Friday, December 29, 2006
At-risk Games Update
I still have a backlog of game data to parse. At-risk updates will resume next week with the Big 12 on Tuesday and a national overview on Thursday.
Wednesday, December 27, 2006
The Ron Artest/Josh Smith Three-Pont Shootout, Pre-Trade, Post-Hernia Surgery Edition
Mr. Artest appears to be on his way out of Sacramento. Mr. Smith had hernia surgery yesterday and could be out for up to four weeks. Bi-weekly updates may be too frequent for the near future.
Casting about for other potential competitors to fill out the competition just underscores that these two players are unique and how disheartening are their efforts to normalize themselves. The other players who take and miss a significant number of three-pointers are generally playing hurt (Mike Bibby, Tracy McGrady) or generally ineffective (Antoine Walker, Stephen Jackson, Jamal Crawford in Larry Brown's absence). One might could make a case for a joint bid of Jason Kidd and Marcus Williams, but I cut Kidd some slack for occassionally having the ball in his hands as the shot clock winds down and shooting out of necessity rather than choice and I don't think Marcus Williams is very good.
Thus, the competition remains dual.
Through games of December 26th, 2006
Ron Artest: 19G, 19-72, 26.4%, 2.79 misses per game
Josh Smith: 25G, 19-70, 27.1%, 2.04 misses per game
Casting about for other potential competitors to fill out the competition just underscores that these two players are unique and how disheartening are their efforts to normalize themselves. The other players who take and miss a significant number of three-pointers are generally playing hurt (Mike Bibby, Tracy McGrady) or generally ineffective (Antoine Walker, Stephen Jackson, Jamal Crawford in Larry Brown's absence). One might could make a case for a joint bid of Jason Kidd and Marcus Williams, but I cut Kidd some slack for occassionally having the ball in his hands as the shot clock winds down and shooting out of necessity rather than choice and I don't think Marcus Williams is very good.
Thus, the competition remains dual.
Through games of December 26th, 2006
Ron Artest: 19G, 19-72, 26.4%, 2.79 misses per game
Josh Smith: 25G, 19-70, 27.1%, 2.04 misses per game
Thursday, December 21, 2006
PJ Tucker: Free?
Sam Mitchell may be coming around. Slowly.
PJ Tucker got his first meaningful minutes of the year last night against the Clippers playing the final 10 minutes of the second quarter. Tucker was 1-2 from the field, made his only free throw, grabbed three rebounds (two offensive), added three assists, and made only one turnover.
Then he didn't play in the second half.
Starters (*cough*) Kris Humphries and Joey Graham, who combined for seven points and six rebounds, no assists and one turnover in 18 first half minutes, were on the court to open the second half and helped turn an eight point Raptor halftime lead into a tie game half-way through the third quarter. The pair were replaced by Fred Jones and Andrea Bargnani and Toronto had a nine point lead by the end of the quarter.
Sam Mitchell, until I turned on the game last night, I assumed you didn't read Hoopinion. Now I'm not so sure. So, if you do, let me propose this: play PJ Tucker 15 to 20 minutes a night. If that seems like too much, remember, he's just one guy. You can still have either Humphries or Graham on the court if you really want to give some playing time to a young guy questing to achieve mediocrity in the NBA. Your second unit outplayed your starters last night. Hell, your second unit outplayed the Clippers' starters last night. Maybe they shouldn't be your second unit.
PJ Tucker got his first meaningful minutes of the year last night against the Clippers playing the final 10 minutes of the second quarter. Tucker was 1-2 from the field, made his only free throw, grabbed three rebounds (two offensive), added three assists, and made only one turnover.
Then he didn't play in the second half.
Starters (*cough*) Kris Humphries and Joey Graham, who combined for seven points and six rebounds, no assists and one turnover in 18 first half minutes, were on the court to open the second half and helped turn an eight point Raptor halftime lead into a tie game half-way through the third quarter. The pair were replaced by Fred Jones and Andrea Bargnani and Toronto had a nine point lead by the end of the quarter.
Sam Mitchell, until I turned on the game last night, I assumed you didn't read Hoopinion. Now I'm not so sure. So, if you do, let me propose this: play PJ Tucker 15 to 20 minutes a night. If that seems like too much, remember, he's just one guy. You can still have either Humphries or Graham on the court if you really want to give some playing time to a young guy questing to achieve mediocrity in the NBA. Your second unit outplayed your starters last night. Hell, your second unit outplayed the Clippers' starters last night. Maybe they shouldn't be your second unit.
Wednesday, December 20, 2006
Free PJ Tucker!
Last night in Phoenix, PJ Tucker got his first significant run since Toronto's first game of the year. It was garbage time to be sure, but who's to say they didn't get to garbage time in the first place because Sam Mitchell thinks that Joey Graham, Fred Jones, and Kris Humphries (DNP in Phoenix, but ahead of Tucker in the rotation generally) give the Raptors a better chance to be less bad than seven other bad Eastern Conference teams.
Graham has been somewhat improved this year, but he's still a one-dimensional player and there's nothing being accomplished beyond Mitchell setting the bar very low for his successor by using Graham and Jones behind Anthony Parker and Morris Peterson. The Kris Humphries preference is completely inexplicable.
This is a bad offensive team, next to last in the league in offensive rebounding and third from last in free throw rate. Tucker would immediately help in both those areas (though, to be fair, he would likely increase their turnover rate which currently sits third in the league).
November 1st, @ NJ: Tucker gets 8 minutes, scores 3 points (all on free throws) and gets 4 rebounds (1 offensive).
November 2nd-December 18th: Tucker plays in 8 of 23 games for a total of 23 minutes never playing more than 5 minutes in any one game. During this stretch he scores 4 points and grabs 2 rebounds (both offensive).
December 19th, @Phoenix: Tucker plays 19 minutes, scores 12 points and grabs 9 rebounds (4 offensive).
Graham has been somewhat improved this year, but he's still a one-dimensional player and there's nothing being accomplished beyond Mitchell setting the bar very low for his successor by using Graham and Jones behind Anthony Parker and Morris Peterson. The Kris Humphries preference is completely inexplicable.
This is a bad offensive team, next to last in the league in offensive rebounding and third from last in free throw rate. Tucker would immediately help in both those areas (though, to be fair, he would likely increase their turnover rate which currently sits third in the league).
November 1st, @ NJ: Tucker gets 8 minutes, scores 3 points (all on free throws) and gets 4 rebounds (1 offensive).
November 2nd-December 18th: Tucker plays in 8 of 23 games for a total of 23 minutes never playing more than 5 minutes in any one game. During this stretch he scores 4 points and grabs 2 rebounds (both offensive).
December 19th, @Phoenix: Tucker plays 19 minutes, scores 12 points and grabs 9 rebounds (4 offensive).
Monday, December 18, 2006
Performance in At-risk Games: Big 12 through 12/17/06
I've added a column for each team's won-lost record in at-risk games in an attempt to provide a little more easily digestible information in the team capsules.
Wins: vs. Auburn (+2), vs. Missouri State (+6), vs. Syracuse (+4), vs. Ball State (+33)
Obi Muonelo is expected to miss the rest of the season after breaking his ankle in practice on Saturday.
Anything that means Byron "I make Greg Paulus look competent" Eaton has to play more is bad for Oklahoma State in and of itself, but Muonelo was having a fine freshman season, at least when he wasn't attempting three-pointers (11-43, 25.6%). Muonelo was averaging 26.9 points per 100 possessions, 6.2 assists per 100 (against 5.3 TO/100), 3.5 steals per 100, and rebounding effectively on both ends of the court (7.2 OR%, 13.7 DR%).
Wins: vs. Ball State (+25), vs. Florida (+7), vs. Toledo (+16)
Losses: Oral Roberts (-14), @DePaul (-11)
Wins: @UTEP (+21), @TCU (+11), @Louisiana Tech (+17), vs. Arkansas (+25)
Losses: vs. Marquette (-16), vs. Air Force (-27), @Stanford (-13)
Wins: @St. John's (+3), vs. LSU (+2)
Losses: vs. Michigan State (-5), vs. Gonzaga (-11)
Win: Creighton (+17)
Losses: @Rutgers (-7), vs. Oregon (-26)
Wins: @Rutgers (+22), @North Dakota State (+3)
Losses: @New Mexico (-31), @California (-43), @Colorado State (-7)
Bill Walker's eligible. He's athletic. Everything is going to be fine.
Win: @Minnesota (+5)
Losses: @Northern Iowa (-19), Drake (-1), @Iowa (-27), vs. Bradley (-12)
Mike Taylor has only turned the ball over four times in total during Iowa State's last two games (vs. Bradley and home against Savannah State. He has maintained his breakneck pace of missing shots, though, going 7-23 from the field and bringing his year-to-date totals to 91 missed shots and 58 turnovers.
Win: vs. Colorado State (+6)
Losses: @Gonzaga (-16), South Carolina (-4), @Syracuse (-31)
Baylor's decent field-goal defense (50 eFG%) in at-risk games has been completely undone by the volume of offensive rebounds they surrender to their opponents (37.3%) and allowing their opponents to shot one free throw for every two field goals they attempt.
Losses: @LSU (-21), vs. UCLA (-5)
Texas A&M's offensive numbers in at-risk games are heavily deflated by virtue of the Aggies playing two fine defensive teams. Thoughts of contending for the Big 12 title should be tempered by the fact that, thus far, their best win is over either Saint Louis or Fordham in College Station.
Losses: vs. Memphis (-20), vs. Purdue (-5), Villanova (-20)
As of this writing, Ken Pomeroy has Oklahoma ranked 16th in the nation in adjusted pythagorean winning percentage. That's almost entirely a product of a small sample size (though a larger sample than the three games considered right here). Oklahoma's best win so far was at home against Liberty (140th in the nation per Pomeroy).
The next two weeks should give us a better idea as to whether Oklahoma can take advantage of the weak Big 12 and contend for an NCAA Tournament or will have to concern themselves simply with getting eligible for the NIT. They play Tulsa in Oklahoma City this week, have SMU in Norman for the last game of 2006, and open 2007 by going to Alabama and Texas Tech. I suspect that Oklahoma will be hard pressed to split those four games.
