Performance in At-risk Games: National Overview through 12/7/06
As introduced yesterday with the Big 12 teams, here's a national look at how teams have performed in at-risk games.
These are all the teams I have updated through yesterday. If you're interested in a team that's missing, use the comments and I'll try to have them added by next week.
Starting next week, look for the national overview every Friday and the Big 12 every Monday.
For the last couple of years, my NCAA Tournament predictions have been centered around looking at how the teams performed in what I categorized as at-risk games: road and neutral games, home games against NCAA Tournament teams, and home losses. It's been a fairly effective tool when used at that time of the year so this season I'm curious as to whether categorizing games thusly tells us anything useful.
Generally, you'd want to include as much information as possible, but I'm guessing that winning guarantee games at home doesn't tell you much about college basketball teams. Plus, tracking these at-risk games allows you to watch teams build their NCAA resumes from scratch.
Obviously, all at-risk games are not created equally so I'll provide more information than just the numbers. I am listing teams in order of efficiency margin (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) simply as an organizational choice. These are not rankings.
Wins: vs. Long Beach State (+5), @Stanford (+63), @Colorado (+57), vs. Texas Tech (+27), vs. Wake Forest (+57)
Loss: vs. Duke (-25)
The Falcons will probably struggle against the nation's most athletic and defensive-minded teams, but the manner in which they have destroyed the mediocre-to-poor major conference teams they've played suggests that this is an awfully effective offensive team.
Wins: vs. Arkansas State (+50), vs. Monmouth (+13), at Old Dominion (+5), @Minnesota (+30), @South Carolina (+29)
Clemson's been getting a bit of mainstream attention for their 10-0 start. Getting an opposing coach to quit after he loses to you will do that. Following the win @Minnesota with an equally decisive win @South Carolina is best thing on their resume, but they may not play another at-risk game until they open ACC play.
Wins: @Tulane (+70), vs. Notre Dame (+3), vs. Indiana (+8), vs. Tennessee (+17), vs. Gonzaga (+16), @ Valparaiso (+20)
Without that narrow win over Notre Dame in the first round of the Preseason NIT, we'd have no idea how good Butler is. I think that Butler's defensive efficiency number above is pretty accurate. Sure, it reflects dominating performances @Tulane and @Valparaiso, but they've also played the potent offenses of Notre Dame and Gonzaga.
Wins: vs. College of Charleston (+18), vs. Iowa (+46), @Stony Brook (+44), vs. Penn (+14), @Oklahoma (+20)
Loss: vs. Xavier (-7)
It's not a great collection of wins, but the margins of those victories is intriguing.
Wins: @Oregon State (+43), @Santa Clara (+16), @Louisiana-Lafayette (+17), vs. California (+11)
No great wins yet, but I suspect the Wolfpack are for real offensively as long as Fazekas is in the lineup. I am unlikely, however, to pick them (or any 4 or 5 seed) to go to the Final Four again this year.
Wins: vs. Western Michigan (+21), @Auburn (+15)
Upcoming games @Wisconsin, vs. Oklahoma State, and home to Dayton will give us much-needed additional data to evaluate the Panthers.
Wins: vs. Lafayette (+43), vs. Maryland (+9), Alabama (+15)
Loss: vs. Butler (-5)
Take out the Lafayette game and they're +6 on the season which is a much more appropriate way to look at their potential. Excellent offense, regardless.
Wins: vs.Kentucky (+5), vs. Georgia Tech (+26)
UCLA's probably pretty good, but we don't have sufficient evidence to say so with much certainty.
Wins: @St. John's (+41), vs. Michigan State (+4), @Illinois (+7)
Loss vs. Notre Dame (-9)
Their at-risk profile is living off of the blowout win against St. John's in MSG. That will likely remain at outlier, but the Terps should continue to be far better than anyone who shoots 32.8 eFG% against them for an entire game and they look capable of becoming a good defensive team.
