Performance in At-risk Games: ACC through 1/11/07

As I mentioned in my post this morning, I think this is how I'll present the at-risk profiles until the NCAA Tournament starts: one or two conferences a day, opening with the conference standings by average efficiency margin (points per 100 possessions minus points per 100 possessions allowed represented on a per game basis) before moving on to each team's at-risk profile and accompanying commentary.

Conference standings (by average efficiency margin) through 1/11/07

Team	Eff Margin	Record
North Carolina	+24	2-0
Boston College	+18	3-0
Clemson	+8	3-0
Miami, FL	+7	2-1
Virginia Tech	+4	2-0
Georgia Tech	+1	1-2
Virginia	-3	1-1
Wake Forest	-5	1-2
Duke	-11	0-2
NC State	-16	0-3
Maryland	-17	0-2
Florida St	-19	0-2

I don't think the above holds any significant surprises so I'll move along.

Disclaimer: Obviously, all at-risk games (all losses plus road/neutral wins plus home wins against NCAA Tournament teams) are not created equally so I'll provide more information than just the numbers. I am listing teams in order of efficiency margin (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) simply as an organizational choice. These are not rankings.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Clemson	7-0	114	92	+22
vs. ACC	3-0	115	107	+8

Wins: vs. Arkansas State (+50), vs. Monmouth (+13), at Old Dominion (+5), @Minnesota (+30), @South Carolina (+29), @Florida State (+4), @NC State (+21)

Also: Georgia Tech (-1)

Clemson's defense seems to be getting an undue amount of the credit for their undefeated start to the season. They do force a good number of turnovers but at the expense of allowing a fairly high percentage of made shots, something their middle-of-the-road ACC opponents have been able to exploit (Georgia Tech: 62.2 eFG%, NC State: 63.2 eFG%) though quite enough to beat the Tigers.

I'd give the bulk of the credit to Clemson's own shooting efficiency (everywhere but the free throw line: 61.6 FT%) and rebounding (42 OR%, 69.3 DR%).

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
North Carolina	4-1	113	99	+14
vs. ACC	2-0	113	89	+24

Wins: vs. Winthrop (+13), vs. Tennessee (+12), Ohio State (+17), @St. Louis (+35)
Loss: vs. Gonzaga (-10)

Also: Kentucky (+18), Penn (+47)

Six of the next eight are away from home and should give us a much better idea of exactly how good this team is.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Boston College	Record	106	104	+5
vs. ACC	3-0	116	98	+18

Wins: Michigan State (+12), @UMass (+15), Maryland (+20), @NC State (+18), @Wake Forest (+16)
Losses: Vermont (-23), @Providence (-15), @Kansas (-25), Duquense (-4)

Boston College already has two road wins and one has to think there is legitimate room for improvement should their entire roster ever be completely healthy at the same time nobody is suspended.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Virginia Tech	3-4	101	96	+5
vs. ACC	2-0	99	95	+18

Wins: vs. Montana (+33), vs. Seton Hall (+24), @Duke (+8)
Losses: vs. Western Michigan (-7), vs. Southern Illinois (-7), @George Washington (-5), @Marshall (-6)

They look like an NIT team to me, but Ken Pomeroy has them ranked 27th in the country and his numbers predict 10 ACC wins for the Hokies. Their schedule (UNC, Clemson, Duke, Maryland, and Georgia Tech only appear once each) is certainly favorable.

They do a good job both limiting their own turnovers and forcing their opponents to give the ball away. I'm cautious about the prospects of Virginia Tech maintaining their current numbers as they've been fortunate with respect to their opponents' free throw shooting. Virginia Tech is allowing 36.8 FTA per FGA (that rises to 42.2 in at-risk games and 58.9 in their two ACC contests) but only 61% of those attempts are being made on the season.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Maryland	3-3	98	94	+4
vs. ACC	0-2	85	102	-17

Wins: @St. John's (+41), vs. Michigan State (+4), Winthrop (+13), @Illinois (+7)
Loss vs. Notre Dame (-9), @Boston College (-20), Miami, FL (-12)

They've barely cracked a point per possession in their non-St. John's at-risk wins and they haven't gotten above 0.92 points per possession in their three at-risk losses none of which came against a team that has otherwise demonstrated much of an aptitude for defense.

