Performance in At-risk Games: Big 12 through 1/1/07

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Oklahoma St	5-1	108	101	+7

Wins: vs. Auburn (+2), vs. Missouri State (+6), vs. Syracuse (+4), vs. Ball State (+33), vs. Pittsburgh (+4)
Loss: vs. Tennessee (-5)

Their only at-risk game decided by more than 5 points per 100 possessions was against Ball State. If they don't get any better, they'll remain on the tournament bubble and be subject to the whims of luck. This year's edition appears capable of continuing the school's post-Tony Allen tradition of not being very good defensively. Marcus Dove is just one man.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Texas A&M	1-2	105	99	+6

Win: @Auburn (+42)
Losses: @LSU (-21), vs. UCLA (-5)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Kansas	3-2	101	96	+5

Wins: vs. Ball State (+25), vs. Florida (+7), vs. Toledo (+16)
Losses: Oral Roberts (-14), @DePaul (-11)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Nebraska	4-3	110	105	+5

Wins: Creighton (+17), vs. Wyoming (+22), vs. Houston (+19), @Miami, FL (+25)
Losses: @Rutgers (-7), vs. Oregon (-26), @Hawaii (-11)

Your 2007 Big 12 Conference sleeper. Nebraska are capable of making shots with ridiculous efficiency. They posted an eFG% of 78.4 against Creighton, 71.3 @Rutgers (they allowed Rutgers to shoot 75 eFG%--there were only 45 rebounds in the game), and 64.9 @Miami, FL.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Texas Tech	4-4	104	103	+1

Wins: @UTEP (+21), @TCU (+11), @Louisiana Tech (+17), vs. Arkansas (+25)
Losses: vs. Marquette (-16), vs. Air Force (-27), @Stanford (-13), UNLV (-10)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Kansas St	4-3	98	99	-1

Wins: @Rutgers (+22), @North Dakota State (+3), vs. USC (+20), vs. New Mexico (+24)
Losses: @New Mexico (-31), @California (-43), @Colorado State (-7)

Kansas State played really good defense in winning the Las Vegas Holiday Classic. The performance on that end of the court may be the Wildcats' bellweather in conference play as their offense remains inconsistent (and is likely to stay that way if Bill Walker continues to take as many shots as Cartier Martin and David Hoskins).

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Texas	2-3	107	110	-3

Wins: @St. John's (+3), vs. LSU (+2)
Losses: vs. Michigan State (-5), vs. Gonzaga (-11), @Tennessee (-3)

I think Texas has a slightly better chance of improving in 2007 than do the Obi Muonelo-less Oklahoma State Cowboys but I don't expect the Longhorns to improve drastically. Rick Barnes has never been an especially impressive coach on the defensive end and that's where Texas has the ability to get better.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Oklahoma	1-4	88	99	-11

Win: @Tulsa (+15)
Losses: vs. Memphis (-20), vs. Purdue (-5), Villanova (-20), @Alabama (-24)

Against all opponents, the Sooners allow 83 points per 100 possessions. They're 20 percent worse defensively against the five best teams they've played, a collection that's fairly representative of the quality of opposition they'll face in the Big 12. If Jeff Capel gets this team to .500 in conference play it will be an accomplishment. They're horrible offensively against anybody better than Norfolk State or UT-Arlington.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Baylor	1-3	99	111	-12

Win: vs. Colorado State (+6)
Losses: @Gonzaga (-16), South Carolina (-4), @Syracuse (-31)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Missouri	0-2	94	107	-13

Losses: @Purdue (-23), vs. Illinois (-4)

Barring a debacle against Mississipii State tonight, Matt Lawrence will post the best non-conference shooting performance of any Big 12 player: 61.5% on two-point attempts, 52.1% on three-point attempts, and 86.7% from the free throw line. That's a 73.7 eFG% and a 75.3 TS%. He doesn't do anything else, but you don't have to when you shoot that well. It will be interesting to see how he fares against Big 12 competition.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Iowa St	1-5	96	111	-15

Win: @Minnesota (+5)
Losses: @Northern Iowa (-19), Drake (-1), @Iowa (-27), vs. Bradley (-12), @Ohio State (-33)

Rashon Clark is stuggling to be effective offensively in the absence of Blalock and Stinson. Mike Taylor is averaging 10.8 turnovers per 100 possessions against (excepting Ohio State) mediocre-at-best competition when he's not missing the majority of his shots. Freshman Wesley Johnson is having the year Rashon Clark had last year. He could well come in handy in a couple years when the Cyclones might again be competitive.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Colorado	1-6	86	107	-21

Win: @Utah (0)
Losses: @New Mexico (-55), Air Force (-57), Wyoming (-4), @UNC-Wilmington (-14), Pepperdine (-10), Colorado State (-8)

Colorado haven't played since December 9th. I think it's even money at best as to whether or not they have given up completely on the season. The Melvin Watkins (0-16) is in play in Boulder.