Win: @Utah (0)
Losses: @New Mexico (-55), Air Force (-57), Wyoming (-4), @UNC-Wilmington (-14), Pepperdine (-10), Colorado State (-8)
I had accidentally left the stats from the game @UNC-Wilmington out Colorado's at-risk totals in the previous entries in this series. That error has now been corrected.
Loss: @Purdue (-23)
| Team | Record | Off Eff | Def Eff | Diff |
| Oklahoma State | 4-0 | 107 | 95 | +12 |
Wins: vs. Auburn (+2), vs. Missouri State (+6), vs. Syracuse (+4), vs. Ball State (+33)
Obi Muonelo is expected to miss the rest of the season after breaking his ankle in practice on Saturday.
Anything that means Byron "I make Greg Paulus look competent" Eaton has to play more is bad for Oklahoma State in and of itself, but Muonelo was having a fine freshman season, at least when he wasn't attempting three-pointers (11-43, 25.6%). Muonelo was averaging 26.9 points per 100 possessions, 6.2 assists per 100 (against 5.3 TO/100), 3.5 steals per 100, and rebounding effectively on both ends of the court (7.2 OR%, 13.7 DR%).
| Team | Record | Off Eff | Def Eff | Diff |
| Kansas | 3-2 | 101 | 96 | +5 |
Wins: vs. Ball State (+25), vs. Florida (+7), vs. Toledo (+16)
Losses: Oral Roberts (-14), @DePaul (-11)
| Team | Record | Off Eff | Def Eff | Diff |
| Texas Tech | 4-3 | 105 | 102 | +3 |
Wins: @UTEP (+21), @TCU (+11), @Louisiana Tech (+17), vs. Arkansas (+25)
Losses: vs. Marquette (-16), vs. Air Force (-27), @Stanford (-13)
| Team | Record | Off Eff | Def Eff | Diff |
| Texas | 2-2 | 103 | 106 | -3 |
Wins: @St. John's (+3), vs. LSU (+2)
Losses: vs. Michigan State (-5), vs. Gonzaga (-11)
| Team | Record | Off Eff | Def Eff | Diff |
| Nebraska | 1-2 | 109 | 114 | -5 |
Win: Creighton (+17)
Losses: @Rutgers (-7), vs. Oregon (-26)
| Team | Record | Off Eff | Def Eff | Diff |
| Kansas State | 2-3 | 96 | 107 | -11 |
Wins: @Rutgers (+22), @North Dakota State (+3)
Losses: @New Mexico (-31), @California (-43), @Colorado State (-7)
Bill Walker's eligible. He's athletic. Everything is going to be fine.
| Team | Record | Off Eff | Def Eff | Diff |
| Iowa State | 1-4 | 97 | 108 | -11 |
Win: @Minnesota (+5)
Losses: @Northern Iowa (-19), Drake (-1), @Iowa (-27), vs. Bradley (-12)
Mike Taylor has only turned the ball over four times in total during Iowa State's last two games (vs. Bradley and home against Savannah State. He has maintained his breakneck pace of missing shots, though, going 7-23 from the field and bringing his year-to-date totals to 91 missed shots and 58 turnovers.
| Team | Record | Off Eff | Def Eff | Diff |
| Baylor | 1-3 | 99 | 111 | -12 |
Win: vs. Colorado State (+6)
Losses: @Gonzaga (-16), South Carolina (-4), @Syracuse (-31)
Baylor's decent field-goal defense (50 eFG%) in at-risk games has been completely undone by the volume of offensive rebounds they surrender to their opponents (37.3%) and allowing their opponents to shot one free throw for every two field goals they attempt.
| Team | Record | Off Eff | Def Eff | Diff |
| Texas A&M | 0-2 | 92 | 105 | -13 |
Losses: @LSU (-21), vs. UCLA (-5)
Texas A&M's offensive numbers in at-risk games are heavily deflated by virtue of the Aggies playing two fine defensive teams. Thoughts of contending for the Big 12 title should be tempered by the fact that, thus far, their best win is over either Saint Louis or Fordham in College Station.
| Team | Record | Off Eff | Def Eff | Diff |
| Oklahoma | 0-3 | 87 | 103 | -16 |
Losses: vs. Memphis (-20), vs. Purdue (-5), Villanova (-20)
As of this writing, Ken Pomeroy has Oklahoma ranked 16th in the nation in adjusted pythagorean winning percentage. That's almost entirely a product of a small sample size (though a larger sample than the three games considered right here). Oklahoma's best win so far was at home against Liberty (140th in the nation per Pomeroy).
The next two weeks should give us a better idea as to whether Oklahoma can take advantage of the weak Big 12 and contend for an NCAA Tournament or will have to concern themselves simply with getting eligible for the NIT. They play Tulsa in Oklahoma City this week, have SMU in Norman for the last game of 2006, and open 2007 by going to Alabama and Texas Tech. I suspect that Oklahoma will be hard pressed to split those four games.
| Team | Record | Off Eff | Def Eff | Diff |
| Colorado | 1-6 | 86 | 107 | -21 |
Win: @Utah (0)
Losses: @New Mexico (-55), Air Force (-57), Wyoming (-4), @UNC-Wilmington (-14), Pepperdine (-10), Colorado State (-8)
I had accidentally left the stats from the game @UNC-Wilmington out Colorado's at-risk totals in the previous entries in this series. That error has now been corrected.
| Team | Record | Off Eff | Def Eff | Diff |
| Missouri | 0-1 | 80 | 103 | -23 |
Loss: @Purdue (-23)
Friday, December 15, 2006
Performance in At-risk Games: National Overview through 12/14/06
For the last couple of years, my NCAA Tournament predictions have been centered around looking at how the teams performed in what I categorized as at-risk games: road and neutral games, home games against NCAA Tournament teams, and home losses. It's been a fairly effective tool when used at that time of the year so this season I'm curious as to whether categorizing games thusly tells us anything useful.
Generally, you'd want to include as much information as possible, but I'm guessing that winning guarantee games at home doesn't tell you much about college basketball teams. Plus, tracking these at-risk games allows you to watch teams build their NCAA resumes from scratch.
Obviously, all at-risk games are not created equally so I'll provide more information than just the numbers. I am listing teams in order of efficiency margin (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) simply as an organizational choice. These are not rankings.
Big 12 teams are listed here.
Wins: vs. Long Beach State (+5), @Stanford (+63), @Colorado (+57), vs. Texas Tech (+27), vs. Wake Forest (+57)
Loss: vs. Duke (-25)
Wins: vs. Arkansas State (+50), vs. Monmouth (+13), at Old Dominion (+5), @Minnesota (+30), @South Carolina (+29)
Wins: vs. College of Charleston (+18), vs. Iowa (+46), @Stony Brook (+44), vs. Penn (+14), @Oklahoma (+20)
Losses: vs. Xavier (-7), Drexel (-5)
Two really poor defensive performances by the Wildcats in Philadelphia against Penn (120 pts per 100 possessions) and Drexel (117 pts per 100 possessions) on either side of their defensive domination @Oklahoma (76 pts per 100 possessions) doesn't bode well for the Sooners going forward.
Wins: @Tulane (+70), vs. Notre Dame (+3), vs. Indiana (+8), vs. Tennessee (+17), vs. Gonzaga (+16), @ Valparaiso (+20)
Loss: @Indiana State (-13)
Butler finally lost away from home with an uncharacteristically poor defensive performance (117 pts per 100 possessions) against the Sycamores.
The win @Tulane is inflating Butler's overall at-risk numbers but keep in mind that LSU played @Tulane as well and were only +8.
Wins: vs. Lafayette (+43), vs. Maryland (+9), Alabama (+15)
Loss: vs. Butler (-5)
Wins: @Rice (+8), @Georgetown (+10), vs. Nebraska (+26)
I put the over/under on Oregon wins in conference play at 10.5. If they keep on playing defense like this, I'll be shocked.
Wins: vs. Western Michigan (+21), @Auburn (+15), @Buffalo (+9)
This is an excellent offensive basketball team just a notch (I suspect) below Florida, Arizona, Ohio State, and Air Force.
Wins: @Oregon State (+43), @Santa Clara (+16), @Louisiana-Lafayette (+17), vs. California (+11)
Loss: UNLV (-15)
I'm inclined to believe that the loss to UNLV was extreme outlier, a perfect storm of poor shooting (35.7 eFG%) and turnovers (31.9%) that sabotaged another fine defensive performance.
Wins: vs. Illinois (+14), vs. Louisville (+12), @San Diego State (+34)
Loss @Virginia (-11)
Louisville and San Diego State aren't very good teams right now but it marked very real progress for Arizona to guard anybody effectively.
Wins: vs.Kentucky (+5), vs. Georgia Tech (+26), vs. UCLA (+5)
The Bruins are off of last year's standards for rebounding and defensive field goal percentage. Their room for improvement in those areas only reinforces my suspicion that there will be a significant gulf between the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the Pac-10.
Wins: @George Mason (+11), @LSU (+9), @Syracuse (+4), vs. Wyoming (+22)
Those are some very encouraging offensive numbers to be posting away from home.
Win: vs. Western Kentucky (+40)
Losses: vs. Kansas (-7), @Florida State (-3)
Wins: vs. Middle Tennessee State (+15), vs. Iowa (+16), vs. Xavier (+15)
Loss: @Notre Dame (-15)
Wins: vs. Wisconsin (+10), @UNC-Wilmington (+23)
Loss: vs. Oklahoma State (-6)
That is the profile of a team that Oklahoma State is using to prop up their decent start to the season. Missouri State might turn out to be the best team in the MVC, but they haven't accomplished much so far.
EMPTY THREAT ALERT: If the athletic department doesn't get their website up soon, I may refrain from updating Missouri State's profile until they make the tournament (if applicable).
