Performance in At-risk Games: Pac-10 through 1/30/07

Conference standings by average efficiency margin

Team	Eff Margin	Record
Washington St	+15	6-3
USC	+10	6-3
Arizona	+9	5-4
UCLA	+8	7-2
Stanford	+4	6-3
Oregon	+3	7-2
Washington	-5	3-6
Cal	-7	4-5
Arizona St	-19	0-9
Oregon St	-20	1-8

The Oregon Ducks, ninth in both polls, yet sixth in the Pac-10 in average efficiency margin. They'll do well to play out the string at .500 or better.

Disclaimer: Obviously, all at-risk games (all losses plus road/neutral wins plus home wins against NCAA Tournament teams) are not created equally so I'll provide more information than just the numbers. I am listing teams in order of efficiency margin (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) simply as an organizational choice. These are not rankings.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Washington St	10-4	107	97	+10
vs. Pac-10	6-3	110	95	+15

Wins: vs. UAB (+18), @UW-Milwaukee (+35), vs. Radford (+27), vs. Boise State (+3), Gonzaga (+14), @Idaho (+18), vs. San Diego State (+20), @USC (+5), Arizona (+7), @Cal (+27)

Losses: @Utah (-22), @UCLA (-5), @Stanford (-4), Oregon (-3)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
UCLA	8-2	107	99	+8
vs. Pac-10	7-2	107	99	+8

Wins: vs.Kentucky (+5), vs. Georgia Tech (+26), vs. Texas A&M (+5), Washington State (+5), @Oregon State (+23), @USC (-2), Arizona (+8), @Cal (+28)

Losses: @Oregon (-4), @Stanford (-12)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Oregon	8-2	109	104	+5
vs. Pac-10	7-2	115	112	+3

Wins: @Rice (+8), @Georgetown (+10), vs. Nebraska (+26), @Oregon State (+4), UCLA (+4), @Arizona State (+5), @Arizona (+7), @Washington State (+3)

Losses: USC (+1), @Washington (-20)

Oregon's defense has reverted to form. They entered Pac-10 play alowing 0.83 points per possession. Stanford's the only Pac-10 team the Ducks have held under a point per possession (0.95). USC, Arizona, Cal, and Washington all scored at least 1.15 points per possession.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
USC	6-6	101	98	+3
vs. Pac-10	6-3	107	97	+10

Wins: vs. George Washington (+16), vs. Wichita State (+1), @Oregon (-1), @Oregon State (+66), Arizona (+12), @Cal (+9)

Losses: South Carolina (-6), @Kansas (-14), vs. Kansas State (-20), Washington State (-5), UCLA (+2), @Stanford (-22)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Arizona	5-6	108	107	+1
vs. Pac-10	5-4	118	109	+9

Wins: vs. Illinois (+14), vs. Louisville (+12), @San Diego State (+34), Memphis (+13), @Washington (+8)

Losses: @Virginia (-11), @Washington State (-7), Oregon (-7), @USC (-12), @UCLA (-8), North Carolina (-30)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Stanford	7-5	101	106	-5
vs. Pac-10	6-3	107	103	+4

Wins: vs. Texas Tech (+13), @Fresno State (+4), @Arizona State (+15), @Virginia (+1), Washington State (+4), @Oregon State (+18), UCLA (+12)

Losses: Air Force (-63), Santa Clara (-24), @Arizona (-23), California (-2), @Oregon (-18)

Also: USC (+22)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Cal	6-9	106	114	-8
vs. Pac-10	4-5	108	115	-7

Wins: vs. Marshall (+6), vs. Hawaii (+23), vs. Loyola Marymount (+8), @Arizona State (+2), @Stanford (+2), @Oregon State (+11)

Losses: @San Diego State (-11), vs. Nevada (-11), San Diego (-10), @DePaul (-45), @Arizona (-12), Washington State (-27), @Oregon (-12), UCLA (-28), USC (-9)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Washington	1-7	105	119	-14
vs. Pac-10	3-6	108	113	-5

Win: Oregon (+20)

Losses: @Gonzaga (-30), @USC (-13), @UCLA (-28), Arizona (-8), @Stanford (-7), @Cal (-9), @Washington State (-41)

Also: LSU (+26)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Arizona St	0-14	96	112	-16
vs. Pac-10	0-9	95	114	-19

Losses: Northern Arizona (-8), Portland State (-6), @Minnesota (-3), @Xavier (-27), Davidson (-8), Stanford (-15), Cal (-2), @Washington State (-34), @Washington (-23), Oregon (-5), Oregon State (-14), @UCLA (-19), @USC (-19), @Arizona (-42)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Oregon St	3-13	93	112	-19
vs. Pac-10	1-8	98	118	-20

Wins: @Northern Colorado (-4), @Montana State (+13), @Arizona State (-14)

Losses: SE Louisiana (-5), Nevada (-43), @Hawaii (-57), Fresno State (-8), LSU (-11), Oregon (-4), UCLA (-23), USC (-66), @Arizona (-21), Cal (-11), Stanford (-16), @Washington State (-32), @ Washington (-23)