Performance in At-risk Games: National Overview through 1/22/07

Let's spend some time with our one-bid friends...

Disclaimer: Obviously, all at-risk games (all losses plus road/neutral wins plus home wins against NCAA Tournament teams) are not created equally so I'll provide more information than just the numbers. I am listing teams in order of efficiency margin (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) simply as an organizational choice. These are not rankings.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Air Force	9-2	124	99	+25
vs. MWC	5-1	112	104	+8

Wins: vs. Long Beach State (+5), @Stanford (+63), @Colorado (+57), vs. Texas Tech (+27), vs. Wake Forest (+57), vs. George Washington (+24), @Santa Clara (+58), @Colorado State (+15), @Wyoming (+5)
Losses: vs. Duke (-25), @Utah (-8)

MWC opponents have slowed the Air Force offense suggesting that the Falcons are probably not the Top Ten team I hypothesized them to be a couple of weeks ago.

I am still waiting for someone to beat Stanford, Colorado, or Wake Forest as badly as did Air Force.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Butler	8-2	105	93	+12
vs. Horizon	5-1	119	94	+25

Wins: @Tulane (+70), vs. Notre Dame (+3), vs. Indiana (+8), vs. Tennessee (+17), vs. Gonzaga (+16), @ Valparaiso (+20), vs. Purdue (+5), @UW-Milwaukee (+5)
Losses: @Indiana State (-13), @Illinois-Chicago (-14)

Butler hasn't played any at-risk games since the last national update, but they have continued to hammer their conference opponents. They're the early co-favorites (with Memphis) to lead the nation in average efficiency margin in conference play.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Nevada	8-2	110	101	+9
vs. WAC	5-1	116	104	+12

Wins: @Oregon State (+43), @Santa Clara (+16), @Louisiana-Lafayette (+17), vs. California (+11), @Akron (+7), vs. Gonzaga (+12), @San Jose State (+17), @Hawaii (+2)
Losses: UNLV (-15), @New Mexico State (-12)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Memphis	5-3	103	97	+6
vs. C-USA	5-0	113	88	+25

Wins: Oklahoma (+20), Kentucky (+18), @Houston (+15), @Southern Miss (+21), @East Carolina (+26)
Losses: vs. Georgia Tech (-9), @Tennessee (-26), @Arizona (-13)

The Tigers only managed 89 points per 100 possessions in their win at East Carolina. The weakness of the rest of their conference likely won't tell us where exactly they sit on the spectrum of teams who can defend but can't score consistently enough to be expecetd to reach the Final Four.

Kansas and Duke would sit on the high end, UConn would rest near the bottom, and LSU, Tennessee, and Oklahoma would all fall somewhere on the cusp of making the NCAA Tournament.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Gonzaga	4-7	108	114	-6
vs. WCC	4-1	115	95	+20

Wins: vs. UNC (+10), vs. Texas (+11), @Santa Clara (+13), @Portland (+21)
Losses: vs. Butler (-17), @Washington State (-14), vs. Georgia (-13), vs. Duke (-19), vs. Nevada (-12), @Virginia (-32), @St. Mary's (-7)

Gonzaga is tied atop the WCC with Santa Clara and St. Mary's through five games but have already played both on the road. Should the WCC regular season title race remain close, I'll add Santa Clara (best win: @Stanford, +24) and/or St. Mary's (best win: Gonzaga, +7).