Wins: vs. Winthrop (+13), vs. Tennessee (+12), Ohio State (+17)
Loss: vs. Gonzaga (-10)
Wins: vs. Auburn (+24), @Marquette (+5)
Loss: vs. Missouri State (-10)
Wins: vs. Texas Tech (+16), vs. Duke (+21), @Valparaiso (+4)
Losses: North Dakota State (-6), Wisconsin (-5)
I wouldn't want my team drawn opposite James, McNeal, and Matthews come tournament time but getting there will be a roller coaster ride for Marquette fans. This is a perimeter-dominated effort on both ends of the floor.
Wins: @St. John's (+41), vs. Michigan State (+4), @Illinois (+7)
Loss vs. Notre Dame (-9), @Boston College (-20)
Wins: vs. Fordham (+12), vs. UNC-Wilmington (+16), @Louisiana-Lafayette (+10), Memphis (+26)
Losses: vs. Butler (-18), vs. North Carolina (-15)
Win: Arizona (+11)
Loss: @Purdue (-1)
Wins: vs. UNC (+10), vs. Texas (+11), Washington (+30)
Losses: vs. Butler (-17), @Washington State (-14)
I'll give the Zags Washington at home right now but only with the caveat that the Huskies have done nothing to suggest that they're a good team yet this year.
Win: Texas A&M (+21)
Losses: Wichita State (-9), vs. Texas (-2)
LSU isn't a good offensive team against quality opposition but they appear primed to spoil the NCAA Tournament of a team that relies on outscoring their opponents.
Win: vs. Lafayette (+32)
Losses: vs. Butler (-8), @Duke (-6), @Kentucky (-8)
The Hoosiers are new to the at-risk listings this week. I see a lot more close losses in their future. They failed to top 88 pts per 100 possessions in any of their three close losses. You just can't win many games scoring that inefficiently. They're playing good defense, though.
Wins: Michigan State (+12), @UMass (+15), Maryland (+20)
Losses: Vermont (-23), @Providence (-15)
New this week, Boston College is even with their opponents in at-risk in both field goal shooting and turnover percentage, they trail in offensive rebounding (they're allowing opponents to get 44.6% of possible offensive rebounds), but they're making it up at the free throw line by converting more free throws per field goal attempt than their opponents attempt.
Wins: vs. Louisville (+7), Creighton (+7)
Loss: @SMU (-10)
Win: vs. Air Force (+25)
Loss: vs. Marquette (-21)
Andy Glockner just wrote a piece at ESPN.com arguing that Duke's offense is better than it looks according to traditional statistics:
The turnover problem is really, really bad thus far for Duke (26.8% in all games, 29.6% in at-risk games) mostly due to Greg Paulus about whom Glockner writes the following:
If Duke improves it will be becuase Josh McRoberts feels healthier and Gerald Henderson and Lance Thomas become consistent contributors.
Win: vs. Texas (+5), vs. BYU (+20)
Losses: vs. Maryland (-5), @Boston College (-12)
Win: @Canisius (+20)
Losses: Wichita State (-4), vs. Oklahoma State (-9)
Wins: Oklahoma (+20), Kentucky (+18)
Losses: vs. Georgia Tech (-9), @Tennessee (-26)
Wins: vs. Miami, OH (+6), vs. Bradley (+7), vs. Illinois-Chicago (+7)
Losses: Maryland (-7), vs. Arizona (-14)
Of all the Illini players who have missed time through injury or suspension so far this year, I think that a healthy and productive Jamar Smith will be most necessary for the team to remain above Purdue, Indiana, and Michigan in Big 10 play.
Wins: @Vanderbilt (+19), @Fairfield (+23)
Losses: Old Dominion (-26), Oregon (-10), @Duke (-14)
Wins: vs. Oklahoma (+5), vs. DePaul (+16)
Loss: vs. Georgia Tech (-25)
Wins: vs. Purdue (+25), vs. Memphis (+9)
Losses: vs. UCLA (-26), @Miami, FL (-10), @Vanderbilt (-16)
Georgia Tech finally had a bad offensive game and things got ugly, losing @Vanderbilt to a 4-3 team whose previous best win was in overtime at home against Toledo. Vanderbilt lost at home to Furman already this year.
Watching Tech would be a good idea for the more mercurial Kansas fans so they could witness what a talented without an identity looks like. Tech has gone from potentially dangerous tournament team to a team that needs to buckle down to make the field. Paul Hewitt has always struck me as a good coach (that he's a terrifically nice man certainly colors my impression of him) but I'm starting to take the doubts of Tech fans concerning their head coach more seriously.
Wins: vs. VCU (+4), vs. Villanova (+7)
Losses: vs. Alabama (-15), @Cincinnati (-18)
I don't think we'll be seeing the Muskateers back in the Top 25 this year.
Loss: @North Carolina (-17)
Allow me to repeat what I wrote last week:
Loss: @Gonzaga (-30)
It's only one game, but anyone who was paying attention saw it coming. LSU at home and a road trip to Los Angeles still await the Huskies prior to the new year.
Play somebody.
Generally, you'd want to include as much information as possible, but I'm guessing that winning guarantee games at home doesn't tell you much about college basketball teams. Plus, tracking these at-risk games allows you to watch teams build their NCAA resumes from scratch.
Obviously, all at-risk games are not created equally so I'll provide more information than just the numbers. I am listing teams in order of efficiency margin (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) simply as an organizational choice. These are not rankings.
Big 12 teams are listed here.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Air Force | 124 | 93 | +31 |
Wins: vs. Long Beach State (+5), @Stanford (+63), @Colorado (+57), vs. Texas Tech (+27), vs. Wake Forest (+57)
Loss: vs. Duke (-25)
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Clemson | 113 | 87 | +26 |
Wins: vs. Arkansas State (+50), vs. Monmouth (+13), at Old Dominion (+5), @Minnesota (+30), @South Carolina (+29)
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Villanova | 115 | 96 | +19 |
Wins: vs. College of Charleston (+18), vs. Iowa (+46), @Stony Brook (+44), vs. Penn (+14), @Oklahoma (+20)
Losses: vs. Xavier (-7), Drexel (-5)
Two really poor defensive performances by the Wildcats in Philadelphia against Penn (120 pts per 100 possessions) and Drexel (117 pts per 100 possessions) on either side of their defensive domination @Oklahoma (76 pts per 100 possessions) doesn't bode well for the Sooners going forward.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Butler | 108 | 91 | +17 |
Wins: @Tulane (+70), vs. Notre Dame (+3), vs. Indiana (+8), vs. Tennessee (+17), vs. Gonzaga (+16), @ Valparaiso (+20)
Loss: @Indiana State (-13)
Butler finally lost away from home with an uncharacteristically poor defensive performance (117 pts per 100 possessions) against the Sycamores.
The win @Tulane is inflating Butler's overall at-risk numbers but keep in mind that LSU played @Tulane as well and were only +8.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Notre Dame | 116 | 100 | +16 |
Wins: vs. Lafayette (+43), vs. Maryland (+9), Alabama (+15)
Loss: vs. Butler (-5)
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Oregon | 103 | 88 | +15 |
Wins: @Rice (+8), @Georgetown (+10), vs. Nebraska (+26)
I put the over/under on Oregon wins in conference play at 10.5. If they keep on playing defense like this, I'll be shocked.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Pittsburgh | 115 | 100 | +15 |
Wins: vs. Western Michigan (+21), @Auburn (+15), @Buffalo (+9)
This is an excellent offensive basketball team just a notch (I suspect) below Florida, Arizona, Ohio State, and Air Force.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Nevada | 108 | 94 | +14 |
Wins: @Oregon State (+43), @Santa Clara (+16), @Louisiana-Lafayette (+17), vs. California (+11)
Loss: UNLV (-15)
I'm inclined to believe that the loss to UNLV was extreme outlier, a perfect storm of poor shooting (35.7 eFG%) and turnovers (31.9%) that sabotaged another fine defensive performance.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Arizona | 112 | 100 | +12 |
Wins: vs. Illinois (+14), vs. Louisville (+12), @San Diego State (+34)
Loss @Virginia (-11)
Louisville and San Diego State aren't very good teams right now but it marked very real progress for Arizona to guard anybody effectively.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| UCLA | 114 | 102 | +12 |
Wins: vs.Kentucky (+5), vs. Georgia Tech (+26), vs. UCLA (+5)
The Bruins are off of last year's standards for rebounding and defensive field goal percentage. Their room for improvement in those areas only reinforces my suspicion that there will be a significant gulf between the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the Pac-10.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Wichita State | 107 | 95 | +12 |
Wins: @George Mason (+11), @LSU (+9), @Syracuse (+4), vs. Wyoming (+22)
Those are some very encouraging offensive numbers to be posting away from home.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Florida | 117 | 107 | +10 |
Win: vs. Western Kentucky (+40)
Losses: vs. Kansas (-7), @Florida State (-3)
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Alabama | 110 | 102 | +8 |
Wins: vs. Middle Tennessee State (+15), vs. Iowa (+16), vs. Xavier (+15)
Loss: @Notre Dame (-15)
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Missouri State | 106 | 98 | +8 |
Wins: vs. Wisconsin (+10), @UNC-Wilmington (+23)
Loss: vs. Oklahoma State (-6)
That is the profile of a team that Oklahoma State is using to prop up their decent start to the season. Missouri State might turn out to be the best team in the MVC, but they haven't accomplished much so far.
EMPTY THREAT ALERT: If the athletic department doesn't get their website up soon, I may refrain from updating Missouri State's profile until they make the tournament (if applicable).
