Performance in At-risk Games: MVC through 1/22/07

Conference standings (by average efficiency margin) through 1/22/07

Team	Eff Margin	Record
Creighton	+11	6-3
Missouri State	+9	5-4
Southern Illinois	+7	6-3
Northern Iowa	+6	6-2
Wichita State	0	3-6
Bradley	-1	5-4
Evansville	-2	4-5
Indiana State	-8	4-4
Illinois State	-7	3-6
Drake	-14	2-7

Disclaimer: Obviously, all at-risk games (all losses plus road/neutral wins plus home wins against NCAA Tournament teams) are not created equally so I'll provide more information than just the numbers. I am listing teams in order of efficiency margin (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) simply as an organizational choice. These are not rankings.

I don't know which teams from the Missouri Valley are going to make the NCAA Tournament. Therefore, NO CONFERENCE HOME WINS ARE INCLUDED IN THE AT-RISK PROFILES AT THIS TIME.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Northern Iowa	6-4	102	97	+5
vs. MVC	6-2	105	99	+6

Wins: vs. Nicholls State (+9), vs. Pepperdine (+42), @Bucknell (+23), @Iowa (+6), @Wichita State (+8), @Missouri State (+13)
Losses: @Washington (-14), @Loyola-Chicago (-14), @Illinois State (-5), Creighton (-16)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Southern Illinois	8-5	99	96	+3
vs. MVC	6-3	108	101	+7

Wins: vs. Minnesota (+21), vs. Virginia Tech (+7), @Louisiana Tech (+25), @Western Kentucky (-1), @St. Mary's (+10), @Illinois State (+32), @Drake (+4), @Creighton (-1)
Losses: vs. Arkansas (-13), @Indiana (-21), @Northern Iowa (-10), @Bradley (+2), @Evansville (-14)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Creighton	4-7	103	102	+1
vs. MVC	6-3	111	100	+11

Wins: vs. Valparaiso (+40), vs. Houston (+20), @Evansville (+24), @Northern Iowa (+16)
Losses: @Nebraska (-17), @Dayton (-7), @Fresno State (-23), @Hawaii (-24), @Indiana State (-5), @Wichita State (-15), Southern Illinois (+1)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Missouri State	5-6	104	103	+1
vs. MVC	5-4	115	106	+9

Wins: vs. Wisconsin (+10), @UNC-Wilmington (+23), @South Florida (+17), @Bradley (+16), @Illinois State (+16)
Losses: vs. Oklahoma State (-6), @St Louis (+1), @Creighton (+7), @Southern Illinois (-29), Northern Iowa (-13), @Evansville (-15)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Wichita State	4-8	105	107	-2
vs. MVC	3-6	108	108	0

Wins: @George Mason (+11), @LSU (+9), @Syracuse (+4), vs. Wyoming (+22)
Losses: vs. New Mexico (-1), vs. USC (-1), Northern Iowa (-8), @Southern Illinois (-3), @Missouri State (-14), @Indiana State (-12), @Illinois State (-12), @Bradley (-26)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Bradley	4-7	108	113	-5
vs. MVC	5-4	108	109	-1

Wins: vs. Rutgers (+36), vs. Iowa State (+12), @Drake (+4), @Indiana State (+38)
Losses: vs. Illinois (-7), @Tennessee Tech (-8), @Michigan State (-41), @Northern Iowa (-15), Missouri State (-16), @Wichita State (-36), @Creighton (-21)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Illinois St	3-9	94	101	-7
vs. MVC	3-6	100	107	-7

Wins: vs. McNeese State (+28), @St. John's (+20), @Illinois-Chicago (+15)
Losses: vs. SMU (-1), @Florida State (-18), @Evansville (-43), @Western Michigan (-14), Southern Illinois (-32), @Creighton (-14), Indiana State (-3), @Drake (-1), Missouri State (-16)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Drake	4-9	106	115	-9
vs. MVC	2-7	107	121	-14

Wins: vs. SE Missouri State (+37), @Iowa State (+1), vs. Toledo (+25), vs. Jackson State (+5)
Losses: vs. Utah State (-29), vs. Troy (-11), @Evansville (-34), @Indiana State (-18), Southern Illinois (-4), Bradley (-4), @Creighton (-37), @Southern Illinois (-18), @Illinois State (-27)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Indiana St	3-7	99	109	-10
vs. MVC	4-4	102	110	-8

Wins: @IPFW (+13), Butler (+13), @Illinois State (+3)
Losses: @Indiana (-13), @Middle Tennessee State (-10), @Ball State (-4), @Missouri State (-30), Bradley (-38), @Drake (-11), @Northern Iowa (-22)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Evansville	2-9	101	114	-13
vs. MVC	4-5	104	106	-2

Wins: @Tennessee-Martin (+28), @Austin Peay (+11)
Losses: @Lipscomb (-7), Miami, FL (-11), @Missouri (-26), @Butler (-14), @Bradley (-11), @Northern Iowa (0), Creighton (-24), @Missouri State (-67), @Wichita State (-22)