Performance in At-risk Games: Big 12 through 1/14/07

Conference standings (by average efficiency margin) through 1/14/07

Team	Eff Margin	Record
Texas	+27	3-0
Kansas	+21	2-0
Texas A&M	+16	3-0
Texas Tech	+12	2-1
Iowa St	+3	2-1
Oklahoma	+1	1-2
Kansas St	-5	1-2
Baylor	-8	1-2
Missouri	-14	0-3
Nebraska	-15	0-1
Oklahoma St	-16	1-1
Colorado	-31	0-3

Disclaimer: Obviously, all at-risk games (all losses plus road/neutral wins plus home wins against NCAA Tournament teams) are not created equally so I'll provide more information than just the numbers. I am listing teams in order of efficiency margin (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) simply as an organizational choice. These are not rankings.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Texas A&M	4-2	110	94	+16
vs. Big 12	3-0	108	92	+16

Wins: @Auburn (+42), Winthrop (+36), @Baylor (+19), @Colorado (+24)
Losses: @LSU (-21), vs. UCLA (-5)

The Aggies appear to be the best team in the conference. It will be a shame if they fail to win the conference title because Kansas has a much easier schedule. Unfortunately, the 22-game conference schedule does not appear on the horizon.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Kansas	5-2	102	95	+7
vs. Big 12	2-0	107	86	+21

Wins: vs. Ball State (+25), vs. Florida (+7), vs. Toledo (+16), @South Carolina (+25), @Iowa State (+2)
Losses: Oral Roberts (-14), @DePaul (-11)

Also: Boston College (+25), Oklahoma State (+38)

Iowa State was merely the latest team of no real defensive stature (joining Oral Roberts, Ball State, DePaul, Toledo, and Detroit) to make Kansas look inept offensively. Until Kansas demonstrates a consistent ability to put the ball in the basket they should not be taken seriously as a national title contender.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Texas	3-3	111	108	+3
vs. Big 12	3-0	130	103	+27

Wins: @St. John's (+3), vs. LSU (+2), Colorado (+31)
Losses: vs. Michigan State (-5), vs. Gonzaga (-11), @Tennessee (-3)

Also: Arkansas (+10)

The dark cloud within the silver lining of Texas's three easy wins to open the conference season is allowing 103 points per 100 possessions to Colorado, Missouri, and Oklahoma.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Texas Tech	5-5	105	102	+3
vs. Big 12	2-1	105	93	+12

Wins: @UTEP (+21), @TCU (+11), @Louisiana Tech (+17), vs. Arkansas (+25), @ Kansas State (+19)
Losses: vs. Marquette (-16), vs. Air Force (-27), @Stanford (-13), UNLV (-10), @Baylor (-3)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Nebraska	3-4	108	107	+1
vs. Big 12	0-1	103	118	-15

Wins: vs. Wyoming (+22), vs. Houston (+19), @Miami, FL (+25)
Losses: @Rutgers (-7), vs. Oregon (-26), @Hawaii (-11), @Iowa State (-15)

Also: Creighton (+17)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Oklahoma State	5-2	104	103	+1
vs. Big 12	1-1	98	114	-16

Wins: vs. Auburn (+2), vs. Missouri State (+6), vs. Syracuse (+4), vs. Ball State (+33), vs. Pittsburgh (+4)
Losses: vs. Tennessee (-5), @Kansas (-38)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Kansas State	5-6	97	101	-4
vs. Big 12	1-2	98	103	-5

Wins: @Rutgers (+22), @North Dakota State (+3), vs. USC (+20), vs. New Mexico (+24), @Missouri (+9)
Losses: @New Mexico (-31), @California (-43), @Colorado State (-7), @Xavier (-14), @Texas A&M (-5), Texas Tech (-19)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Baylor	1-5	98	110	-12
vs. Big 12	1-2	101	109	-8

Win: vs. Colorado State (+6)
Losses: @Gonzaga (-16), South Carolina (-4), @Syracuse (-31), @Oklahoma State (-7), Texas A&M (-19)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Iowa State	2-6	95	107	-12
vs. Big 12	2-1	100	97	+3

Wins: @Minnesota (+5), @Missouri (-2)
Losses: @Northern Iowa (-19), Drake (-1), @Iowa (-27), vs. Bradley (-12), @Ohio State (-33), Kansas (-2)

Mike Taylor's getting an inordinate amount of credit for scoring 21 points on 23 field goal and 8 free throw attempts against Kansas. At times, the Cyclones offense appeared to be running the basketball equivalent of dump-and-chase.

Iowa State have played three good defensive games in conference play. They'll have to continue to play well on that end of the floor to remain competitive. As bad as Kansas looked offensively on Saturday, Iowa State looked even worse.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Oklahoma	1-6	90	103	-13
vs. Big 12	1-2	101	100	+1

Win: @Tulsa (+15)
Losses: vs. Memphis (-20), vs. Purdue (-5), Villanova (-20), @Alabama (-24), @Texas Tech (-21), @Texas (-14)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Missouri	0-5	96	110	-14
vs. Big 12	0-3	97	111	-14

Losses: @Purdue (-23), vs. Illinois (-4), Iowa State (+2), @Texas (-33), Kansas State (-9)

The Tigers have a real shot at being the worst rebounding team in the nation. Through three conference games, they're getting just 21.2% of the possible offensive rebounds and 57.7% of the possible defensive rebounds.

Marshall Brown has been scoring as effectively as anyone other than Kevin Durant so far in conference play. He's averaging 1.58 PPWS and 51 points per 100 possessions.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Colorado	1-9	87	111	-24
vs. Big 12	0-3	89	120	-31

Win: @Utah (0)
Losses: @New Mexico (-55), Air Force (-57), Wyoming (-4), @UNC-Wilmington (-14), Pepperdine (-10), Colorado State (-8), Texas (-32), @Oklahoma (-36), Texas A&M (-24)