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| North Carolina | 113 | 105 | +8 |
Wins: vs. Winthrop (+13), vs. Tennessee (+12), Ohio State (+17)
Loss: vs. Gonzaga (-10)
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Wisconsin | 99 | 93 | +6 |
Wins: vs. Auburn (+24), @Marquette (+5)
Loss: vs. Missouri State (-10)
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Marquette | 100 | 95 | +5 |
Wins: vs. Texas Tech (+16), vs. Duke (+21), @Valparaiso (+4)
Losses: North Dakota State (-6), Wisconsin (-5)
I wouldn't want my team drawn opposite James, McNeal, and Matthews come tournament time but getting there will be a roller coaster ride for Marquette fans. This is a perimeter-dominated effort on both ends of the floor.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Maryland | 102 | 97 | +5 |
Wins: @St. John's (+41), vs. Michigan State (+4), @Illinois (+7)
Loss vs. Notre Dame (-9), @Boston College (-20)
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Tennessee | 98 | 93 | +5 |
Wins: vs. Fordham (+12), vs. UNC-Wilmington (+16), @Louisiana-Lafayette (+10), Memphis (+26)
Losses: vs. Butler (-18), vs. North Carolina (-15)
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Virginia | 112 | 107 | +5 |
Win: Arizona (+11)
Loss: @Purdue (-1)
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Gonzaga | 114 | 110 | +4 |
Wins: vs. UNC (+10), vs. Texas (+11), Washington (+30)
Losses: vs. Butler (-17), @Washington State (-14)
I'll give the Zags Washington at home right now but only with the caveat that the Huskies have done nothing to suggest that they're a good team yet this year.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| LSU | 98 | 94 | +4 |
Win: Texas A&M (+21)
Losses: Wichita State (-9), vs. Texas (-2)
LSU isn't a good offensive team against quality opposition but they appear primed to spoil the NCAA Tournament of a team that relies on outscoring their opponents.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Indiana | 94 | 91 | +3 |
Win: vs. Lafayette (+32)
Losses: vs. Butler (-8), @Duke (-6), @Kentucky (-8)
The Hoosiers are new to the at-risk listings this week. I see a lot more close losses in their future. They failed to top 88 pts per 100 possessions in any of their three close losses. You just can't win many games scoring that inefficiently. They're playing good defense, though.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Boston College | 102 | 100 | +2 |
Wins: Michigan State (+12), @UMass (+15), Maryland (+20)
Losses: Vermont (-23), @Providence (-15)
New this week, Boston College is even with their opponents in at-risk in both field goal shooting and turnover percentage, they trail in offensive rebounding (they're allowing opponents to get 44.6% of possible offensive rebounds), but they're making it up at the free throw line by converting more free throws per field goal attempt than their opponents attempt.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Dayton | 96 | 94 | +2 |
Wins: vs. Louisville (+7), Creighton (+7)
Loss: @SMU (-10)
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Duke | 110 | 108 | +2 |
Win: vs. Air Force (+25)
Loss: vs. Marquette (-21)
Andy Glockner just wrote a piece at ESPN.com arguing that Duke's offense is better than it looks according to traditional statistics:
In other words, Duke is getting seven fewer possessions a game than last season. Given that the Blue Devils' effective field-goal percentage (including the impact of 3s being worth 50 percent more than a 2) is 53.7 percent and they get 38.6 percent of all offensive rebounds, Duke -- even with its high turnover rate -- is losing about six or seven points a game off the scoreboard solely because of the reduced pace of its games.I think that the reason people think that Duke's offense is perceived to be worse than usual is that it has been outside of the win (their only quality win so far) over Air Force in Kansas City. The Blue Devils were at or below 1 point per possession at home against Georgia Southern, in their loss to Marquette, at home against Indiana and at home against Holy Cross. That's 40-percent of their games, none of them true road games.
The turnover problem is really, really bad thus far for Duke (26.8% in all games, 29.6% in at-risk games) mostly due to Greg Paulus about whom Glockner writes the following:
As Paulus, one of the biggest culprits this season, averaging 3.4 turnovers (against only 3.7 assists) in under 26 minutes a game, regains full game fitness and the underclassmen playing in new, expanded roles get more comfortable with each other, the turnover problems could ease.The sad truth (if you're a Duke fan or a fan of good point guard play) is that Paulus is playing better than last year so the injury excuse doesn't reall hold water. He's shooting the ball well from behind the arc (43.5% on 23 attempts) and the line (87.5%) and his assist-to-turnover ratio is slightly better than 1:1 (9:8.3 per 100 possessions). Over the next two-and-a-half years Paulus could reduce turnovers slightly but I doubt he'll ever make significant improvement as a defender where his inadequacy hurts Duke every bit as much as do his turnovers.
If Duke improves it will be becuase Josh McRoberts feels healthier and Gerald Henderson and Lance Thomas become consistent contributors.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Michigan State | 101 | 99 | +2 |
Win: vs. Texas (+5), vs. BYU (+20)
Losses: vs. Maryland (-5), @Boston College (-12)
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Syracuse | 103 | 101 | +2 |
Win: @Canisius (+20)
Losses: Wichita State (-4), vs. Oklahoma State (-9)
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Memphis | 100 | 99 | +1 |
Wins: Oklahoma (+20), Kentucky (+18)
Losses: vs. Georgia Tech (-9), @Tennessee (-26)
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Illinois | 102 | 102 | 0 |
Wins: vs. Miami, OH (+6), vs. Bradley (+7), vs. Illinois-Chicago (+7)
Losses: Maryland (-7), vs. Arizona (-14)
Of all the Illini players who have missed time through injury or suspension so far this year, I think that a healthy and productive Jamar Smith will be most necessary for the team to remain above Purdue, Indiana, and Michigan in Big 10 play.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Georgetown | 104 | 105 | -1 |
Wins: @Vanderbilt (+19), @Fairfield (+23)
Losses: Old Dominion (-26), Oregon (-10), @Duke (-14)
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Purdue | 106 | 107 | -1 |
Wins: vs. Oklahoma (+5), vs. DePaul (+16)
Loss: vs. Georgia Tech (-25)
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Georgia Tech | 110 | 114 | -4 |
Wins: vs. Purdue (+25), vs. Memphis (+9)
Losses: vs. UCLA (-26), @Miami, FL (-10), @Vanderbilt (-16)
Georgia Tech finally had a bad offensive game and things got ugly, losing @Vanderbilt to a 4-3 team whose previous best win was in overtime at home against Toledo. Vanderbilt lost at home to Furman already this year.
Watching Tech would be a good idea for the more mercurial Kansas fans so they could witness what a talented without an identity looks like. Tech has gone from potentially dangerous tournament team to a team that needs to buckle down to make the field. Paul Hewitt has always struck me as a good coach (that he's a terrifically nice man certainly colors my impression of him) but I'm starting to take the doubts of Tech fans concerning their head coach more seriously.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Xavier | 97 | 102 | -5 |
Wins: vs. VCU (+4), vs. Villanova (+7)
Losses: vs. Alabama (-15), @Cincinnati (-18)
I don't think we'll be seeing the Muskateers back in the Top 25 this year.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Ohio State | 116 | 133 | -17 |
Loss: @North Carolina (-17)
Allow me to repeat what I wrote last week:
Obviously, we're suffering from a lack of data points here. From my (limited) observation, Ohio State is the second most likely team, at this early point in the season, to reach the Final Four.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Washington | 102 | 132 | -30 |
Loss: @Gonzaga (-30)
It's only one game, but anyone who was paying attention saw it coming. LSU at home and a road trip to Los Angeles still await the Huskies prior to the new year.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| UConn | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Wednesday, December 13, 2006
The Ron Artest/Josh Smith Three-Pont Shootout, Eleven Shopping Days Left Edition
I missed the Hawks/Kings game on Sunday night (being otherwise occupied) but Smith and Artest put on a clinic of self-abnegation, combining to go but 1-4 from three-point range.
To be fair, Antoine Walker (22.1%, 3.35 misses per game) puts both of our official competitors to shame, but Walker's poor shooting isn't suppressing his otherwise considerable value. He's just a bad basketball player at this point in his life.
Standings through December 12th
Ron Artest: 16G, 15-60, 25%, 2.81 misses per game
Josh Smith: 20G, 16-61, 26.2%, 2.25 misses per game
To be fair, Antoine Walker (22.1%, 3.35 misses per game) puts both of our official competitors to shame, but Walker's poor shooting isn't suppressing his otherwise considerable value. He's just a bad basketball player at this point in his life.
Standings through December 12th
Ron Artest: 16G, 15-60, 25%, 2.81 misses per game
Josh Smith: 20G, 16-61, 26.2%, 2.25 misses per game
Monday, December 11, 2006
Performance in At-risk Games: Big 12 through 12/10/06
Not much commentary due to the short turnaround to get this week's update ready for its soon-to-be customary Monday appearance.
Wins: vs. Auburn (+2), vs. Missouri State (+6), vs. Syracuse (+4), vs. Ball State (+33)
Wins: vs. Ball State (+25), vs. Florida (+7), vs. Toledo (+16)
Losses: Oral Roberts (-14), @DePaul (-11)
Wins: @UTEP (+21), @TCU (+11), @Louisiana Tech (+17)
Losses: vs. Marquette (-16), vs. Air Force (-27), @Stanford (-13)
Wins: @St. John's (+3), vs. LSU (+2)
Losses: vs. Michigan State (-5), vs. Gonzaga (-11)
Win: vs. Colorado State (+6)
Loss: @Gonzaga (-16), South Carolina (-4)
Win: Creighton (+17)
Losses: @Rutgers (-7), vs. Oregon (-26)
Win: @Minnesota (+5)
Losses: @Northern Iowa (-19), Drake (-1), @Iowa (-27)
Mike Taylor is putting Byron Eaton to shame. Last year's conference turnover king actually has a positive assist-to-turnover ratio and is coughing the ball up relatively rarely (7.3 TO/100). Taylor has yet to turn the ball over fewer than four times in a game and has turned the ball over at least eight times in half of Iowa State's games. That's good for 12.3 TO/100 on the season. Taylor complements those turnovers with a lot of missed shots. He's shot the three pretty well (18-48, 37.5%) but he's made just 34.8% of the 69 two-point shots he's attempted. That's a conversion rate lower than Russell Robinson. All in all, Taylor is the early favorite to give the ball to the other team, one way or another, more often than anybody in the Big 12 this year.
