Friday, January 26, 2007

Performance in At-risk Games: SEC through 1/25/07

Standings by average efficiency margin
SEC WestEff MarginRecord
Arkansas+72-4
Mississippi St+22-3
Auburn-33-3
Ole Miss-72-4
LSU-112-3
Alabama-152-3


SEC EastEff MarginRecord
Florida+225-0
Kentucky+174-2
Vanderbilt+74-2
Georgia+64-2
Tennessee-12-3
South Carolina-301-4

Disclaimer: Obviously, all at-risk games (all losses plus road/neutral wins plus home wins against NCAA Tournament teams) are not created equally so I'll provide more information than just the numbers. I am listing teams in order of efficiency margin (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) simply as an organizational choice. These are not rankings.

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Florida6-211898+20
vs. SEC5-011593+22

Wins: vs. Western Kentucky (+40), vs. Florida A&M (+21), Ohio State (+40), vs. UAB (+6), @South Carolina (+53), @Mississippi State (+8)

Losses: vs. Kansas (-7), @Florida State (-3)

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Kentucky5-510699+7
vs. SEC4-211194+15

Wins: vs. DePaul (+6), vs. Chattanooga (+25), @Louisville (+21), @Ole Miss (+20), @South Carolina (+60)

Losses: vs. UCLA (-5), vs. Memphis (-18), @North Carolina (-18), Vanderbilt (-10), @Georgia (-10)

Also: Indiana (+8)

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Tennessee5-699990
vs. SEC2-3107108-1

Wins: vs. Fordham (+12), vs. UNC-Wilmington (+16), @Louisiana-Lafayette (+10), Memphis (+26), vs. Oklahoma State (+5)

Losses: vs. Butler (-18), vs. North Carolina (-15), @Vanderbilt (-3), @Ohio State (-4), @Auburn (-2), @Ole Miss (-19)

Also: Texas (+3)

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Mississippi St2-71021020
vs. SEC2-3108102+6

Wins: @Miami, FL (+25), vs. New Orleans (+43)

Losses: Winthrop (-18), @Clemson (-5), @George Mason (-9), @Missouri (-9), @Tennessee (-5), @Kentucky (-6), Florida (-8)

Mississippi State continues to be competitive but not quite good enough which may be enough to give them a leg up in the SEC West race.

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Vanderbilt4-6103104-1
vs. SEC4-2112105+7

Wins: vs. Tennessee Tech (+16), @Rice (+10), @Kentucky (+10), @LSU (+24)

Losses: Georgetown (-19), @Wake Forest (-12), Furman (-13), vs. Appalachian State (-13), @Auburn (-2), @Georgia (-19)

Also: Georgia Tech (+16), Tennessee (+3)

Texas Tech beat two better teams than Kentucky and LSU but they did so at home and by narrower margins than Vanderbilt did in Lexington and Baton Rouge. I'd say the Commodores did more for their NCAA Tournament chances than anyone in the country last week.

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Alabama5-4103108-5
vs. SEC2-3102117-15

Wins: vs. Middle Tennessee State (+15), vs. Iowa (+16), vs. Xavier (+15), vs. Southern Miss (+16), @NC State (+10)

Losses: @Notre Dame (-15), @Arkansas (-34), @Vanderbilt (-27), @Auburn (-34)

Also: LSU (+15), Georgia (+5)

The willingness of the SEC officials to overlook two distinct instances of Ronald Steele traveling on the final play of the Georgia/Alabama game didn't necessarily turn a loss into a win but it does demonstrate the elaborate machinations necessary for Alabama to win a basketball game at this point in time.

The Crimson Tide have been awful in conference play and don't have a win on which to build the foundation of their NCAA Tournament resume. Their increasing inability to stop opponents from scoring doesn't really suggest that they are especially likely to finish SEC play better than 8-8.

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Arkansas3-798104-6
vs. SEC2-410497+7

Wins: vs. Southern Illinois (+13), vs. Marist (+11), vs. West Virginia (+11)

Losses: @Missouri (-31), vs. Texas Tech (-25), @Texas (-10), @Florida (-12), @Ole Miss (-3), Georgia (-2), @South Carolina (-10)

Also: Alabama (+34), LSU (+35)

The Razorbacks are going a long way toward knocking Alabama and LSU out of the NCAA Tournament without making any progress on getting themselves in.

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Ole Miss3-7101107-6
vs. SEC2-499106-7

Wins: vs. Fairfield (+8), vs. Central Arkansas (+26), @South Alabama (+15)

Losses: @UConn (-28), @Memphis (-19), @Saint Louis (-5), Kentucky (-20), @Mississippi State (-12), @LSU (-15), @Florida (-16)

Also: Tennessee (+19)

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
LSU3-694101-7
vs. SEC2-391102-11

Wins: @Tulane (+8), Texas A&M (+21), @Oregon State (+11)

Losses: Wichita State (-9), vs. Texas (-2), @Washington (-26), @Alabama (-15), @Arkansas (-35), Vanderbilt (-24)

The losses @Arkansas and against Vanderbilt showed how hopeless LSU is if they don't get their usual good-to-outstanding defensive performance. Their best offensive performance in an SEC game was 1.03 points per possession at home against Auburn.

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Georgia3-697105-8
vs. SEC4-2109103+6

Wins: @Wake Forest (-4), vs. Gonzaga (+13), @Arkansas (+2)

Losses: Western Kentucky (-6), @Georgia Tech (-12), @Clemson (-22), Wisconsin (-17), @Florida (-24), @Alabama (-5)

Also: Kentucky (+10)

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Auburn0-890107-17
vs. SEC3-3100103-3

Losses: vs. Oklahoma State (-2), vs. Wisconsin (-20), Pittsburgh (-15), Texas A&M (-42), @Southern Miss (-5), @Kentucky (-34), @LSU (-5), @Mississippi State (-15)

Also: Tennessee (+2), Alabama (+34)

Auburn sits atop the SEC West standings without a single at-risk win (though that could change). Assuming Tennessee and Alabama both make the NCAA Tournament and thus get added to Auburn's at-risk profile, that would only boost the Tigers' record to 2-8 and their average efficiency margin to -10. Auburn did play a good non-conference schedule but they didn't beat any of those teams and are the rare team that failed to score easily against either Oklahoma State or Pittsburgh.

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
South Carolina3-795115-20
vs. SEC1-490120-30

Wins: @USC (+6), @The Citadel (+30), @Baylor (+4)

Losses: @UC-Irvine (-25), Clemson (-29), Kansas (-25), @Georgia (-38), Florida (-53), Kentucky (-60), @Tennessee (-10)

South Carolina won a game this week and barely lost another. It was enough to shave 40% off their average efficiency margin in conference play, but -30 still stands as the worst margin in any of the six major conferences.

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