses: vs. Marquette (-21), Virginia Tech (-8), @Georgia Tech (-14), @Virginia (-2), Florida State (-2), North Carolina (-14)

Also: Boston College (+20)

They're the (distant) second-best team in the ACC, which tells you all you need to know about the strength of the ACC this year.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Virginia Tech	7-7	107	103	+4
vs. ACC	6-3	108	108	0

Wins: vs. Montana (+33), vs. Seton Hall (+24), @Duke (+8), @UNC-Greensboro (+34), North Carolina (+12), @Miami, FL (+13), @Georgia Tech (+17)

Losses: vs. Western Michigan (-7), vs. Southern Illinois (-7), @George Washington (-5), @Marshall (-6), @Florida State (-14), NC State (-17), @Boston College (-31)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Virginia	6-6	108	108	0
vs. ACC	8-2	107	99	+8

Wins: Arizona (+11), Gonzaga (+32), @NC State (+22), @Clemson (+1), Duke (+2), @Maryland (+4)

Losses: @Purdue (-1), vs. Appalachian State (-18), vs. Utah (-33), Stanford (-1), @UNC (-15), @Boston College (-8)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Florida St	5-7	107	107	0
vs. ACC	5-5	113	111	+2

Wins: Florida (+3), @Stetson (+26), @Georgia State (+38), vs. Providence (+41), @Duke (+2)

Losses: @Pittsburgh (-31), @Wisconsin (-20), Clemson (-4), @North Carolina (-33), @Georgia Tech (-10), @Boston College (+3), @Clemson (-16)

Also: Virginia Tech (+14)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Maryland	6-7	101	101	0
vs. ACC	3-6	101	105	-4

Wins: @St. John's (+41), vs. Michigan State (+4), Winthrop (+13), @Illinois (+7), Clemson (+10), @Wake Forest (+12)

Losses: vs. Notre Dame (-9), @Boston College (-20), Miami, FL (-12), @Virginia (-20), @Virginia Tech (-5), @Florida State (-23), Virginia (-4)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Georgia Tech	4-8	105	109	-4
vs. ACC	4-6	107	110	-3

Wins: vs. Purdue (+25), vs. Memphis (+9), Duke (+14), Clemson (+27)

Losses: vs. UCLA (-26), @Miami, FL (-10), @Vanderbilt (-16), @Clemson (+1), @North Carolina (-22), @Maryland (-23), Virginia Tech (-21), @Wake Forest (-16)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Boston College	4-6	105	111	-6
vs. ACC	8-2	115	107	+8

Wins: @UMass (+15), @NC State (+18), @Wake Forest (+16), @Miami, FL (+11)

Losses: Vermont (-23), @Providence (-15), @Kansas (-25), Duquense (-4), @Clemson (-32), @Duke (-20)

Also: Michigan State (+12), Virginia (+8), Virginia Tech (+31)

The Michigan State game is included as they are coming up on four straight home games which should give us a better idea of their tournament prospects. Placing the Virginia and Virginia Tech home wins in the "Also" category is simply conservatism.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
NC State	3-9	100	110	-10
vs. ACC	3-6	101	110	-9

Wins: @Wake Forest (+16), @Virginia Tech (+17), North Carolina (+5)

Losses: @Virginia (-9), vs. West Virginia (-21), Alabama (-10), @Cincinnati (-14), Boston College (-18), Clemson (-21), Duke (-34), Virginia (-22), @Georgia Tech (-15)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Wake Forest	2-12	95	111	-17
vs. ACC	2-8	105	123	-18

Wins: @Bucknell (+6), @Miami, FL (+2)

Losses: vs. Wake Forest (-57), Georgia (+4), @DePaul (-22), @Virginia Tech (0), @South Florida (-16), Boston College (-16), @Duke (-33), @Virginia (-18), North Carolina (-35), @Florida State (-6), Maryland (-8)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Miami, FL	3-15	101	118	-17
vs. ACC	2-8	105	123	-18

Wins: @Evansville (+11), @UMass (+3), @Maryland (+12)

Losses: vs. Buffalo (-5), vs. Cleveland State (-27), @Northwestern (-13), Mississippi State (-25), Binghamton (-10), @Louisville (-32), vs. Nebraska (-25), Wake Forest (-2), Duke (-36), @Boston College (-33), @Florida State (-32), Virginia Tech (-13), @North Carolina (-49), @Virginia (-24), Boston College (-9)