Wins: @Rutgers (+22), @North Dakota State (+3)
Losses: @New Mexico (-31), @California (-43), @Colorado State (-7)
Kansas State's narrow win @North Dakota State marked the third straight game wherein Kansas State scored at least 118 points per 100 possessions. It was also the third straight road game wherein the Wildacts allowed at least 117 points per 100 possessions.
Losses: @LSU (-21), vs. UCLA (-5)
Losses: vs. Memphis (-20), vs. Purdue (-5), Villanova (-20)
Win: @Utah (0)
Losses: @New Mexico (-55), Air Force (-57), Wyoming (-4), @UNC-Wilmington (-14), Pepperdine (-10), Colorado State (-8)
Loss: @Purdue (-23)
Missouri's margin of defeat @Purdue could have been worse. Carl Landry missed nine free throws for the Boilermakers.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Oklahoma State | 107 | 95 | +12 |
Wins: vs. Auburn (+2), vs. Missouri State (+6), vs. Syracuse (+4), vs. Ball State (+33)
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Kansas | 101 | 96 | +5 |
Wins: vs. Ball State (+25), vs. Florida (+7), vs. Toledo (+16)
Losses: Oral Roberts (-14), @DePaul (-11)
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Texas Tech | 104 | 105 | -1 |
Wins: @UTEP (+21), @TCU (+11), @Louisiana Tech (+17)
Losses: vs. Marquette (-16), vs. Air Force (-27), @Stanford (-13)
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Texas | 103 | 106 | -3 |
Wins: @St. John's (+3), vs. LSU (+2)
Losses: vs. Michigan State (-5), vs. Gonzaga (-11)
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Baylor | 101 | 106 | -5 |
Win: vs. Colorado State (+6)
Loss: @Gonzaga (-16), South Carolina (-4)
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Nebraska | 109 | 114 | -5 |
Win: Creighton (+17)
Losses: @Rutgers (-7), vs. Oregon (-26)
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Iowa State | 96 | 107 | -11 |
Win: @Minnesota (+5)
Losses: @Northern Iowa (-19), Drake (-1), @Iowa (-27)
Mike Taylor is putting Byron Eaton to shame. Last year's conference turnover king actually has a positive assist-to-turnover ratio and is coughing the ball up relatively rarely (7.3 TO/100). Taylor has yet to turn the ball over fewer than four times in a game and has turned the ball over at least eight times in half of Iowa State's games. That's good for 12.3 TO/100 on the season. Taylor complements those turnovers with a lot of missed shots. He's shot the three pretty well (18-48, 37.5%) but he's made just 34.8% of the 69 two-point shots he's attempted. That's a conversion rate lower than Russell Robinson. All in all, Taylor is the early favorite to give the ball to the other team, one way or another, more often than anybody in the Big 12 this year.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Kansas State | 96 | 107 | -11 |
Wins: @Rutgers (+22), @North Dakota State (+3)
Losses: @New Mexico (-31), @California (-43), @Colorado State (-7)
Kansas State's narrow win @North Dakota State marked the third straight game wherein Kansas State scored at least 118 points per 100 possessions. It was also the third straight road game wherein the Wildacts allowed at least 117 points per 100 possessions.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Texas A&M | 92 | 105 | -13 |
Losses: @LSU (-21), vs. UCLA (-5)
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Oklahoma | 87 | 103 | -16 |
Losses: vs. Memphis (-20), vs. Purdue (-5), Villanova (-20)
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Colorado | 87 | 109 | -22 |
Win: @Utah (0)
Losses: @New Mexico (-55), Air Force (-57), Wyoming (-4), @UNC-Wilmington (-14), Pepperdine (-10), Colorado State (-8)
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Missouri | 80 | 103 | -23 |
Loss: @Purdue (-23)
Missouri's margin of defeat @Purdue could have been worse. Carl Landry missed nine free throws for the Boilermakers.
Friday, December 08, 2006
Performance in At-risk Games: National Overview through 12/7/06
As introduced yesterday with the Big 12 teams, here's a national look at how teams have performed in at-risk games.
These are all the teams I have updated through yesterday. If you're interested in a team that's missing, use the comments and I'll try to have them added by next week.
Starting next week, look for the national overview every Friday and the Big 12 every Monday.
For the last couple of years, my NCAA Tournament predictions have been centered around looking at how the teams performed in what I categorized as at-risk games: road and neutral games, home games against NCAA Tournament teams, and home losses. It's been a fairly effective tool when used at that time of the year so this season I'm curious as to whether categorizing games thusly tells us anything useful.
Generally, you'd want to include as much information as possible, but I'm guessing that winning guarantee games at home doesn't tell you much about college basketball teams. Plus, tracking these at-risk games allows you to watch teams build their NCAA resumes from scratch.
Obviously, all at-risk games are not created equally so I'll provide more information than just the numbers. I am listing teams in order of efficiency margin (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) simply as an organizational choice. These are not rankings.
Wins: vs. Long Beach State (+5), @Stanford (+63), @Colorado (+57), vs. Texas Tech (+27), vs. Wake Forest (+57)
Loss: vs. Duke (-25)
The Falcons will probably struggle against the nation's most athletic and defensive-minded teams, but the manner in which they have destroyed the mediocre-to-poor major conference teams they've played suggests that this is an awfully effective offensive team.
Wins: vs. Arkansas State (+50), vs. Monmouth (+13), at Old Dominion (+5), @Minnesota (+30), @South Carolina (+29)
Clemson's been getting a bit of mainstream attention for their 10-0 start. Getting an opposing coach to quit after he loses to you will do that. Following the win @Minnesota with an equally decisive win @South Carolina is best thing on their resume, but they may not play another at-risk game until they open ACC play.
Wins: @Tulane (+70), vs. Notre Dame (+3), vs. Indiana (+8), vs. Tennessee (+17), vs. Gonzaga (+16), @ Valparaiso (+20)
Without that narrow win over Notre Dame in the first round of the Preseason NIT, we'd have no idea how good Butler is. I think that Butler's defensive efficiency number above is pretty accurate. Sure, it reflects dominating performances @Tulane and @Valparaiso, but they've also played the potent offenses of Notre Dame and Gonzaga.
Wins: vs. College of Charleston (+18), vs. Iowa (+46), @Stony Brook (+44), vs. Penn (+14), @Oklahoma (+20)
Loss: vs. Xavier (-7)
It's not a great collection of wins, but the margins of those victories is intriguing.
Wins: @Oregon State (+43), @Santa Clara (+16), @Louisiana-Lafayette (+17), vs. California (+11)
No great wins yet, but I suspect the Wolfpack are for real offensively as long as Fazekas is in the lineup. I am unlikely, however, to pick them (or any 4 or 5 seed) to go to the Final Four again this year.
Wins: vs. Western Michigan (+21), @Auburn (+15)
Upcoming games @Wisconsin, vs. Oklahoma State, and home to Dayton will give us much-needed additional data to evaluate the Panthers.
Wins: vs. Lafayette (+43), vs. Maryland (+9), Alabama (+15)
Loss: vs. Butler (-5)
Take out the Lafayette game and they're +6 on the season which is a much more appropriate way to look at their potential. Excellent offense, regardless.
Wins: vs.Kentucky (+5), vs. Georgia Tech (+26)
UCLA's probably pretty good, but we don't have sufficient evidence to say so with much certainty.
Wins: @St. John's (+41), vs. Michigan State (+4), @Illinois (+7)
Loss vs. Notre Dame (-9)
Their at-risk profile is living off of the blowout win against St. John's in MSG. That will likely remain at outlier, but the Terps should continue to be far better than anyone who shoots 32.8 eFG% against them for an entire game and they look capable of becoming a good defensive team.
Win: vs. Western Kentucky (+40)
Losses: vs. Kansas (-7), @Florida State (-3)
While it's true that Florida lacks a good win thus far, I think it's a little early to consider them anything other than the favorite to win the National Championship. (As long as you include the caveat that Wichita State and Butler are far and away the two most impressive teams so far this year and that nobody appears to have a very good chance of winning the National Championship at this point.)
That the Gators could give up points so easily to Kansas and Florida State is the only real concern going forward.
Wins: vs. Texas Tech (+16), vs. Duke (+21), @Valparaiso (+4)
Loss: North Dakota State (-6)
Marquette had a complete offensive collapse against North Dakota State (0.83 pts per possession). It was the second time that happened in their first nine games. (0.85 pts per possessions in their season-opening win over Idaho State. At home. In overtime.)
Wins: @Rice (+8), @Georgetown (+10)
I like Luke Winn, but he's crazy to think that Oregon is one of the twelve best/most impressive teams in the country right now. (See also his gift of a #6 ranking to Oklahoma State on the strength of their three narrow, neutral-court wins against teams that may well not make the tournament.) The Ducks rode some very hot three-point shooting to win four home games against marginal competition but against less than stellar opposition on the road they shot 43.5 eFG% both times out. I'm skeptical that Ernie Kent can keep this team in the top ten in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. They haven't finished higher than 94th in that category in any of the last three years.
Wins: vs. Middle Tennessee State (+15), vs. Iowa (+16), vs. Xavier (+15)
Loss: @Notre Dame (-15)
I expect Alabama's defensive efficiency to improve as they play more at-risk games and the influence of Notre Dame's great offensive performance last night lessens.
Wins: vs. Winthrop (+13), vs. Tennessee (+12), Ohio State (+17)
Loss: vs. Gonzaga (-10)
I'm not counting home wins over Kentucky as anything yet but it was far and away UNC's best defensive performance of the season. Their offense has been good but inconsistent thus far so team defensive improvement could be quite valuable.
Wins: @George Mason (+11), @LSU (+9), @Syracuse (+4)
Wichita State is getting too much credit for George Mason having made the Final Four last year, but I don't mind as it makes those autogaphed Mark Turgeon posters I had on my bedroom wall as a boy look all the more prescient.
Win: Texas A&M (+21)
Loss: Wichita State (-9)
LSU looks like they'll attempt to grind out another March run by playing good defense, rebounding, and getting to the free throw line. The fragility of their offense is such that they accomplished two of those three things (defense and rebounding) at home against Wichita State and still lost.
