Performance in At-risk games: National Overview through 1/3/07

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Air Force	8-1	126	95	+31

Wins: vs. Long Beach State (+5), @Stanford (+63), @Colorado (+57), vs. Texas Tech (+27), vs. Wake Forest (+57), vs. George Washington (+24), @Santa Clara (+58), @Colorado State (+15)
Loss: vs. Duke (-25)

I'm starting to believe that this is one of the ten best teams in college basketball. The loss to Duke may be more a function of Duke being better defensively than I realized at the time and Mike Krzyzewski's understanding of the value of the three-point shot. Air Force will probably struggle to beat the best defensive teams in the country, especially those that take advantage of offensive rebounding opportunities, but the margin of their victories away from home (even taking into account the quality of opposition) is staggeringly impressive.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
West Virginia	5-1	118	95	+23

Wins: vs. Montana (+29), vs. Western Michigan (+35), vs. NC State (+21), @Duquense (+51), UConn (+12)
Loss: vs. Arkansas (-11)

Both their Big East games have been played in Morgantown but they've been against two of the better teams in the league, UConn and Villanova. West Virginia is +14 per 100 possessions over those two games. I'd let John Beilein coach my team.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Clemson	6-0	110	88	+22

Wins: vs. Arkansas State (+50), vs. Monmouth (+13), at Old Dominion (+5), @Minnesota (+30), @South Carolina (+29), @Florida State (+4)

Clemson is probably going to struggle to score at times in ACC play, but they've got a conference road win in the bank already and will should only have to split their remaining games to make the NCAA Tournament.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Florida	4-2	116	100	+16

Wins: vs. Western Kentucky (+40), vs. Florida A&M (+21), Ohio State (+40), vs. UAB (+6)
Losses: vs. Kansas (-7), @Florida State (-3)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Notre Dame	3-1	116	100	+16

Wins: vs. Lafayette (+43), vs. Maryland (+9), Alabama (+15)
Loss: vs. Butler (-5)

Notre Dame is going to win the Big East.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Villanova	6-3	112	96	+16

Wins: vs. College of Charleston (+18), vs. Iowa (+46), @Stony Brook (+44), vs. Penn (+14), @Oklahoma (+20), @LaSalle (+23)
Losses: vs. Xavier (-7), Drexel (-5), @West Virginia (-15)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Butler	8-1	106	91	+15

Wins: @Tulane (+70), vs. Notre Dame (+3), vs. Indiana (+8), vs. Tennessee (+17), vs. Gonzaga (+16), @ Valparaiso (+20), vs. Purdue (+5), @UW-Milwaukee (+5)
Loss: @Indiana State (-13)

Due to their combination of slow pace, good defense, and inconsistent offense, Butler is going to play a lot of close games the rest of the season.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
North Carolina	4-1	113	99	+14

Wins: vs. Winthrop (+13), vs. Tennessee (+12), Ohio State (+17), @St. Louis (+35)
Loss: vs. Gonzaga (-10)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Arizona	4-1	112	99	+13

Wins: vs. Illinois (+14), vs. Louisville (+12), @San Diego State (+34), Memphis (+13)
Loss @Virginia (-11)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Nevada	6-1	111	98	+13

Wins: @Oregon State (+43), @Santa Clara (+16), @Louisiana-Lafayette (+17), vs. California (+11), @Akron (+7), vs. Gonzaga (+12)
Loss: UNLV (-15)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Oregon	4-0	104	92	+12

Wins: @Rice (+8), @Georgetown (+10), vs. Nebraska (+26), @Oregon State (+4)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
UCLA	3-0	114	102	+12

Wins: vs.Kentucky (+5), vs. Georgia Tech (+26), vs. UCLA (+5)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Wisconsin	4-1	106	94	+12

Wins: vs. Auburn (+24), @Marquette (+5), Pittsburgh (+24), @Georgia (+17)
Loss: vs. Missouri State (-10)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Washington State	8-2	106	95	+11

Wins: vs. UAB (+18), @UW-Milwaukee (+35), vs. Radford (+27), vs. Boise State (+3), Gonzaga (+14), @Idaho (+18), vs. San Diego State (+20), @USC (+5)
Losses: @Utah (-22), @UCLA (-5)

I would not be surprised were Washington State to finish as high as third in the Pac-10.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Alabama	5-1	109	99	+10

Wins: vs. Middle Tennessee State (+15), vs. Iowa (+16), vs. Xavier (+15), vs. Southern Miss (+16), @NC State (+10)
Loss: @Notre Dame (-15)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Indiana	2-4	105	95	+10

