| Team | Eff Margin | Record |
| Pittsburgh | +18 | 4-0 |
| Syracuse | +12 | 3-1 |
| Providence | +10 | 2-1 |
| West Virginia | +8 | 3-2 |
| Louisville | +8 | 2-2 |
| UConn | +6 | 2-2 |
| DePaul | +4 | 2-2 |
| Notre Dame | +4 | 3-1 |
| Georgetown | +3 | 1-2 |
| Marquette | 0 | 3-2 |
| Seton Hall | -4 | 2-2 |
| Villanova | -9 | 1-3 |
| Rutgers | -11 | 1-3 |
| St. John's | -16 | 1-3 |
| South Florida | -20 | 1-3 |
| Cincinnati | -23 | 0-2 |
Disclaimer: Obviously, all at-risk games (all losses plus road/neutral wins plus home wins against NCAA Tournament teams) are not created equally so I'll provide more information than just the numbers. I am listing teams in order of efficiency margin (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) simply as an organizational choice. These are not rankings.
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| West Virginia | 4-3 | 112 | 99 | +13 |
| vs. Big East | 3-2 | 104 | 96 | +8 |
Wins: vs. Montana (+29), vs. Western Michigan (+35), vs. NC State (+21), @Duquense (+51)
Losses: vs. Arkansas (-11), @Notre Dame (-4), @Marquette (-28)
Also: UConn (+12)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Villanova | 7-5 | 108 | 98 | +10 |
| vs. Big East | 1-3 | 95 | 104 | -9 |
Wins: vs. College of Charleston (+18), vs. Iowa (+46), @Stony Brook (+44), vs. Penn (+14), @Oklahoma (+20), @LaSalle (+23), @Georgetown (+6)
Losses: vs. Xavier (-7), Drexel (-5), @West Virginia (-15), DePaul (-10), @Syracuse (-20)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Pittsburgh | 5-2 | 112 | 105 | +7 |
| vs. Big East | 4-0 | 117 | 99 | +18 |
Wins: vs. Western Michigan (+21), @Auburn (+15), @Buffalo (+9), @Syracuse (+11), @DePaul (+17)
Losses: @Wisconsin (-24), vs. Oklahoma State (-4)
I'm still skeptical that they can guard anybody well enough to go very deep in the NCAA Tournament. This is undoubtedly a quality offensive team but I think (and this could be mere evidence of my prejudices) you'll find that very few Final Four teams allowed 1.26 points per possession in a game during the season, much less in a home game as Pittsburgh did in their 74-69 (54 possession) win over Georgetown.
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Notre Dame | 4-2 | 107 | 101 | +6 |
| vs. Big East | 3-1 | 106 | 102 | +4 |
Wins: vs. Lafayette (+43), vs. Maryland (+9), Alabama (+15), West Virginia (+4)
Loss: vs. Butler (-5), @Georgetown (-31)
Including the home win against West Virginia is a borderline decision and one I'll be re-visiting weekly.
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Georgetown | 4-5 | 104 | 99 | +5 |
| vs. Big East | 1-2 | 107 | 104 | +3 |
Wins: @Vanderbilt (+19), @Fairfield (+23), @Michigan (+26), Notre Dame (+31)
Losses: Old Dominion (-26), Oregon (-10), @Duke (-14), Villanova (-6), @Pittsburgh (-13)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Marquette | 6-4 | 100 | 97 | +3 |
| vs. Big East | 3-2 | 100 | 100 | 0 |
Wins: vs. Texas Tech (+16), vs. Duke (+21), @Valparaiso (+4), @UConn (+8), West Virginia (+28), @Louisville (+12)
Losses: North Dakota State (-6), Wisconsin (-5), @Providence (-24), Syracuse (-21)
Including Marquette's home win over West Virginia helps demonstrate how Marquette is one game above .500 in conference with a neutral efficiency margin.
This may be the most inconsistent offensive team in the country. In their five conference games they've scored (in chronological order) 89, 77, 97, 119, and 120 points per 100 possessions.