Wins: vs. Fordham (+12), vs. UNC-Wilmington (+16), @Louisiana-Lafayette (+10), Memphis (+26)
Losses: vs. Butler (-18), vs. North Carolina (-15)
Tennessee's efficiency numbers match LSU's almost exactly, but the Volunteers obviously arrive at them quite differently: forcing turnovers in an attempt that the greater number of shots they take will outweigh any field goal percentage advantage their opponents have. With the Vols struggling from the field and the line thus far, their margin for error has been slim.
Win: Arizona (+11)
Loss: @Purdue (-1)
Upcoming home games against Gonzaga and Stanford will give us a much better idea of Virginia's relative quality.
Wins: vs. Louisville (+7), Creighton (+7)
Loss: @SMU (-10)
I ran Dayton to see if I should continue to count Nebraska's home win over Creighton as an at-risk game. I'm keeping Creighton as a likely NCAA Tournament for the time being. The Flyers aren't too impressive and their win over Blue Jays likely has a lot to do with both teams having a significant home court advantage. That being said, Dayton's as good a pick as any to be the second-best team in the A-10 this year.
Win: vs. Air Force (+25)
Loss: vs. Marquette (-21)
Duke's current profile only reflects two games so it's too early to much into it. Including any or all of the home games against Indiana, Georgetown, and Holy Cross would flatter Duke's defensive efficiency but also reflect their offensive struggles this year.
Win: @Canisius (+20)
Losses: Wichita State (-4), vs. Oklahoma State (-9)
With no games that should challenge a good team until Pittsburgh comes to the Carrier Dome on January 4th, Syracuse will at best continue to look awfully mediocre in their at-risk profile.
Win: vs. Illinois (+14)
Loss @Virginia (-11)
Arizona's is terriffically entertaining, but they'll have to improve their defensive efficiency by about 20% to be a serious Final Four contender.
Wins: Oklahoma (+20), Kentucky (+18)
Losses: vs. Georgia Tech (-9), @Tennessee (-26)
Memphis hasn't been very good offensively even against patsies at home (105 pts per 100 possessions in all games) mostly due to poor shooting from the field and the line. If they can improve in either of those areas, they'll be able to take advantage of their consistently solid defense. Only Georgia Tech has had any easy time scoring against them.
Wins: vs. Purdue (+25), vs. Memphis (+9)
Losses: vs. UCLA (-26), @Miami, FL (-10)
They're young and they could certainly get it together at some point this year but they've allowed at least 110 points per possessions in each of their last four games. That's not entirely damning when you're facing Memphis or UCLA, but it shouldn't happen at home against Penn State or @Miami.
Wins: @Vanderbilt (+19), @Fairfield (+23)
Losses: Old Dominion (-26), Oregon (-10), @Duke (-14)
Georgetown hasn't been very good at any point this year and two key offensive measures (eFG% and TO%) are trending sharply downward. Their schedule may buoy their record for a while but they do not appear ready to succeed against Big East competition.
Wins: vs. Oklahoma (+5), vs. DePaul (+16)
Loss: vs. Georgia Tech (-25)
Included simply because I ran them after the Maui Invivational. That DePaul is never going to look better than it does this week.
Wins: vs. VCU (+4), vs. Villanova (+7)
Loss: vs. Alabama (-15)
The Muskateers are getting a lot of credit for their game against Alabama being played at a slow enough pace that the seven-point loss looked closer than it truly was.
Wins: vs. UNC (+10), vs. Texas (+11)
Losses: vs. Butler (-17), @Washington State (-14)
Gonzaga's played a tougher slate of at-risk games than most teams. That doesn't mean that their defense won't be an issue come tournament time again this year. Unlike Georgetown, though, I expect Gonzaga to make the tournament easily.
Wins: vs. Miami, OH (+6), vs. Bradley (+7)
Losses: Maryland (-7), vs. Arizona (-14)
If the defense tightens once (if?) Bruce Weber gets his full complement of players available they could join the race for second-place in the Big 10.
Win: vs. Texas (+5)
Losses: vs. Maryland (-5), @Boston College (-12)
Though they've shown some flashes of offensive competence at home against Youngstown State, IUPUI-Fort Wayne, and perhaps relevantly, Bradley, the Spartans have struggled to make shots and take care of the ball in their three toughest games. Like a typical Tom Izzo team, they are getting a ton of offensive rebounds.
Loss: @North Carolina (-17)
Obviously, we're suffering from a lack of data points here. From my (limited) observation, Ohio State is the second most likely team, at this early point in the season, to reach the Final Four.
Until their December 30th trip to West Virginia, no news is good news.
I have no idea why Washington's in the top 15 of both polls. They haven't been impressive in dispatching their overmatched foes. @Gonzaga tommorrow, though.
These are all the teams I have updated through yesterday. If you're interested in a team that's missing, use the comments and I'll try to have them added by next week.
Starting next week, look for the national overview every Friday and the Big 12 every Monday.
For the last couple of years, my NCAA Tournament predictions have been centered around looking at how the teams performed in what I categorized as at-risk games: road and neutral games, home games against NCAA Tournament teams, and home losses. It's been a fairly effective tool when used at that time of the year so this season I'm curious as to whether categorizing games thusly tells us anything useful.
Generally, you'd want to include as much information as possible, but I'm guessing that winning guarantee games at home doesn't tell you much about college basketball teams. Plus, tracking these at-risk games allows you to watch teams build their NCAA resumes from scratch.
Obviously, all at-risk games are not created equally so I'll provide more information than just the numbers. I am listing teams in order of efficiency margin (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) simply as an organizational choice. These are not rankings.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Air Force | 124 | 93 | +31 |
Wins: vs. Long Beach State (+5), @Stanford (+63), @Colorado (+57), vs. Texas Tech (+27), vs. Wake Forest (+57)
Loss: vs. Duke (-25)
The Falcons will probably struggle against the nation's most athletic and defensive-minded teams, but the manner in which they have destroyed the mediocre-to-poor major conference teams they've played suggests that this is an awfully effective offensive team.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Clemson | 113 | 87 | +26 |
Wins: vs. Arkansas State (+50), vs. Monmouth (+13), at Old Dominion (+5), @Minnesota (+30), @South Carolina (+29)
Clemson's been getting a bit of mainstream attention for their 10-0 start. Getting an opposing coach to quit after he loses to you will do that. Following the win @Minnesota with an equally decisive win @South Carolina is best thing on their resume, but they may not play another at-risk game until they open ACC play.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Butler | 109 | 86 | +23 |
Wins: @Tulane (+70), vs. Notre Dame (+3), vs. Indiana (+8), vs. Tennessee (+17), vs. Gonzaga (+16), @ Valparaiso (+20)
Without that narrow win over Notre Dame in the first round of the Preseason NIT, we'd have no idea how good Butler is. I think that Butler's defensive efficiency number above is pretty accurate. Sure, it reflects dominating performances @Tulane and @Valparaiso, but they've also played the potent offenses of Notre Dame and Gonzaga.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Villanova | 115 | 92 | +23 |
Wins: vs. College of Charleston (+18), vs. Iowa (+46), @Stony Brook (+44), vs. Penn (+14), @Oklahoma (+20)
Loss: vs. Xavier (-7)
It's not a great collection of wins, but the margins of those victories is intriguing.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Nevada | 117 | 95 | +22 |
Wins: @Oregon State (+43), @Santa Clara (+16), @Louisiana-Lafayette (+17), vs. California (+11)
No great wins yet, but I suspect the Wolfpack are for real offensively as long as Fazekas is in the lineup. I am unlikely, however, to pick them (or any 4 or 5 seed) to go to the Final Four again this year.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Pittsburgh | 111 | 92 | +19 |
Wins: vs. Western Michigan (+21), @Auburn (+15)
Upcoming games @Wisconsin, vs. Oklahoma State, and home to Dayton will give us much-needed additional data to evaluate the Panthers.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Notre Dame | 116 | 100 | +16 |
Wins: vs. Lafayette (+43), vs. Maryland (+9), Alabama (+15)
Loss: vs. Butler (-5)
Take out the Lafayette game and they're +6 on the season which is a much more appropriate way to look at their potential. Excellent offense, regardless.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| UCLA | 119 | 103 | +16 |
Wins: vs.Kentucky (+5), vs. Georgia Tech (+26)
UCLA's probably pretty good, but we don't have sufficient evidence to say so with much certainty.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Maryland | 105 | 94 | +11 |
Wins: @St. John's (+41), vs. Michigan State (+4), @Illinois (+7)
Loss vs. Notre Dame (-9)
Their at-risk profile is living off of the blowout win against St. John's in MSG. That will likely remain at outlier, but the Terps should continue to be far better than anyone who shoots 32.8 eFG% against them for an entire game and they look capable of becoming a good defensive team.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Florida | 117 | 107 | +10 |
Win: vs. Western Kentucky (+40)
Losses: vs. Kansas (-7), @Florida State (-3)
While it's true that Florida lacks a good win thus far, I think it's a little early to consider them anything other than the favorite to win the National Championship. (As long as you include the caveat that Wichita State and Butler are far and away the two most impressive teams so far this year and that nobody appears to have a very good chance of winning the National Championship at this point.)
That the Gators could give up points so easily to Kansas and Florida State is the only real concern going forward.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Marquette | 104 | 95 | +9 |
Wins: vs. Texas Tech (+16), vs. Duke (+21), @Valparaiso (+4)
Loss: North Dakota State (-6)
Marquette had a complete offensive collapse against North Dakota State (0.83 pts per possession). It was the second time that happened in their first nine games. (0.85 pts per possessions in their season-opening win over Idaho State. At home. In overtime.)
