Performance in At-risk Games: National Overview through 12/14/06

For the last couple of years, my NCAA Tournament predictions have been centered around looking at how the teams performed in what I categorized as at-risk games: road and neutral games, home games against NCAA Tournament teams, and home losses. It's been a fairly effective tool when used at that time of the year so this season I'm curious as to whether categorizing games thusly tells us anything useful.

Generally, you'd want to include as much information as possible, but I'm guessing that winning guarantee games at home doesn't tell you much about college basketball teams. Plus, tracking these at-risk games allows you to watch teams build their NCAA resumes from scratch.

Obviously, all at-risk games are not created equally so I'll provide more information than just the numbers. I am listing teams in order of efficiency margin (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) simply as an organizational choice. These are not rankings.

Big 12 teams are listed here.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Air Force	124	93	+31

Wins: vs. Long Beach State (+5), @Stanford (+63), @Colorado (+57), vs. Texas Tech (+27), vs. Wake Forest (+57)
Loss: vs. Duke (-25)

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Clemson	113	87	+26

Wins: vs. Arkansas State (+50), vs. Monmouth (+13), at Old Dominion (+5), @Minnesota (+30), @South Carolina (+29)

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Villanova	115	96	+19

Wins: vs. College of Charleston (+18), vs. Iowa (+46), @Stony Brook (+44), vs. Penn (+14), @Oklahoma (+20)
Losses: vs. Xavier (-7), Drexel (-5)

Two really poor defensive performances by the Wildcats in Philadelphia against Penn (120 pts per 100 possessions) and Drexel (117 pts per 100 possessions) on either side of their defensive domination @Oklahoma (76 pts per 100 possessions) doesn't bode well for the Sooners going forward.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Butler	108	91	+17

Wins: @Tulane (+70), vs. Notre Dame (+3), vs. Indiana (+8), vs. Tennessee (+17), vs. Gonzaga (+16), @ Valparaiso (+20)
Loss: @Indiana State (-13)

Butler finally lost away from home with an uncharacteristically poor defensive performance (117 pts per 100 possessions) against the Sycamores.

The win @Tulane is inflating Butler's overall at-risk numbers but keep in mind that LSU played @Tulane as well and were only +8.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Notre Dame	116	100	+16

Wins: vs. Lafayette (+43), vs. Maryland (+9), Alabama (+15)
Loss: vs. Butler (-5)

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Oregon	103	88	+15

Wins: @Rice (+8), @Georgetown (+10), vs. Nebraska (+26)

I put the over/under on Oregon wins in conference play at 10.5. If they keep on playing defense like this, I'll be shocked.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Pittsburgh	115	100	+15

Wins: vs. Western Michigan (+21), @Auburn (+15), @Buffalo (+9)

This is an excellent offensive basketball team just a notch (I suspect) below Florida, Arizona, Ohio State, and Air Force.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Nevada	108	94	+14

Wins: @Oregon State (+43), @Santa Clara (+16), @Louisiana-Lafayette (+17), vs. California (+11)
Loss: UNLV (-15)

I'm inclined to believe that the loss to UNLV was extreme outlier, a perfect storm of poor shooting (35.7 eFG%) and turnovers (31.9%) that sabotaged another fine defensive performance.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Arizona	112	100	+12

Wins: vs. Illinois (+14), vs. Louisville (+12), @San Diego State (+34)
Loss @Virginia (-11)

Louisville and San Diego State aren't very good teams right now but it marked very real progress for Arizona to guard anybody effectively.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
UCLA	114	102	+12

Wins: vs.Kentucky (+5), vs. Georgia Tech (+26), vs. UCLA (+5)

The Bruins are off of last year's standards for rebounding and defensive field goal percentage. Their room for improvement in those areas only reinforces my suspicion that there will be a significant gulf between the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the Pac-10.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Wichita State	107	95	+12

Wins: @George Mason (+11), @LSU (+9), @Syracuse (+4), vs. Wyoming (+22)

Those are some very encouraging offensive numbers to be posting away from home.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Florida	117	107	+10

Win: vs. Western Kentucky (+40)
Losses: vs. Kansas (-7), @Florida State (-3)

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Alabama	110	102	+8

Wins: vs. Middle Tennessee State (+15), vs. Iowa (+16), vs. Xavier (+15)
Loss: @Notre Dame (-15)

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Missouri State	106	98	+8

Wins: vs. Wisconsin (+10), @UNC-Wilmington (+23)
Loss: vs. Oklahoma State (-6)

That is the profile of a team that Oklahoma State is using to prop up their decent start to the season. Missouri State might turn out to be the best team in the MVC, but they haven't accomplished much so far.