Win: vs. Western Kentucky (+40)
Losses: vs. Kansas (-7), @Florida State (-3)
While it's true that Florida lacks a good win thus far, I think it's a little early to consider them anything other than the favorite to win the National Championship. (As long as you include the caveat that Wichita State and Butler are far and away the two most impressive teams so far this year and that nobody appears to have a very good chance of winning the National Championship at this point.)
That the Gators could give up points so easily to Kansas and Florida State is the only real concern going forward.
Wins: vs. Texas Tech (+16), vs. Duke (+21), @Valparaiso (+4)
Loss: North Dakota State (-6)
Marquette had a complete offensive collapse against North Dakota State (0.83 pts per possession). It was the second time that happened in their first nine games. (0.85 pts per possessions in their season-opening win over Idaho State. At home. In overtime.)
Wins: @Rice (+8), @Georgetown (+10)
I like Luke Winn, but he's crazy to think that Oregon is one of the twelve best/most impressive teams in the country right now. (See also his gift of a #6 ranking to Oklahoma State on the strength of their three narrow, neutral-court wins against teams that may well not make the tournament.) The Ducks rode some very hot three-point shooting to win four home games against marginal competition but against less than stellar opposition on the road they shot 43.5 eFG% both times out. I'm skeptical that Ernie Kent can keep this team in the top ten in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. They haven't finished higher than 94th in that category in any of the last three years.
Wins: vs. Middle Tennessee State (+15), vs. Iowa (+16), vs. Xavier (+15)
Loss: @Notre Dame (-15)
I expect Alabama's defensive efficiency to improve as they play more at-risk games and the influence of Notre Dame's great offensive performance last night lessens.
Wins: vs. Winthrop (+13), vs. Tennessee (+12), Ohio State (+17)
Loss: vs. Gonzaga (-10)
I'm not counting home wins over Kentucky as anything yet but it was far and away UNC's best defensive performance of the season. Their offense has been good but inconsistent thus far so team defensive improvement could be quite valuable.
Wins: @George Mason (+11), @LSU (+9), @Syracuse (+4)
Wichita State is getting too much credit for George Mason having made the Final Four last year, but I don't mind as it makes those autogaphed Mark Turgeon posters I had on my bedroom wall as a boy look all the more prescient.
Win: Texas A&M (+21)
Loss: Wichita State (-9)
LSU looks like they'll attempt to grind out another March run by playing good defense, rebounding, and getting to the free throw line. The fragility of their offense is such that they accomplished two of those three things (defense and rebounding) at home against Wichita State and still lost.
Wins: vs. Fordham (+12), vs. UNC-Wilmington (+16), @Louisiana-Lafayette (+10), Memphis (+26)
Losses: vs. Butler (-18), vs. North Carolina (-15)
Tennessee's efficiency numbers match LSU's almost exactly, but the Volunteers obviously arrive at them quite differently: forcing turnovers in an attempt that the greater number of shots they take will outweigh any field goal percentage advantage their opponents have. With the Vols struggling from the field and the line thus far, their margin for error has been slim.
Win: Arizona (+11)
Loss: @Purdue (-1)
Upcoming home games against Gonzaga and Stanford will give us a much better idea of Virginia's relative quality.
Wins: vs. Louisville (+7), Creighton (+7)
Loss: @SMU (-10)
I ran Dayton to see if I should continue to count Nebraska's home win over Creighton as an at-risk game. I'm keeping Creighton as a likely NCAA Tournament for the time being. The Flyers aren't too impressive and their win over Blue Jays likely has a lot to do with both teams having a significant home court advantage. That being said, Dayton's as good a pick as any to be the second-best team in the A-10 this year.
Win: vs. Air Force (+25)
Loss: vs. Marquette (-21)
Duke's current profile only reflects two games so it's too early to much into it. Including any or all of the home games against Indiana, Georgetown, and Holy Cross would flatter Duke's defensive efficiency but also reflect their offensive struggles this year.