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Oregon | 95 | 86 | +9 |
Wins: @Rice (+8), @Georgetown (+10)
I like Luke Winn, but he's crazy to think that Oregon is one of the twelve best/most impressive teams in the country right now. (See also his gift of a #6 ranking to Oklahoma State on the strength of their three narrow, neutral-court wins against teams that may well not make the tournament.) The Ducks rode some very hot three-point shooting to win four home games against marginal competition but against less than stellar opposition on the road they shot 43.5 eFG% both times out. I'm skeptical that Ernie Kent can keep this team in the top ten in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. They haven't finished higher than 94th in that category in any of the last three years.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Alabama | 110 | 102 | +8 |
Wins: vs. Middle Tennessee State (+15), vs. Iowa (+16), vs. Xavier (+15)
Loss: @Notre Dame (-15)
I expect Alabama's defensive efficiency to improve as they play more at-risk games and the influence of Notre Dame's great offensive performance last night lessens.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| North Carolina | 113 | 105 | +8 |
Wins: vs. Winthrop (+13), vs. Tennessee (+12), Ohio State (+17)
Loss: vs. Gonzaga (-10)
I'm not counting home wins over Kentucky as anything yet but it was far and away UNC's best defensive performance of the season. Their offense has been good but inconsistent thus far so team defensive improvement could be quite valuable.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Wichita State | 104 | 96 | +8 |
Wins: @George Mason (+11), @LSU (+9), @Syracuse (+4)
Wichita State is getting too much credit for George Mason having made the Final Four last year, but I don't mind as it makes those autogaphed Mark Turgeon posters I had on my bedroom wall as a boy look all the more prescient.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| LSU | 98 | 92 | +6 |
Win: Texas A&M (+21)
Loss: Wichita State (-9)
LSU looks like they'll attempt to grind out another March run by playing good defense, rebounding, and getting to the free throw line. The fragility of their offense is such that they accomplished two of those three things (defense and rebounding) at home against Wichita State and still lost.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Tennessee | 98 | 93 | +5 |
Wins: vs. Fordham (+12), vs. UNC-Wilmington (+16), @Louisiana-Lafayette (+10), Memphis (+26)
Losses: vs. Butler (-18), vs. North Carolina (-15)
Tennessee's efficiency numbers match LSU's almost exactly, but the Volunteers obviously arrive at them quite differently: forcing turnovers in an attempt that the greater number of shots they take will outweigh any field goal percentage advantage their opponents have. With the Vols struggling from the field and the line thus far, their margin for error has been slim.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Virginia | 112 | 1073 | +5 |
Win: Arizona (+11)
Loss: @Purdue (-1)
Upcoming home games against Gonzaga and Stanford will give us a much better idea of Virginia's relative quality.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Dayton | 96 | 94 | +2 |
Wins: vs. Louisville (+7), Creighton (+7)
Loss: @SMU (-10)
I ran Dayton to see if I should continue to count Nebraska's home win over Creighton as an at-risk game. I'm keeping Creighton as a likely NCAA Tournament for the time being. The Flyers aren't too impressive and their win over Blue Jays likely has a lot to do with both teams having a significant home court advantage. That being said, Dayton's as good a pick as any to be the second-best team in the A-10 this year.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Duke | 110 | 108 | +2 |
Win: vs. Air Force (+25)
Loss: vs. Marquette (-21)
Duke's current profile only reflects two games so it's too early to much into it. Including any or all of the home games against Indiana, Georgetown, and Holy Cross would flatter Duke's defensive efficiency but also reflect their offensive struggles this year.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Syracuse | 103 | 101 | +2 |
Win: @Canisius (+20)
Losses: Wichita State (-4), vs. Oklahoma State (-9)
With no games that should challenge a good team until Pittsburgh comes to the Carrier Dome on January 4th, Syracuse will at best continue to look awfully mediocre in their at-risk profile.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Arizona | 119 | 118 | +1 |
Win: vs. Illinois (+14)
Loss @Virginia (-11)
Arizona's is terriffically entertaining, but they'll have to improve their defensive efficiency by about 20% to be a serious Final Four contender.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Memphis | 100 | 99 | +1 |
Wins: Oklahoma (+20), Kentucky (+18)
Losses: vs. Georgia Tech (-9), @Tennessee (-26)
Memphis hasn't been very good offensively even against patsies at home (105 pts per 100 possessions in all games) mostly due to poor shooting from the field and the line. If they can improve in either of those areas, they'll be able to take advantage of their consistently solid defense. Only Georgia Tech has had any easy time scoring against them.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Georgia Tech | 116 | 116 | 0 |
Wins: vs. Purdue (+25), vs. Memphis (+9)
Losses: vs. UCLA (-26), @Miami, FL (-10)
They're young and they could certainly get it together at some point this year but they've allowed at least 110 points per possessions in each of their last four games. That's not entirely damning when you're facing Memphis or UCLA, but it shouldn't happen at home against Penn State or @Miami.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Georgetown | 104 | 105 | -1 |
Wins: @Vanderbilt (+19), @Fairfield (+23)
Losses: Old Dominion (-26), Oregon (-10), @Duke (-14)
Georgetown hasn't been very good at any point this year and two key offensive measures (eFG% and TO%) are trending sharply downward. Their schedule may buoy their record for a while but they do not appear ready to succeed against Big East competition.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Purdue | 106 | 107 | -1 |
Wins: vs. Oklahoma (+5), vs. DePaul (+16)
Loss: vs. Georgia Tech (-25)
Included simply because I ran them after the Maui Invivational. That DePaul is never going to look better than it does this week.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Xavier | 98 | 99 | -1 |
Wins: vs. VCU (+4), vs. Villanova (+7)
Loss: vs. Alabama (-15)
The Muskateers are getting a lot of credit for their game against Alabama being played at a slow enough pace that the seven-point loss looked closer than it truly was.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Gonzaga | 109 | 111 | -2 |
Wins: vs. UNC (+10), vs. Texas (+11)
Losses: vs. Butler (-17), @Washington State (-14)
Gonzaga's played a tougher slate of at-risk games than most teams. That doesn't mean that their defense won't be an issue come tournament time again this year. Unlike Georgetown, though, I expect Gonzaga to make the tournament easily.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Illinois | 101 | 103 | -2 |
Wins: vs. Miami, OH (+6), vs. Bradley (+7)
Losses: Maryland (-7), vs. Arizona (-14)
If the defense tightens once (if?) Bruce Weber gets his full complement of players available they could join the race for second-place in the Big 10.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Michigan State | 95 | 99 | -4 |
Win: vs. Texas (+5)
Losses: vs. Maryland (-5), @Boston College (-12)
Though they've shown some flashes of offensive competence at home against Youngstown State, IUPUI-Fort Wayne, and perhaps relevantly, Bradley, the Spartans have struggled to make shots and take care of the ball in their three toughest games. Like a typical Tom Izzo team, they are getting a ton of offensive rebounds.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Ohio State | 116 | 133 | -17 |
Loss: @North Carolina (-17)
Obviously, we're suffering from a lack of data points here. From my (limited) observation, Ohio State is the second most likely team, at this early point in the season, to reach the Final Four.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| UConn | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Until their December 30th trip to West Virginia, no news is good news.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Washington | N/A | N/A | N/A |
I have no idea why Washington's in the top 15 of both polls. They haven't been impressive in dispatching their overmatched foes. @Gonzaga tommorrow, though.
Thursday, December 07, 2006
Performance in At-risk Games: The Big 12 Through 12/6/06
Hoopinion's been on hiatus (just here, things keep chugging along at PhogBlog and CourtsideTimes) while laying the groundwork for an ambitious and time-consuming project that may turn out to be meaningless.
That's how you lower expectations.
For the last couple of years, my NCAA Tournament predictions have been centered around looking at how the teams performed in what I categorized as at-risk games: road and neutral games, home games against NCAA Tournament teams, and home losses. It's been a fairly effective tool when used at that time of the year so this season I'm curious as to whether categorizing games thusly tells us anything useful.
Generally, you'd want to include as much information as possible, but I'm guessing that winning guarantee games at home doesn't tell you much about college basketball teams. Plus, tracking these at-risk games allows you to watch teams build their NCAA resumes from scratch.
Obviously, all at-risk games are not created equally so I'll provide more information than just the numbers. I am listing teams in order of efficiency margin (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) simply as an organizational choice. These are not rankings.
Today the Big 12, tomorrow a national overview.
Win: Creighton (+17)
Loss: @Rutgers (-7)
You'll see that I'm quite conservative about including home wins this early in the year. At the time of the win, Creighton looked like a decent bet to make the tournament. I don't think their loss to Dayton last night changes it that much. As to why I think that, look for Dayton's year-to-date profile tomorrow.
Wins: vs. Auburn (+2), vs. Missouri State (+6), vs. Syracuse (+4)
Winning all your close games is better than losing some of them, but I wouldn't hang my hat on being able to continue to do so. When facing decent opposition thus far, Oklahoma State has not yet found anyone to complement Boggan and Curry offensively. Or learned how not to turn the ball over (TO% = 30.6 in these three games).
Wins: vs. Ball State (+25), vs. Florida (+7)
Losses: Oral Roberts (-14), @DePaul (-11)
That's not the resume of a number-one seed. Ball State's the only team of the four that Kansas held under a point per possession. Florida's the only team of the four against whom Kansas scored more than 1.01 points per possession.
Wins: @UTEP (+21), @TCU (+11), @Louisiana Tech (+17)
Losses: vs. Marquette (-16), vs. Air Force (-27), @Stanford (-13)
The Red Raiders may be close to neutral overall, but they lost (and lost handily) to the three best teams they've played (and Stanford's not even that good) and are buoying themselves with road wins against teams (year-to-date) in the bottom half of Division 1. I would not, at this time, expect Texas Tech to finish in the top half of the Big 12.
Win: @St. John's (+3)
Losses: vs. Michigan State (-5), vs. Gonzaga (-11)
This what Texas is right now, not what they could become before the year is out. Upcoming non-conference games against LSU and @Tennessee will give us a better idea of how Texas compares nationally. That they've played some decent-to-good teams close already lets us know that they appear to be among the class of the Big 12. I've never been impressed by Rick Barnes as a defensive coach. That could well be what keeps this young team from achieving much beyond a top-3 finish in conference.