EMPTY THREAT ALERT: If the athletic department doesn't get their website up soon, I may refrain from updating Missouri State's profile until they make the tournament (if applicable).

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
North Carolina	113	105	+8

Wins: vs. Winthrop (+13), vs. Tennessee (+12), Ohio State (+17)
Loss: vs. Gonzaga (-10)

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Wisconsin	99	93	+6

Wins: vs. Auburn (+24), @Marquette (+5)
Loss: vs. Missouri State (-10)

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Marquette	100	95	+5

Wins: vs. Texas Tech (+16), vs. Duke (+21), @Valparaiso (+4)
Losses: North Dakota State (-6), Wisconsin (-5)

I wouldn't want my team drawn opposite James, McNeal, and Matthews come tournament time but getting there will be a roller coaster ride for Marquette fans. This is a perimeter-dominated effort on both ends of the floor.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Maryland	102	97	+5

Wins: @St. John's (+41), vs. Michigan State (+4), @Illinois (+7)
Loss vs. Notre Dame (-9), @Boston College (-20)

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Tennessee	98	93	+5

Wins: vs. Fordham (+12), vs. UNC-Wilmington (+16), @Louisiana-Lafayette (+10), Memphis (+26)
Losses: vs. Butler (-18), vs. North Carolina (-15)

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Virginia	112	107	+5

Win: Arizona (+11)
Loss: @Purdue (-1)

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Gonzaga	114	110	+4

Wins: vs. UNC (+10), vs. Texas (+11), Washington (+30)
Losses: vs. Butler (-17), @Washington State (-14)

I'll give the Zags Washington at home right now but only with the caveat that the Huskies have done nothing to suggest that they're a good team yet this year.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
LSU	98	94	+4

Win: Texas A&M (+21)
Losses: Wichita State (-9), vs. Texas (-2)

LSU isn't a good offensive team against quality opposition but they appear primed to spoil the NCAA Tournament of a team that relies on outscoring their opponents.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Indiana	94	91	+3

Win: vs. Lafayette (+32)
Losses: vs. Butler (-8), @Duke (-6), @Kentucky (-8)

The Hoosiers are new to the at-risk listings this week. I see a lot more close losses in their future. They failed to top 88 pts per 100 possessions in any of their three close losses. You just can't win many games scoring that inefficiently. They're playing good defense, though.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Boston College	102	100	+2

Wins: Michigan State (+12), @UMass (+15), Maryland (+20)
Losses: Vermont (-23), @Providence (-15)

New this week, Boston College is even with their opponents in at-risk in both field goal shooting and turnover percentage, they trail in offensive rebounding (they're allowing opponents to get 44.6% of possible offensive rebounds), but they're making it up at the free throw line by converting more free throws per field goal attempt than their opponents attempt.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Dayton	96	94	+2

Wins: vs. Louisville (+7), Creighton (+7)
Loss: @SMU (-10)

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Duke	110	108	+2

Win: vs. Air Force (+25)
Loss: vs. Marquette (-21)

Andy Glockner just wrote a piece at ESPN.com arguing that Duke's offense is better than it looks according to traditional statistics:

In other words, Duke is getting seven fewer possessions a game than last season. Given that the Blue Devils' effective field-goal percentage (including the impact of 3s being worth 50 percent more than a 2) is 53.7 percent and they get 38.6 percent of all offensive rebounds, Duke -- even with its high turnover rate -- is losing about six or seven points a game off the scoreboard solely because of the reduced pace of its games.