Win: @Canisius (+20)
Losses: Wichita State (-4), vs. Oklahoma State (-9)
With no games that should challenge a good team until Pittsburgh comes to the Carrier Dome on January 4th, Syracuse will at best continue to look awfully mediocre in their at-risk profile.
Win: vs. Illinois (+14)
Loss @Virginia (-11)
Arizona's is terriffically entertaining, but they'll have to improve their defensive efficiency by about 20% to be a serious Final Four contender.
Wins: Oklahoma (+20), Kentucky (+18)
Losses: vs. Georgia Tech (-9), @Tennessee (-26)
Memphis hasn't been very good offensively even against patsies at home (105 pts per 100 possessions in all games) mostly due to poor shooting from the field and the line. If they can improve in either of those areas, they'll be able to take advantage of their consistently solid defense. Only Georgia Tech has had any easy time scoring against them.
Wins: vs. Purdue (+25), vs. Memphis (+9)
Losses: vs. UCLA (-26), @Miami, FL (-10)
They're young and they could certainly get it together at some point this year but they've allowed at least 110 points per possessions in each of their last four games. That's not entirely damning when you're facing Memphis or UCLA, but it shouldn't happen at home against Penn State or @Miami.
Wins: @Vanderbilt (+19), @Fairfield (+23)
Losses: Old Dominion (-26), Oregon (-10), @Duke (-14)
Georgetown hasn't been very good at any point this year and two key offensive measures (eFG% and TO%) are trending sharply downward. Their schedule may buoy their record for a while but they do not appear ready to succeed against Big East competition.
Wins: vs. Oklahoma (+5), vs. DePaul (+16)
Loss: vs. Georgia Tech (-25)
Included simply because I ran them after the Maui Invivational. That DePaul is never going to look better than it does this week.
Wins: vs. VCU (+4), vs. Villanova (+7)
Loss: vs. Alabama (-15)
The Muskateers are getting a lot of credit for their game against Alabama being played at a slow enough pace that the seven-point loss looked closer than it truly was.
Wins: vs. UNC (+10), vs. Texas (+11)
Losses: vs. Butler (-17), @Washington State (-14)
Gonzaga's played a tougher slate of at-risk games than most teams. That doesn't mean that their defense won't be an issue come tournament time again this year. Unlike Georgetown, though, I expect Gonzaga to make the tournament easily.
Wins: vs. Miami, OH (+6), vs. Bradley (+7)
Losses: Maryland (-7), vs. Arizona (-14)
If the defense tightens once (if?) Bruce Weber gets his full complement of players available they could join the race for second-place in the Big 10.
Win: vs. Texas (+5)
Losses: vs. Maryland (-5), @Boston College (-12)
Though they've shown some flashes of offensive competence at home against Youngstown State, IUPUI-Fort Wayne, and perhaps relevantly, Bradley, the Spartans have struggled to make shots and take care of the ball in their three toughest games. Like a typical Tom Izzo team, they are getting a ton of offensive rebounds.
Loss: @North Carolina (-17)
Obviously, we're suffering from a lack of data points here. From my (limited) observation, Ohio State is the second most likely team, at this early point in the season, to reach the Final Four.
Until their December 30th trip to West Virginia, no news is good news.
I have no idea why Washington's in the top 15 of both polls. They haven't been impressive in dispatching their overmatched foes. @Gonzaga tommorrow, though.
These are all the teams I have updated through yesterday. If you're interested in a team that's missing, use the comments and I'll try to have them added by next week.
Starting next week, look for the national overview every Friday and the Big 12 every Monday.
For the last couple of years, my NCAA Tournament predictions have been centered around looking at how the teams performed in what I categorized as at-risk games: road and neutral games, home games against NCAA Tournament teams, and home losses. It's been a fairly effective tool when used at that time of the year so this season I'm curious as to whether categorizing games thusly tells us anything useful.
Generally, you'd want to include as much information as possible, but I'm guessing that winning guarantee games at home doesn't tell you much about college basketball teams. Plus, tracking these at-risk games allows you to watch teams build their NCAA resumes from scratch.
