Performance in At-risk Games: The Big 12 Through 12/6/06

Hoopinion's been on hiatus (just here, things keep chugging along at PhogBlog and CourtsideTimes) while laying the groundwork for an ambitious and time-consuming project that may turn out to be meaningless.

That's how you lower expectations.

For the last couple of years, my NCAA Tournament predictions have been centered around looking at how the teams performed in what I categorized as at-risk games: road and neutral games, home games against NCAA Tournament teams, and home losses. It's been a fairly effective tool when used at that time of the year so this season I'm curious as to whether categorizing games thusly tells us anything useful.

Generally, you'd want to include as much information as possible, but I'm guessing that winning guarantee games at home doesn't tell you much about college basketball teams. Plus, tracking these at-risk games allows you to watch teams build their NCAA resumes from scratch.

Obviously, all at-risk games are not created equally so I'll provide more information than just the numbers. I am listing teams in order of efficiency margin (points scored per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) simply as an organizational choice. These are not rankings.

Today the Big 12, tomorrow a national overview.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Nebraska	116	111	+5

Win: Creighton (+17)
Loss: @Rutgers (-7)

You'll see that I'm quite conservative about including home wins this early in the year. At the time of the win, Creighton looked like a decent bet to make the tournament. I don't think their loss to Dayton last night changes it that much. As to why I think that, look for Dayton's year-to-date profile tomorrow.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Oklahoma State	101	97	+4

Wins: vs. Auburn (+2), vs. Missouri State (+6), vs. Syracuse (+4)

Winning all your close games is better than losing some of them, but I wouldn't hang my hat on being able to continue to do so. When facing decent opposition thus far, Oklahoma State has not yet found anyone to complement Boggan and Curry offensively. Or learned how not to turn the ball over (TO% = 30.6 in these three games).

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Kansas	101	99	+2

Wins: vs. Ball State (+25), vs. Florida (+7)
Losses: Oral Roberts (-14), @DePaul (-11)

That's not the resume of a number-one seed. Ball State's the only team of the four that Kansas held under a point per possession. Florida's the only team of the four against whom Kansas scored more than 1.01 points per possession.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Texas Tech	104	105	-1

Wins: @UTEP (+21), @TCU (+11), @Louisiana Tech (+17)
Losses: vs. Marquette (-16), vs. Air Force (-27), @Stanford (-13)

The Red Raiders may be close to neutral overall, but they lost (and lost handily) to the three best teams they've played (and Stanford's not even that good) and are buoying themselves with road wins against teams (year-to-date) in the bottom half of Division 1. I would not, at this time, expect Texas Tech to finish in the top half of the Big 12.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Texas	104	109	-5

Win: @St. John's (+3)
Losses: vs. Michigan State (-5), vs. Gonzaga (-11)

This what Texas is right now, not what they could become before the year is out. Upcoming non-conference games against LSU and @Tennessee will give us a better idea of how Texas compares nationally. That they've played some decent-to-good teams close already lets us know that they appear to be among the class of the Big 12. I've never been impressed by Rick Barnes as a defensive coach. That could well be what keeps this young team from achieving much beyond a top-3 finish in conference.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Baylor	100	105	-5

Win: vs. Colorado State (+6)
Loss: @Gonzaga (-16)

Ken Pomeroy, who includes all Division 1 games and adjusts offensive and defensive efficiency for quality of opponents has Baylor ranked 42nd in the nation in Offensive Efficiency. Here's where I suspect looking strongly at the at-risk games helps one's analysis. I day that struggling to score against Colorado State and Gonzaga does not bode well for Baylor, I don't care how many points they score at home against Alcorn State, Grambling State, and Texas State.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Iowa State	99	105	-6

Win: @Minnesota (+5)
Losses: @Northern Iowa (-19), Drake (-1)

You likely don't need me to tell you that Iowa State may win the race to 11th place in the Big 12. Their best win came narrowly against a team whose coach resigned soon thereafter. Northern Iowa beat them rather handily. They lost at home to Drake and barely escaped Eastern Illinois in Ames earlier in the year. Once their upcoming games at Iowa and at Ohio State and against Bradley in Des Moines occur the Cyclones will be looking up at the middle of the conference pack on this list.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Kansas State	88	103	-15

Win: @Rutgers (+22)
Losses: @New Mexico (-31), @California (-43), @Colorado State (-7)

In their win at Rutgers, Kansas State scored just 0.84 points per possession. They were even worse at New Mexico (0.76) and California (0.74). They scored much more efficiently at Colorado State (1.18). It remains to be seen as to how much of that was due to Kansas State improving and how much of that was due to Colorado State being a bad defensive team.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Oklahoma	87	103	-16

Losses: vs. Memphis (-20), vs. Purdue (-5), Villanova (-20)

The Sooners are struggling to score this year. So much so that they got blown out at home last night despite playing some decent defense (0.96 pts per possession) against Villanova.

March 3rd, 2007, Oklahoma at Kansas State. First team to 50 wins.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Texas A&M	84	105	-21

Loss: @LSU (-21)

I'm not saying Texas A&M's not the second-best team in the Big 12. I'm just saying that in the one game so far this season where the outcome was in question, Texas A&M lost badly to a good opponent. (The margin of victory was only 12 points, but that's a pretty fair margin in a 61 possession game.)

FYI: Should Pacific make the tournament and get added to Texas A&M's at-risk profile, Texas A&M was +22 in that game.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Colorado	87	112	-25

Win: @Utah (0)
Losses: @New Mexico (-55), Air Force (-57), Wyoming (-4), @UNC-Wilmington (-14), Pepperdine (-10)

In their home game against Northern Colorado, I estimated (from the box score) that Colorado had four more possessions than Norther Colorado and the Buffs were outscored per possession depsite winning the game by two whole points. That's likely due to all the offensive rebounds and free throw attempts skewing the numbers by a couple of possessions, but bear in mind that Colorado, at best, played Northern Colorado even for 40 minutes. At home.

This is a bad basketball team led by a lame-duck coach. If Colorado doesn't finish last in the Big 12 a) I'd be shocked and b) somebody's getting fired.

Team	OffEff	DefEff	Diff
Missouri	N/A	N/A	N/A

Finally, the most interesting team in the Big 12. Missouri haven't played any at-risk games yet, though neither Arkansas (+31) nor Evansville (+26) is a complete pushover. Right now, I'd pick Missouri to finish in the top four of the Big 12. Mike Anderson's style of play is more vulnerable the better the opposition is, but since there don't appear to be any really good teams in the Big 12, they have to like their chances on any given night. Sure, they'll probably lose @Kansas, @Texas, and @Texas A&M, but I wouldn't guarantee that any of those teams would win that matchup.

If Missouri looks overmatched against Illinois and @Purdue in the next ten days, disregard the above.