Wins: vs. Lafayette (+32), vs. IUPUI (+65)
Losses: vs. Butler (-8), @Duke (-6), @Kentucky (-8), @Ohio State (-15)

That's an average of +48.5 per 100 possessions against Lafayette and IUPUI in Indianapolis and an average of -9.25 in their other four at-risk games. This is a good defensive team but it remains to be seen if they can grind out enough wins against decent competition to make the tournament.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Duke	2-1	108	100	+8

Wins: vs. Air Force (+25), vs. Gonzaga (+20)
Loss: vs. Marquette (-21)

If Georgetown and Indiana rally in conference play, Duke will possess a more complete resume. I'll be curious to see to what degree they can maintain their defensive performance once they start playing road games.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Missouri State	2-1	105	98	+7

Wins: vs. Wisconsin (+10), @UNC-Wilmington (+23), @South Florida (+17), @Bradley (+16)
Losses: vs. Oklahoma State (-6), @St Louis (+1), @Creighton (+7)

They look to be the class of the MVC at this point.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Marquette	3-2	100	94	+6

Wins: vs. Texas Tech (+16), vs. Duke (+21), @Valparaiso (+4)
Losses: North Dakota State (-6), Wisconsin (-5)

Marquette hasn't played a game outside the Bradley Center since November 27th. Four of their first six Big East games are on the road.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Maryland	3-2	102	97	+5

Wins: @St. John's (+41), vs. Michigan State (+4), @Illinois (+7)
Loss vs. Notre Dame (-9), @Boston College (-20)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Tennessee	5-2	100	95	+5

Wins: vs. Fordham (+12), vs. UNC-Wilmington (+16), @Louisiana-Lafayette (+10), Memphis (+26), vs. Oklahoma State (+5)
Losses: vs. Butler (-18), vs. North Carolina (-15)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Pittsburgh	3-2	114	110	+4

Wins: vs. Western Michigan (+21), @Auburn (+15), @Buffalo (+9)
Losses: @Wisconsin (-24), vs. Oklahoma State (-4)

Pittsburgh's just a better version of Washington playing at a slower pace. They appear unlikely to guard anybody well enough to win consistently.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Wichita State	4-4	104	100	+4

Wins: @George Mason (+11), @LSU (+9), @Syracuse (+4), vs. Wyoming (+22)
Losses: vs. New Mexico (-1), vs. USC (-1), Northern Iowa (-8), @Southern Illinois (-3)

They were never the eighth best team in the country, but they've hardly fallen apart. The margins in those losses to New Mexico, USC, and Southern Illinois are extremely narrow and they were unlucky to lose all three.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Georgetown	3-3	106	103	+3

Wins: @Vanderbilt (+19), @Fairfield (+23), @Michigan (+26)
Losses: Old Dominion (-26), Oregon (-10), @Duke (-14)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Michigan State	2-2	101	98	+3

Win: vs. Texas (+5), vs. BYU (+20)
Losses: vs. Maryland (-5), @Boston College (-12)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
LSU	3-3	98	98	0

Win: @Tulane (+8), Texas A&M (+21), @Oregon State (+11)
Losses: Wichita State (-9), vs. Texas (-2), @Washington (-26)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Syracuse	1-3	103	104	-1

Win: @Canisius (+20)
Losses: Wichita State (-4), vs. Oklahoma State (-9), Drexel (-9)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Memphis	2-3	100	102	-2

Wins: Oklahoma (+20), Kentucky (+18)
Losses: vs. Georgia Tech (-9), @Tennessee (-26), @Arizona (-13)

The Tigers are likely a notch below Duke and Kansas but they're similar in that they need to get better offensively in order to make a tournament run concomitant with their ambitions.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Virginia	2-3	115	117	-2

Win: Arizona (+11), Gonzaga (+32)
Loss: @Purdue (-1), vs. Appalachian State (-18), vs. Utah (-33)

A couple more times this year Virginia will get hot and outscore somebody. The rest of the time they'll just be getting scored upon.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Boston College	3-4	102	105	-3

Wins: Michigan State (+12), @UMass (+15), Maryland (+20)
Losses: Vermont (-23), @Providence (-15), @Kansas (-25), Duquense (-4)

The loss at Kansas was right in the sweet spot of getting beat comprehensively on both sides of the ball. Boston College scored less than 90 points per 100 possessions and allowed over 110. Their upside, even when completely healthy, is winning a first round game in the NCAA Tournament. If they go 0-2 @NC State and @Wake Forest over the next week, getting the chance to play a tournament game will be iffy.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Georgia Tech	2-1	110	114	-4