Obviously, all at-risk games are not created equally so I'll provide more information than just the numbers. I am listing teams in order of efficiency margin (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) simply as an organizational choice. These are not rankings.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Air Force | 124 | 93 | +31 |
Wins: vs. Long Beach State (+5), @Stanford (+63), @Colorado (+57), vs. Texas Tech (+27), vs. Wake Forest (+57)
Loss: vs. Duke (-25)
The Falcons will probably struggle against the nation's most athletic and defensive-minded teams, but the manner in which they have destroyed the mediocre-to-poor major conference teams they've played suggests that this is an awfully effective offensive team.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Clemson | 113 | 87 | +26 |
Wins: vs. Arkansas State (+50), vs. Monmouth (+13), at Old Dominion (+5), @Minnesota (+30), @South Carolina (+29)
Clemson's been getting a bit of mainstream attention for their 10-0 start. Getting an opposing coach to quit after he loses to you will do that. Following the win @Minnesota with an equally decisive win @South Carolina is best thing on their resume, but they may not play another at-risk game until they open ACC play.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Butler | 109 | 86 | +23 |
Wins: @Tulane (+70), vs. Notre Dame (+3), vs. Indiana (+8), vs. Tennessee (+17), vs. Gonzaga (+16), @ Valparaiso (+20)
Without that narrow win over Notre Dame in the first round of the Preseason NIT, we'd have no idea how good Butler is. I think that Butler's defensive efficiency number above is pretty accurate. Sure, it reflects dominating performances @Tulane and @Valparaiso, but they've also played the potent offenses of Notre Dame and Gonzaga.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Villanova | 115 | 92 | +23 |
Wins: vs. College of Charleston (+18), vs. Iowa (+46), @Stony Brook (+44), vs. Penn (+14), @Oklahoma (+20)
Loss: vs. Xavier (-7)
It's not a great collection of wins, but the margins of those victories is intriguing.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Nevada | 117 | 95 | +22 |
Wins: @Oregon State (+43), @Santa Clara (+16), @Louisiana-Lafayette (+17), vs. California (+11)
No great wins yet, but I suspect the Wolfpack are for real offensively as long as Fazekas is in the lineup. I am unlikely, however, to pick them (or any 4 or 5 seed) to go to the Final Four again this year.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Pittsburgh | 111 | 92 | +19 |
Wins: vs. Western Michigan (+21), @Auburn (+15)
Upcoming games @Wisconsin, vs. Oklahoma State, and home to Dayton will give us much-needed additional data to evaluate the Panthers.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Notre Dame | 116 | 100 | +16 |
Wins: vs. Lafayette (+43), vs. Maryland (+9), Alabama (+15)
Loss: vs. Butler (-5)
Take out the Lafayette game and they're +6 on the season which is a much more appropriate way to look at their potential. Excellent offense, regardless.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| UCLA | 119 | 103 | +16 |
Wins: vs.Kentucky (+5), vs. Georgia Tech (+26)
UCLA's probably pretty good, but we don't have sufficient evidence to say so with much certainty.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Maryland | 105 | 94 | +11 |
Wins: @St. John's (+41), vs. Michigan State (+4), @Illinois (+7)
Loss vs. Notre Dame (-9)
Their at-risk profile is living off of the blowout win against St. John's in MSG. That will likely remain at outlier, but the Terps should continue to be far better than anyone who shoots 32.8 eFG% against them for an entire game and they look capable of becoming a good defensive team.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Florida | 117 | 107 | +10 |
Win: vs. Western Kentucky (+40)
Losses: vs. Kansas (-7), @Florida State (-3)
While it's true that Florida lacks a good win thus far, I think it's a little early to consider them anything other than the favorite to win the National Championship. (As long as you include the caveat that Wichita State and Butler are far and away the two most impressive teams so far this year and that nobody appears to have a very good chance of winning the National Championship at this point.)
