| SEC West | Eff Margin | Record |
| Arkansas | +6 | 1-2 |
| Mississippi St | 0 | 1-2 |
| LSU | -5 | 1-1 |
| Alabama | -10 | 1-1 |
| Ole Miss | -10 | 1-2 |
| Auburn | -12 | 1-2 |
| SEC East | Eff Margin | Record |
| Florida | +30 | 3-0 |
| Kentucky | +30 | 3-0 |
| Georgia | +12 | 2-1 |
| Tennessee | +1 | 1-1 |
| Vanderbilt | -6 | 1-2 |
| South Carolina | -50 | 0-3 |
Disclaimer: Obviously, all at-risk games (all losses plus road/neutral wins plus home wins against NCAA Tournament teams) are not created equally so I'll provide more information than just the numbers. I am listing teams in order of efficiency margin (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) simply as an organizational choice. These are not rankings.
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Florida | 5-2 | 119 | 98 | +21 |
| vs. SEC | 3-0 | 117 | 87 | +30 |
Wins: vs. Western Kentucky (+40), vs. Florida A&M (+21), Ohio State (+40), vs. UAB (+6), @South Carolina (+53)
Losses: vs. Kansas (-7), @Florida State (-3)
This is the best team in the country.
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Kentucky | 5-3 | 108 | 97 | +11 |
| vs. SEC | 4-0 | 116 | 86 | +30 |
Wins: vs. DePaul (+6), vs. Chattanooga (+25), @Louisville (+21), @Ole Miss (+20), @South Carolina (+60)
Losses: vs. UCLA (-5), vs. Memphis (-18), @North Carolina (-18)
Also: Indiana (+8)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Alabama | 6-2 | 105 | 101 | +4 |
| vs. SEC | 1-1 | 94 | 104 | -10 |
Wins: vs. Middle Tennessee State (+15), vs. Iowa (+16), vs. Xavier (+15), vs. Southern Miss (+16), @NC State (+10), LSU (+15)
Loss: @Notre Dame (-15), @Arkansas (-34)
Including the home win over LSU is a borderline decision based on the expectation that the Tigers beat up sufficiently on the bottom half of the SEC West to secure an NCAA Tournament bid.
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Tennessee | 5-4 | 100 | 96 | +4 |
| vs. SEC | 1-1 | 117 | 116 | +1 |
Wins: vs. Fordham (+12), vs. UNC-Wilmington (+16), @Louisiana-Lafayette (+10), Memphis (+26), vs. Oklahoma State (+5)
Losses: vs. Butler (-18), vs. North Carolina (-15), @Vanderbilt (-3), @Ohio State (-4)
Also: Texas (+3)
Tennessee's difficulty scoring in the non-conference portion of their schedule had been masked by the high pace at which they typically play their games. They didn't experience much defensive resistance from either Mississippi State or Vanderbilt (nor did they in their non-conference win over Texas), but struggled again to score in their narrow loss at Ohio State.
They arrive in spectacularly different ways, but I'm not sure there's much difference between the ultimate destination reached by Tennessee and LSU: losing because they can't score often enough.
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Mississippi St | 2-6 | 103 | 101 | +2 |
| vs. SEC | 1-2 | 108 | 108 | 0 |
Wins: @Miami, FL (+25), vs. New Orleans (+43)
Losses: Winthrop (-18), @Clemson (-5), @George Mason (-9), @Missouri (-9), @Tennessee (-5), @Kentucky (-6)
All those close losses on the road hide a team as close to "not bad" as they are to "mediocre." I wouldn't be at all surprised were they to beat at least one of Alabama, LSU, or Florida in Starkville.
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Arkansas | 4-5 | 101 | 102 | -1 |
| vs. SEC | 1-2 | 106 | 100 | +6 |
Wins: vs. Southern Illinois (+13), vs. Marist (+11), vs. West Virginia (+11), Alabama (+34)
Losses: @Missouri (-31), vs. Texas Tech (-25), @Texas (-10), @Florida (-12), @Ole Miss (-3)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| LSU | 3-4 | 97 | 98 | -1 |
| vs. SEC | 1-1 | 95 | 100 | -5 |
Win: @Tulane (+8), Texas A&M (+21), @Oregon State (+11)
Losses: Wichita State (-9), vs. Texas (-2), @Washington (-26), @Alabama (-15)
Also: UConn (+23)
LSU just doesn't shoot well enough to be very good. They're 51.4 eFG% in all games but that falls to 43.6 eFG% in at-risk games. The win over Texas A&M is still impressive, but the loss at Washington looks worse and worse with each passing Huskie game, and the win over UConn doesn't count for much either right now.
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Ole Miss | 3-5 | 102 | 107 | -5 |
| vs. SEC | 1-2 | 98 | 108 | -10 |
Wins: vs. Fairfield (+8), vs. Central Arkansas (+26), @South Alabama (+15)
Losses: @UConn (-28), @Memphis (-19), @Saint Louis (-5), Kentucky (-20), @Mississippi State (-12)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Vanderbilt | 2-6 | 100 | 107 | -7 |
| vs. SEC | 1-2 | 105 | 111 | -6 |
Wins: vs. Tennessee Tech (+16), @Rice (+10)
Losses: Georgetown (-19), @Wake Forest (-12), Furman (-13), vs. Appalachian State (-13), @Auburn (-2), @Georgia (-19)
Also: Georgia Tech (+16), Tennessee (+3)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Georgia | 2-5 | 93 | 103 | -10 |
| vs. SEC | 2-1 | 108 | 96 | +12 |
Wins: @Wake Forest (-4), vs. Gonzaga (+13)
Losses: Western Kentucky (-6), @Georgia Tech (-12), @Clemson (-22), Wisconsin (-17), @Florida (-24)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Auburn | 0-7 | 89 | 106 | -17 |
| vs. SEC | 1-2 | 94 | 106 | -12 |
Losses: vs. Oklahoma State (-2), vs. Wisconsin (-20), Pittsburgh (-15), Texas A&M (-42), @Southern Miss (-5), @Kentucky (-34), @LSU (-5)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| South Carolina | 3-6 | 95 | 116 | -21 |
| vs. SEC | 0-3 | 84 | 134 | -50 |
Wins: @USC (+6), @The Citadel (+30), @Baylor (+4)
Losses: @UC-Irvine (-25), Clemson (-29), Kansas (-25), @Georgia (-38), Florida (-53), Kentucky (-60)
South Carolina played Kansas pretty tough for 35 minutes ten days ago but appeared to run out of gas and made no last-ditch effort to combat a team notorious for poor end-of-game decision making and Kansas cruised to an easy victory. The Gamecocks have been progressively worse in each game since, failing to top 0.87 points per possession or hold opponents below 1.25 points per possession in any of their three SEC games. There is something seriously wrong with this team that appeared to be, for the season's first 13 games) a rather non-descript mediocrity.
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