I think that the reason people think that Duke's offense is perceived to be worse than usual is that it has been outside of the win (their only quality win so far) over Air Force in Kansas City. The Blue Devils were at or below 1 point per possession at home against Georgia Southern, in their loss to Marquette, at home against Indiana and at home against Holy Cross. That's 40-percent of their games, none of them true road games.

The turnover problem is really, really bad thus far for Duke (26.8% in all games, 29.6% in at-risk games) mostly due to Greg Paulus about whom Glockner writes the following:

As Paulus, one of the biggest culprits this season, averaging 3.4 turnovers (against only 3.7 assists) in under 26 minutes a game, regains full game fitness and the underclassmen playing in new, expanded roles get more comfortable with each other, the turnover problems could ease.

The sad truth (if you're a Duke fan or a fan of good point guard play) is that Paulus is playing better than last year so the injury excuse doesn't reall hold water. He's shooting the ball well from behind the arc (43.5% on 23 attempts) and the line (87.5%) and his assist-to-turnover ratio is slightly better than 1:1 (9:8.3 per 100 possessions). Over the next two-and-a-half years Paulus could reduce turnovers slightly but I doubt he'll ever make significant improvement as a defender where his inadequacy hurts Duke every bit as much as do his turnovers.

If Duke improves it will be becuase Josh McRoberts feels healthier and Gerald Henderson and Lance Thomas become consistent contributors.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Michigan State	101	99	+2

Win: vs. Texas (+5), vs. BYU (+20)
Losses: vs. Maryland (-5), @Boston College (-12)

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Syracuse	103	101	+2

Win: @Canisius (+20)
Losses: Wichita State (-4), vs. Oklahoma State (-9)

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Memphis	100	99	+1

Wins: Oklahoma (+20), Kentucky (+18)
Losses: vs. Georgia Tech (-9), @Tennessee (-26)

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Illinois	102	102	0

Wins: vs. Miami, OH (+6), vs. Bradley (+7), vs. Illinois-Chicago (+7)
Losses: Maryland (-7), vs. Arizona (-14)

Of all the Illini players who have missed time through injury or suspension so far this year, I think that a healthy and productive Jamar Smith will be most necessary for the team to remain above Purdue, Indiana, and Michigan in Big 10 play.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Georgetown	104	105	-1

Wins: @Vanderbilt (+19), @Fairfield (+23)
Losses: Old Dominion (-26), Oregon (-10), @Duke (-14)

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Purdue	106	107	-1

Wins: vs. Oklahoma (+5), vs. DePaul (+16)
Loss: vs. Georgia Tech (-25)

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Georgia Tech	110	114	-4

Wins: vs. Purdue (+25), vs. Memphis (+9)
Losses: vs. UCLA (-26), @Miami, FL (-10), @Vanderbilt (-16)

Georgia Tech finally had a bad offensive game and things got ugly, losing @Vanderbilt to a 4-3 team whose previous best win was in overtime at home against Toledo. Vanderbilt lost at home to Furman already this year.

Watching Tech would be a good idea for the more mercurial Kansas fans so they could witness what a talented without an identity looks like. Tech has gone from potentially dangerous tournament team to a team that needs to buckle down to make the field. Paul Hewitt has always struck me as a good coach (that he's a terrifically nice man certainly colors my impression of him) but I'm starting to take the doubts of Tech fans concerning their head coach more seriously.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Xavier	97	102	-5

Wins: vs. VCU (+4), vs. Villanova (+7)
Losses: vs. Alabama (-15), @Cincinnati (-18)

I don't think we'll be seeing the Muskateers back in the Top 25 this year.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Ohio State	116	133	-17

Loss: @North Carolina (-17)

Allow me to repeat what I wrote last week:

Obviously, we're suffering from a lack of data points here. From my (limited) observation, Ohio State is the second most likely team, at this early point in the season, to reach the Final Four.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Washington	102	132	-30

Loss: @Gonzaga (-30)

It's only one game, but anyone who was paying attention saw it coming. LSU at home and a road trip to Los Angeles still await the Huskies prior to the new year.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
UConn	N/A	N/A	N/A

Play somebody.