That the Gators could give up points so easily to Kansas and Florida State is the only real concern going forward.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Marquette | 104 | 95 | +9 |
Wins: vs. Texas Tech (+16), vs. Duke (+21), @Valparaiso (+4)
Loss: North Dakota State (-6)
Marquette had a complete offensive collapse against North Dakota State (0.83 pts per possession). It was the second time that happened in their first nine games. (0.85 pts per possessions in their season-opening win over Idaho State. At home. In overtime.)
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Oregon | 95 | 86 | +9 |
Wins: @Rice (+8), @Georgetown (+10)
I like Luke Winn, but he's crazy to think that Oregon is one of the twelve best/most impressive teams in the country right now. (See also his gift of a #6 ranking to Oklahoma State on the strength of their three narrow, neutral-court wins against teams that may well not make the tournament.) The Ducks rode some very hot three-point shooting to win four home games against marginal competition but against less than stellar opposition on the road they shot 43.5 eFG% both times out. I'm skeptical that Ernie Kent can keep this team in the top ten in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. They haven't finished higher than 94th in that category in any of the last three years.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Alabama | 110 | 102 | +8 |
Wins: vs. Middle Tennessee State (+15), vs. Iowa (+16), vs. Xavier (+15)
Loss: @Notre Dame (-15)
I expect Alabama's defensive efficiency to improve as they play more at-risk games and the influence of Notre Dame's great offensive performance last night lessens.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| North Carolina | 113 | 105 | +8 |
Wins: vs. Winthrop (+13), vs. Tennessee (+12), Ohio State (+17)
Loss: vs. Gonzaga (-10)
I'm not counting home wins over Kentucky as anything yet but it was far and away UNC's best defensive performance of the season. Their offense has been good but inconsistent thus far so team defensive improvement could be quite valuable.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Wichita State | 104 | 96 | +8 |
Wins: @George Mason (+11), @LSU (+9), @Syracuse (+4)
Wichita State is getting too much credit for George Mason having made the Final Four last year, but I don't mind as it makes those autogaphed Mark Turgeon posters I had on my bedroom wall as a boy look all the more prescient.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| LSU | 98 | 92 | +6 |
Win: Texas A&M (+21)
Loss: Wichita State (-9)
LSU looks like they'll attempt to grind out another March run by playing good defense, rebounding, and getting to the free throw line. The fragility of their offense is such that they accomplished two of those three things (defense and rebounding) at home against Wichita State and still lost.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Tennessee | 98 | 93 | +5 |
Wins: vs. Fordham (+12), vs. UNC-Wilmington (+16), @Louisiana-Lafayette (+10), Memphis (+26)
Losses: vs. Butler (-18), vs. North Carolina (-15)
Tennessee's efficiency numbers match LSU's almost exactly, but the Volunteers obviously arrive at them quite differently: forcing turnovers in an attempt that the greater number of shots they take will outweigh any field goal percentage advantage their opponents have. With the Vols struggling from the field and the line thus far, their margin for error has been slim.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Virginia | 112 | 1073 | +5 |
Win: Arizona (+11)
Loss: @Purdue (-1)
Upcoming home games against Gonzaga and Stanford will give us a much better idea of Virginia's relative quality.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Dayton | 96 | 94 | +2 |
Wins: vs. Louisville (+7), Creighton (+7)
Loss: @SMU (-10)
I ran Dayton to see if I should continue to count Nebraska's home win over Creighton as an at-risk game. I'm keeping Creighton as a likely NCAA Tournament for the time being. The Flyers aren't too impressive and their win over Blue Jays likely has a lot to do with both teams having a significant home court advantage. That being said, Dayton's as good a pick as any to be the second-best team in the A-10 this year.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Duke | 110 | 108 | +2 |
Win: vs. Air Force (+25)
Loss: vs. Marquette (-21)
Duke's current profile only reflects two games so it's too early to much into it. Including any or all of the home games against Indiana, Georgetown, and Holy Cross would flatter Duke's defensive efficiency but also reflect their offensive struggles this year.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Syracuse | 103 | 101 | +2 |