Wins: vs. Purdue (+25), vs. Memphis (+9)
Losses: vs. UCLA (-26), @Miami, FL (-10), @Vanderbilt (-16)

The way things were going, the home win against Georgia can't be discounted in the grand scheme of things. It isn't counted here because that's a game a team should win. Expectations have dimmed in Atlanta to the point where competence causes one to take notice.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Illinois	4-4	101	105	-4

Wins: vs. Miami, OH (+6), vs. Bradley (+7), vs. Illinois-Chicago (+7), vs. Missouri (+4)
Losses: Maryland (-7), vs. Arizona (-14), @Xavier (-16), @Michigan (-17)

That collection of narrower wins than losses has to disturb Illinois fans. Rich McBride (25% on two-pointers, 32.9% on three-pointers) obviously needs to make more shots but it's their recent defensive play (points per 100 possessions allowed in their last 4 games: vs. Missouri (108), Idaho State (112!), @Xavier (109), @Michigan (113)) that suggests that the team's upside may be somewhere slightly above average.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
California	5-5	104	109	-5

Wins: vs. Marshall (+6), vs. Hawaii (+23), vs. Loyola Marymount (+8), @Arizona State (+2), @Stanford (+2)
Losses: @San Diego State (-11), vs. Nevada (-11), San Diego (-10), @DePaul (-45), @Arizona (-12)

Cal has 0 good wins, but they're 2-1 in conference without having played a game at home yet. On such flimsy foundations are marginal high-major tournament bids built.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Gonzaga	3-6	109	115	-6

Wins: vs. UNC (+10), vs. Texas (+11), Washington (+30)
Losses: vs. Butler (-17), @Washington State (-14), vs. Georgia (-13), vs. Duke (-19), vs. Nevada (-12), @Virginia (-32)

The totals above include the home win over a Washington team that may not be very good. I'm keeping it for now on the basis of Washington's win over LSU and the in-state rivalry between the Huskies and the 'Zags.

The Duke and Nevada losses had a lot to do with those teams limiting Derek Raivio's shot attempts but last night's game in Charlottesville involved a complete defensive meltdown on the scale of Michigan's visit to UCLA.

Gonzaga will look much better once they get to play another home game and should again be the best team in the WCC by a large margin. Their expectations come tournament time should be much more realistic than they were last year however.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Purdue	2-4	104	111	-7

Wins: vs. Oklahoma (+5), vs. DePaul (+16)
Loss: vs. Georgia Tech (-25), vs. Butler (-5), @Indiana State (-22), @Minnesota (-10)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Georgia	2-4	96	104	-8

Wins: @Wake Forest (-4), vs. Gonzaga (+13)
Losses: Western Kentucky (-6), @Georgia Tech (-12), @Clemson (-22), Wisconsin (-17)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Ohio State	1-2	102	110	-8

Win: vs. Cincinnati (+32)
Loss: @North Carolina (-17), @Florida (-40)

The final 18 minutes in Gainesville certianly raised some questions about whether the Buckeyes are as far along as I thought. Their offense rebounded against a good Indiana defense, but they allowed the Hoosiers to score far too easily in Columbus.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Washington	1-3	108	119	-11

Win: LSU (+26)
Losses: @Gonzaga (-30), @USC (-13), @UCLA (-28)

They don't appear to be getting any better.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Stanford	3-4	95	107	-12

Wins: vs. Texas Tech (+13), @Fresno State (+4), @Arizona State (+15)
Losses: Air Force (-63), Santa Clara (-24), @Arizona (-23), California (-2)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
UConn	0-1	100	112	-12

Loss: @West Virginia (-12)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Iowa	1-6	94	107	-13

Wins: vs. Toledo (+15)
Losses: vs. Alabama (-16), vs. Villanova (-46), @Arizona State (-6), @Virginia Tech (-10), Northern Iowa (-6), @ Drake (-23)

I'm pretty sure they're better than Iowa State but I wouldn't wager on them to outperform Northern Iowa or Drake from here on out. I assume Hawkeye fans are thinking about people like Chris Lowery at this point.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Michigan	1-3	95	115	-20

Win: @Miami, OH (+14)
Losses: @NC State (-10), @UCLA (-59), Georgetown (-26)

The home win over Illinois last night may come to count as an at-risk win in time but the Wolverines would still be -13 per 100 possessions in at-risk games even if we included that game.