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Syracuse | 3-4 | 103 | 100 | +3 |
| vs. Big East | 3-1 | 106 | 94 | +12 |
Wins: @Canisius (+20), @Marquette (+21), @Rutgers (+19)
Losses: Wichita State (-4), vs. Oklahoma State (-9), Drexel (-9), Pittsburgh (-11)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| DePaul | 4-7 | 102 | 105 | -3 |
| vs. Big East | 2-2 | 100 | 96 | +4 |
Wins: Kansas (+11), @Villanova (+10), @Rutgers (+43), @Rhode Island (+16)
Losses: @Bradley (-31), @Northwestern (-21), vs. Kentucky (-6), vs. Purdue (-16), @UAB (0), @St. John's (-22), Pittsburgh (-17)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Louisville | 1-6 | 99 | 105 | -6 |
| vs. Big East | 2-2 | 112 | 104 | +8 |
Win: @South Florida (+39)
Loss: vs. Dayton (-7), vs. Arizona (-12), UMass (-8), Kentucky (-21), @Notre Dame (-22), Marquette (-12)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| UConn | 1-3 | 91 | 98 | -7 |
| vs. Big East | 2-2 | 101 | 95 | +6 |
Win: @St. John's (+15)
Losses: @West Virginia (-12), @LSU (-23), Marquette (-8)
The Huskies have 0 good wins thus far and they don't a return shot against either West Virginia or Marquette. They do have non-conference games coming up at both Indiana and Georgia Tech (neither a lock to make the NCAA Tournament field), road games at Georgetown and Syracuse and a home game against Syracuse.
I figure they have to win at least three of those five and not drop games at Louisville or at DePaul or any of their home games to make the NCAA Tournament field as an at-large selection.
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Seton Hall | 2-6 | 98 | 106 | -8 |
| vs. Big East | 2-2 | 105 | 109 | -4 |
Wins: @Morgan State (+26), vs. Liberty (+5)
Losses: Farleigh Dickinson (-8), vs. Virginia Tech (-24), vs. Oral Roberts (+1), @BYU (-14), @Providence (-33), @Notre Dame (-18)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| South Florida | 3-8 | 93 | 101 | -8 |
| vs. Big East | 1-3 | 89 | 109 | -20 |
Wins: @Winston-Salem State (+30), @East Carolina (+20), vs. Norfolk State (+43)
Losses: Richmond (-14), vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (-9), @UNLV (-20), Missouri State (-17), @UAB (-20), @UConn (-32), @Pittsburgh (-33), Louisville (-39)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| St. John's | 1-7 | 95 | 112 | -17 |
| vs. Big East | 1-3 | 91 | 107 | -16 |
Win: @Niagara (+33)
Losses: Maryland (-41), Texas (-3), Illinois State (-20), Hofstra (-23), @West Virginia (-44), @Seton Hall (-26), UConn (-15)
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Cincinnati | 1-7 | 93 | 111 | -18 |
| vs. Big East | 0-2 | 77 | 100 | -23 |
Win: vs. Temple (+7)
Losses: Wofford (-1), UAB (-6), vs. Ohio State (-32), vs. Ohio (-19), @Memphis (-53), Rutgers (-23), @USF (-21)
Also: Xavier (+18)
Cincinnati is 0-2 by a margin of -23 points per 100 possessions despite opening the conference schedule at home against Rutgers and at South Florida. It's not going to get any easier for the Bearcats.
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Rutgers | 2-9 | 88 | 108 | -20 |
| vs. Big East | 1-3 | 90 | 101 | -11 |
Wins: @Princeton (+14), @Cincinnati (+23)
Losses: Kansas State (-22), Jackson State (-7), vs. Bradley (-36), vs. Miami, OH (-22), @Temple (-39), @North Carolina (-60), @Seton Hall (-6), Syracuse (-19), DePaul (-43)
In the running, along with Colorado and Minnesota, to be the worst offensive team in any of the six major conferences.
| Team | Record | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Providence | 0-4 | 84 | 112 | -28 |
| vs. Big East | 2-1 | 108 | 98 | +10 |
Losses: Brown (-15), @Florida (-28), @Florida State (-43), @Louisville (-27)
Also: Boston College (+15), Marquette (+24)
My conservative nature with regard to categorizing home wins at this point in the season leaves Providence with a slim and unimpressive at-risk profile. The wins over Boston College and Marquette are obviously worth more than nothing but Providence have been awful the three times they've ventured away from home.
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