Win: @Canisius (+20)
Losses: Wichita State (-4), vs. Oklahoma State (-9)
With no games that should challenge a good team until Pittsburgh comes to the Carrier Dome on January 4th, Syracuse will at best continue to look awfully mediocre in their at-risk profile.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Arizona | 119 | 118 | +1 |
Win: vs. Illinois (+14)
Loss @Virginia (-11)
Arizona's is terriffically entertaining, but they'll have to improve their defensive efficiency by about 20% to be a serious Final Four contender.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Memphis | 100 | 99 | +1 |
Wins: Oklahoma (+20), Kentucky (+18)
Losses: vs. Georgia Tech (-9), @Tennessee (-26)
Memphis hasn't been very good offensively even against patsies at home (105 pts per 100 possessions in all games) mostly due to poor shooting from the field and the line. If they can improve in either of those areas, they'll be able to take advantage of their consistently solid defense. Only Georgia Tech has had any easy time scoring against them.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Georgia Tech | 116 | 116 | 0 |
Wins: vs. Purdue (+25), vs. Memphis (+9)
Losses: vs. UCLA (-26), @Miami, FL (-10)
They're young and they could certainly get it together at some point this year but they've allowed at least 110 points per possessions in each of their last four games. That's not entirely damning when you're facing Memphis or UCLA, but it shouldn't happen at home against Penn State or @Miami.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Georgetown | 104 | 105 | -1 |
Wins: @Vanderbilt (+19), @Fairfield (+23)
Losses: Old Dominion (-26), Oregon (-10), @Duke (-14)
Georgetown hasn't been very good at any point this year and two key offensive measures (eFG% and TO%) are trending sharply downward. Their schedule may buoy their record for a while but they do not appear ready to succeed against Big East competition.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Purdue | 106 | 107 | -1 |
Wins: vs. Oklahoma (+5), vs. DePaul (+16)
Loss: vs. Georgia Tech (-25)
Included simply because I ran them after the Maui Invivational. That DePaul is never going to look better than it does this week.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Xavier | 98 | 99 | -1 |
Wins: vs. VCU (+4), vs. Villanova (+7)
Loss: vs. Alabama (-15)
The Muskateers are getting a lot of credit for their game against Alabama being played at a slow enough pace that the seven-point loss looked closer than it truly was.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Gonzaga | 109 | 111 | -2 |
Wins: vs. UNC (+10), vs. Texas (+11)
Losses: vs. Butler (-17), @Washington State (-14)
Gonzaga's played a tougher slate of at-risk games than most teams. That doesn't mean that their defense won't be an issue come tournament time again this year. Unlike Georgetown, though, I expect Gonzaga to make the tournament easily.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Illinois | 101 | 103 | -2 |
Wins: vs. Miami, OH (+6), vs. Bradley (+7)
Losses: Maryland (-7), vs. Arizona (-14)
If the defense tightens once (if?) Bruce Weber gets his full complement of players available they could join the race for second-place in the Big 10.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Michigan State | 95 | 99 | -4 |
Win: vs. Texas (+5)
Losses: vs. Maryland (-5), @Boston College (-12)
Though they've shown some flashes of offensive competence at home against Youngstown State, IUPUI-Fort Wayne, and perhaps relevantly, Bradley, the Spartans have struggled to make shots and take care of the ball in their three toughest games. Like a typical Tom Izzo team, they are getting a ton of offensive rebounds.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Ohio State | 116 | 133 | -17 |
Loss: @North Carolina (-17)
Obviously, we're suffering from a lack of data points here. From my (limited) observation, Ohio State is the second most likely team, at this early point in the season, to reach the Final Four.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| UConn | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Until their December 30th trip to West Virginia, no news is good news.
| Team | OffEff | DefEff | Diff |
| Washington | N/A | N/A | N/A |
I have no idea why Washington's in the top 15 of both polls. They haven't been impressive in dispatching their overmatched foes. @Gonzaga tommorrow, though.
posted by Bret LaGree at
11:35 AM
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