Win: vs. Colorado State (+6)
Loss: @Gonzaga (-16)
Ken Pomeroy, who includes all Division 1 games and adjusts offensive and defensive efficiency for quality of opponents has Baylor ranked 42nd in the nation in Offensive Efficiency. Here's where I suspect looking strongly at the at-risk games helps one's analysis. I day that struggling to score against Colorado State and Gonzaga does not bode well for Baylor, I don't care how many points they score at home against Alcorn State, Grambling State, and Texas State.
Win: @Minnesota (+5)
Losses: @Northern Iowa (-19), Drake (-1)
You likely don't need me to tell you that Iowa State may win the race to 11th place in the Big 12. Their best win came narrowly against a team whose coach resigned soon thereafter. Northern Iowa beat them rather handily. They lost at home to Drake and barely escaped Eastern Illinois in Ames earlier in the year. Once their upcoming games at Iowa and at Ohio State and against Bradley in Des Moines occur the Cyclones will be looking up at the middle of the conference pack on this list.
Win: @Rutgers (+22)
Losses: @New Mexico (-31), @California (-43), @Colorado State (-7)
In their win at Rutgers, Kansas State scored just 0.84 points per possession. They were even worse at New Mexico (0.76) and California (0.74). They scored much more efficiently at Colorado State (1.18). It remains to be seen as to how much of that was due to Kansas State improving and how much of that was due to Colorado State being a bad defensive team.
Losses: vs. Memphis (-20), vs. Purdue (-5), Villanova (-20)
The Sooners are struggling to score this year. So much so that they got blown out at home last night despite playing some decent defense (0.96 pts per possession) against Villanova.
March 3rd, 2007, Oklahoma at Kansas State. First team to 50 wins.
Loss: @LSU (-21)
I'm not saying Texas A&M's not the second-best team in the Big 12. I'm just saying that in the one game so far this season where the outcome was in question, Texas A&M lost badly to a good opponent. (The margin of victory was only 12 points, but that's a pretty fair margin in a 61 possession game.)
FYI: Should Pacific make the tournament and get added to Texas A&M's at-risk profile, Texas A&M was +22 in that game.
Win: @Utah (0)
Losses: @New Mexico (-55), Air Force (-57), Wyoming (-4), @UNC-Wilmington (-14), Pepperdine (-10)
In their home game against Northern Colorado, I estimated (from the box score) that Colorado had four more possessions than Norther Colorado and the Buffs were outscored per possession depsite winning the game by two whole points. That's likely due to all the offensive rebounds and free throw attempts skewing the numbers by a couple of possessions, but bear in mind that Colorado, at best, played Northern Colorado even for 40 minutes. At home.
This is a bad basketball team led by a lame-duck coach. If Colorado doesn't finish last in the Big 12 a) I'd be shocked and b) somebody's getting fired.
Finally, the most interesting team in the Big 12. Missouri haven't played any at-risk games yet, though neither Arkansas (+31) nor Evansville (+26) is a complete pushover. Right now, I'd pick Missouri to finish in the top four of the Big 12. Mike Anderson's style of play is more vulnerable the better the opposition is, but since there don't appear to be any really good teams in the Big 12, they have to like their chances on any given night. Sure, they'll probably lose @Kansas, @Texas, and @Texas A&M, but I wouldn't guarantee that any of those teams would win that matchup.
If Missouri looks overmatched against Illinois and @Purdue in the next ten days, disregard the above.
That's how you lower expectations.
For the last couple of years, my NCAA Tournament predictions have been centered around looking at how the teams performed in what I categorized as at-risk games: road and neutral games, home games against NCAA Tournament teams, and home losses. It's been a fairly effective tool when used at that time of the year so this season I'm curious as to whether categorizing games thusly tells us anything useful.
Generally, you'd want to include as much information as possible, but I'm guessing that winning guarantee games at home doesn't tell you much about college basketball teams. Plus, tracking these at-risk games allows you to watch teams build their NCAA resumes from scratch.
Obviously, all at-risk games are not created equally so I'll provide more information than just the numbers. I am listing teams in order of efficiency margin (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) simply as an organizational choice. These are not rankings.
Today the Big 12, tomorrow a national overview.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Nebraska | 116 | 111 | +5 |
Win: Creighton (+17)
Loss: @Rutgers (-7)
You'll see that I'm quite conservative about including home wins this early in the year. At the time of the win, Creighton looked like a decent bet to make the tournament. I don't think their loss to Dayton last night changes it that much. As to why I think that, look for Dayton's year-to-date profile tomorrow.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Oklahoma State | 101 | 97 | +4 |
Wins: vs. Auburn (+2), vs. Missouri State (+6), vs. Syracuse (+4)
Winning all your close games is better than losing some of them, but I wouldn't hang my hat on being able to continue to do so. When facing decent opposition thus far, Oklahoma State has not yet found anyone to complement Boggan and Curry offensively. Or learned how not to turn the ball over (TO% = 30.6 in these three games).
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Kansas | 101 | 99 | +2 |
Wins: vs. Ball State (+25), vs. Florida (+7)
Losses: Oral Roberts (-14), @DePaul (-11)
That's not the resume of a number-one seed. Ball State's the only team of the four that Kansas held under a point per possession. Florida's the only team of the four against whom Kansas scored more than 1.01 points per possession.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Texas Tech | 104 | 105 | -1 |
Wins: @UTEP (+21), @TCU (+11), @Louisiana Tech (+17)
Losses: vs. Marquette (-16), vs. Air Force (-27), @Stanford (-13)
The Red Raiders may be close to neutral overall, but they lost (and lost handily) to the three best teams they've played (and Stanford's not even that good) and are buoying themselves with road wins against teams (year-to-date) in the bottom half of Division 1. I would not, at this time, expect Texas Tech to finish in the top half of the Big 12.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Texas | 104 | 109 | -5 |
Win: @St. John's (+3)
Losses: vs. Michigan State (-5), vs. Gonzaga (-11)
This what Texas is right now, not what they could become before the year is out. Upcoming non-conference games against LSU and @Tennessee will give us a better idea of how Texas compares nationally. That they've played some decent-to-good teams close already lets us know that they appear to be among the class of the Big 12. I've never been impressed by Rick Barnes as a defensive coach. That could well be what keeps this young team from achieving much beyond a top-3 finish in conference.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Baylor | 100 | 105 | -5 |
Win: vs. Colorado State (+6)
Loss: @Gonzaga (-16)
Ken Pomeroy, who includes all Division 1 games and adjusts offensive and defensive efficiency for quality of opponents has Baylor ranked 42nd in the nation in Offensive Efficiency. Here's where I suspect looking strongly at the at-risk games helps one's analysis. I day that struggling to score against Colorado State and Gonzaga does not bode well for Baylor, I don't care how many points they score at home against Alcorn State, Grambling State, and Texas State.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Iowa State | 99 | 105 | -6 |
Win: @Minnesota (+5)
Losses: @Northern Iowa (-19), Drake (-1)
You likely don't need me to tell you that Iowa State may win the race to 11th place in the Big 12. Their best win came narrowly against a team whose coach resigned soon thereafter. Northern Iowa beat them rather handily. They lost at home to Drake and barely escaped Eastern Illinois in Ames earlier in the year. Once their upcoming games at Iowa and at Ohio State and against Bradley in Des Moines occur the Cyclones will be looking up at the middle of the conference pack on this list.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Kansas State | 88 | 103 | -15 |
Win: @Rutgers (+22)
Losses: @New Mexico (-31), @California (-43), @Colorado State (-7)
In their win at Rutgers, Kansas State scored just 0.84 points per possession. They were even worse at New Mexico (0.76) and California (0.74). They scored much more efficiently at Colorado State (1.18). It remains to be seen as to how much of that was due to Kansas State improving and how much of that was due to Colorado State being a bad defensive team.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Oklahoma | 87 | 103 | -16 |
Losses: vs. Memphis (-20), vs. Purdue (-5), Villanova (-20)
The Sooners are struggling to score this year. So much so that they got blown out at home last night despite playing some decent defense (0.96 pts per possession) against Villanova.
March 3rd, 2007, Oklahoma at Kansas State. First team to 50 wins.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Texas A&M | 84 | 105 | -21 |
Loss: @LSU (-21)
I'm not saying Texas A&M's not the second-best team in the Big 12. I'm just saying that in the one game so far this season where the outcome was in question, Texas A&M lost badly to a good opponent. (The margin of victory was only 12 points, but that's a pretty fair margin in a 61 possession game.)
FYI: Should Pacific make the tournament and get added to Texas A&M's at-risk profile, Texas A&M was +22 in that game.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Colorado | 87 | 112 | -25 |
Win: @Utah (0)
Losses: @New Mexico (-55), Air Force (-57), Wyoming (-4), @UNC-Wilmington (-14), Pepperdine (-10)
In their home game against Northern Colorado, I estimated (from the box score) that Colorado had four more possessions than Norther Colorado and the Buffs were outscored per possession depsite winning the game by two whole points. That's likely due to all the offensive rebounds and free throw attempts skewing the numbers by a couple of possessions, but bear in mind that Colorado, at best, played Northern Colorado even for 40 minutes. At home.
This is a bad basketball team led by a lame-duck coach. If Colorado doesn't finish last in the Big 12 a) I'd be shocked and b) somebody's getting fired.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Missouri | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Finally, the most interesting team in the Big 12. Missouri haven't played any at-risk games yet, though neither Arkansas (+31) nor Evansville (+26) is a complete pushover. Right now, I'd pick Missouri to finish in the top four of the Big 12. Mike Anderson's style of play is more vulnerable the better the opposition is, but since there don't appear to be any really good teams in the Big 12, they have to like their chances on any given night. Sure, they'll probably lose @Kansas, @Texas, and @Texas A&M, but I wouldn't guarantee that any of those teams would win that matchup.
If Missouri looks overmatched against Illinois and @Purdue in the next ten days, disregard the above.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)