That's only a total of six games under consideration so there's no reason to believe Maryland can't take advantage of their good defense going forward. It is something to which I'll be paying attention.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Duke	3-3	101	98	+3
vs. ACC	0-2	90	101	-11

Wins: vs. Air Force (+25), vs. Gonzaga (+20), Georgetown (+14)
Loss: vs. Marquette (-21), Virginia Tech (-8), @Georgia Tech (-14)

Also: Indiana (+6)

I still don't think that Duke is the best defensive team in the country (as of this writing per kenpom.com), but I'm coming around to the idea that they're closer to excellent than merely good.

Offensively, they're a disaster though. Other than the excellent DeMarcus Nelson, Duke doesn't have a well-rounded offensive player. McRoberts is an excellent passer but not an especially efficient scorer. Scheyer is having a fine freshman year despite having to take on significant point guard responsibilities but he's still a complementary player at this point. Paulus is shooting well (but that's predicated on him not shooting often) but not well enough to off-set the turnovers. Gerald Henderson is shooting under 40 eFG% and Lance Thomas hasn't been an effective offensive player since the Marquette game.

Their next three games are against the three worst teams in the league, but two of them are on the road. If Duke can't go 3-0 they will struggle to find seven more conference wins on the schedule.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Florida St	3-3	105	103	+2
vs. ACC	0-2	90	109	-19

Wins: Florida (+3), @Stetson (+26), @Georgia State (+38), vs. Providence (+41)
Losses: @Pittsburgh (-31), @Wisconsin (-20), Clemson (-4), @North Carolina (-33)

The win over Florida is certainly impressive as is the margin of victory over a decent Providence. Losing @Pittsburgh, @Wisconsin, and @North Carolina is nothing to be ashamed of, but the margins by which Florida State lost to each of those teams precludes taking any encouragement from those games. They'll probably finish around 8-8 in the ACC with as many good performances as bad.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Georgia Tech	4-3	109	110	-1
vs. ACC	1-2	114	113	+1

Wins: vs. Purdue (+25), vs. Memphis (+9), Duke (+14)
Losses: vs. UCLA (-26), @Miami, FL (-10), @Vanderbilt (-16), @Clemson (+1)

Georgia Tech has a (barely) positive point differential in ACC play despite turning the ball over on 27% of their possessions and showing no ability to stop anybody without DUKE stitched on the front of their jerseys from scoring. So there remains ample room for improvement even as the time allotted for them to improve continues to dwindle.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Virginia	2-5	111	115	-4
vs. ACC	1-1	98	101	-3

Wins: Arizona (+11), Gonzaga (+32)
Loss: @Purdue (-1), vs. Appalachian State (-18), vs. Utah (-33), Stanford (-1), @UNC (-15)

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Miami, FL	3-8	99	109	-10
vs. ACC	2-1	109	102	+7

Wins: @Evansville (+11), @UMass (+3), @Maryland (+12)
Losses: vs. Buffalo (-5), vs. Cleveland State (-27), @Northwestern (-13), Mississippi State (-25), Binghamton (-10), @Louisville (-32), vs. Nebraska (-25), Wake Forest (-2)

Also: Georgia Tech (+10)

I'll just go ahead and say that Georgia Tech and Maryland should be embarrassed about losing to Miami, FL.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Wake Forest	3-8	100	112	-12
vs. ACC	1-2	101	106	-5

Wins: @Bucknell (+6), @Miami, FL (+2)
Losses: vs. Wake Forest (-57), Georgia (+4), @DePaul (-22), @Virginia Tech (0), @South Florida (-16), Boston College (-16)

Wake Forest is presenting a case study in why you just can't let the other team make more than half their shots while also sending them to the free throw line a bunch and still win many basketball games.

Team	Record	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
NC State	0-6	97	113	-16
vs. ACC	0-3	100	116	-16

Losses: @Virginia (-9), vs. West Virginia (-21), Alabama (-10), @Cincinnati (-14), Boston College (-18), Clemson (-21)

This is an undermanned team, more consistently not good enough than consistently bad.

Sophomore center Ben McCauley figures to feature prominently in the tempo-free league leaderboards once I get those up (1.27 PPWS, 27.9 PTS/100, 6.2 A/100, 10.2 OR%). He and Brandon Costner form a fine young front-court around which to build the next couple of NC State teams.