Friday, January 26, 2007

Performance in At-risk Games: Big 12 through 1/25/07

Standings by average efficiency margin
TeamEff MarginRecord
Texas+154-1
Kansas+144-1
Texas A&M+144-1
Oklahoma+133-3
Texas Tech+114-1
Kansas St+33-2
Nebraska-11-3
Iowa St-32-3
Missouri-51-4
Oklahoma St-93-2
Colorado-231-5
Baylor-231-5

Disclaimer: Obviously, all at-risk games (all losses plus road/neutral wins plus home wins against NCAA Tournament teams) are not created equally so I'll provide more information than just the numbers. I am listing teams in order of efficiency margin (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) simply as an organizational choice. These are not rankings.

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Texas A&M4-311097+13
vs. Big 124-110894+14

Wins: @Auburn (+42), Winthrop (+36), @Baylor (+19), @Colorado (+24)

Losses: @LSU (-21), vs. UCLA (-5), @Texas Tech (-6)

Also: Oklahoma State (+26)

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Kansas6-310394+9
vs. Big 124-110591+14

Wins: vs. Ball State (+25), vs. Florida (+7), vs. Toledo (+16), @South Carolina (+25), @Iowa State (+2), @Baylor (+36)

Losses: Oral Roberts (-14), @DePaul (-11), @Texas Tech (-9)

Also: Boston College (+25), Oklahoma State (+38)

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Texas Tech7-5106102+4
vs. Big 124-110897+11

Wins: @UTEP (+21), @TCU (+11), @Louisiana Tech (+17), vs. Arkansas (+25), @Kansas State (+19), Kansas (+9), Texas A&M (+6)

Losses: vs. Marquette (-16), vs. Air Force (-27), @Stanford (-13), UNLV (-10), @Baylor (-3)

The wins over Kansas and Texas A&M sure are nice, but there's nothing in Texas Tech's resume to suggest that the last week won't be the obvious high point of their season.

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Texas4-51081080
vs. Big 124-1120105+15

Wins: @St. John's (+3), vs. LSU (+2), Colorado (+31), @Nebraska (-3)

Losses: vs. Michigan State (-5), vs. Gonzaga (-11), @Tennessee (-3), @Oklahoma State (-5), @Villanova (-14)

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Kansas St6-698100-2
vs. Big 123-2103100+3

Wins: @Rutgers (+22), @North Dakota State (+3), vs. USC (+20), vs. New Mexico (+24), @Missouri (+9), @Iowa State (+15)

Losses: @New Mexico (-31), @California (-43), @Colorado State (-7), @Xavier (-14), @Texas A&M (-5), Texas Tech (-19)

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Nebraska3-6106108-2
vs. Big 121-3104105-1

Wins: vs. Wyoming (+22), vs. Houston (+19), @Miami, FL (+25)

Losses: @Rutgers (-7), vs. Oregon (-26), @Hawaii (-11), @Iowa State (-15), @Oklahoma (-26), Texas (+3)

Also: Creighton (+17)

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Oklahoma St5-3100103-3
vs. Big 123-298107-9

Wins: vs. Auburn (+2), vs. Missouri State (+6), vs. Syracuse (+4), vs. Ball State (+33), vs. Pittsburgh (+4)

Losses: vs. Tennessee (-5), @Kansas (-38), @Texas A&M (-26)

It appears inevitable that JamesOn Curry is going to get the shaft when the All-Big 12 team is announced because Mario Boggan scored 37 points against Texas (on TV and stuff!!!). Boggan has yet to play a good game against Kansas in his career, was almost as bad against Texas A&M, and only slightly better against Oklahoma in Stillwater. Boggan feasts on inferior teams but lacks the ability to trouble good teams.

Curry is the more efficient (and almost as prolific) scorer, turns the ball over less often (despite having the ball far more often than Boggan), and creates more opportunities for his teammates often while playing out of position. I'd put Curry on the early draft of my (hypothetical) All-Big 12 ballot alongside Durant, Maric, Zeno, and Nate Carter.

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Missouri1-699106-7
vs. Big 121-4100105-5

Win: @Colorado (+23)

Losses: @Purdue (-23), vs. Illinois (-4), Iowa State (+2), @Texas (-33), Kansas State (-9), @Kansas (-6)

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Oklahoma1-791103-12
vs. Big 123-311097+13

Win: @Tulsa (+15)

Losses: vs. Memphis (-20), vs. Purdue (-5), Villanova (-20), @Alabama (-24), @Texas Tech (-21), @Texas (-14), @Oklahoma State (-9)

Their three conference wins (Colorado, Nebraska, and Baylor) show that Oklahoma are still capable of playing very good defense at home against inferior opponents. Tommorrow's game in College Station is their last chance at a quality win away from home until the Big 12 Tournament.

My opinion of the Sooners has risen after six Big 12 games. I now think they're fully capable of making a deep run in the NIT Tournament.

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Iowa St2-894106-12
vs. Big 122-397100-3

Wins: @Minnesota (+5), @Missouri (-2)

Losses: @Northern Iowa (-19), Drake (-1), @Iowa (-27), vs. Bradley (-12), @Ohio State (-33), Kansas (-2), @Colorado (-10), Kansas State (-15)

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Baylor1-894114-20
vs. Big 121-593116-23

Win: vs. Colorado State (+6)

Losses: @Gonzaga (-16), South Carolina (-4), @Syracuse (-31), @Oklahoma State (-7), Texas A&M (-19), @Kansas State (-17), @Oklahoma (-58), Kansas (-36)

Also: Texas Tech (+3)

TeamRecordOffEffDefEffDiff
Colorado1-1187112-25
vs. Big 121-590113-23

Win: @Utah (0)

Losses: @New Mexico (-55), Air Force (-57), Wyoming (-4), @UNC-Wilmington (-14), Pepperdine (-10), Colorado State (-8), Texas (-32), @Oklahoma (-36), Texas A&M (-24), @Nebraska (-36), Missouri (-23)

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