Performance in At-risk Games: Big 12 through 12/17/06

I've added a column for each team's won-lost record in at-risk games in an attempt to provide a little more easily digestible information in the team capsules.

Team	Record	Off Eff	Def Eff	Diff
Oklahoma State	4-0	107	95	+12

Wins: vs. Auburn (+2), vs. Missouri State (+6), vs. Syracuse (+4), vs. Ball State (+33)

Obi Muonelo is expected to miss the rest of the season after breaking his ankle in practice on Saturday.

Anything that means Byron "I make Greg Paulus look competent" Eaton has to play more is bad for Oklahoma State in and of itself, but Muonelo was having a fine freshman season, at least when he wasn't attempting three-pointers (11-43, 25.6%). Muonelo was averaging 26.9 points per 100 possessions, 6.2 assists per 100 (against 5.3 TO/100), 3.5 steals per 100, and rebounding effectively on both ends of the court (7.2 OR%, 13.7 DR%).

Team	Record	Off Eff	Def Eff	Diff
Kansas	3-2	101	96	+5

Wins: vs. Ball State (+25), vs. Florida (+7), vs. Toledo (+16)
Losses: Oral Roberts (-14), @DePaul (-11)

Team	Record	Off Eff	Def Eff	Diff
Texas Tech	4-3	105	102	+3

Wins: @UTEP (+21), @TCU (+11), @Louisiana Tech (+17), vs. Arkansas (+25)
Losses: vs. Marquette (-16), vs. Air Force (-27), @Stanford (-13)

Team	Record	Off Eff	Def Eff	Diff
Texas	2-2	103	106	-3

Wins: @St. John's (+3), vs. LSU (+2)
Losses: vs. Michigan State (-5), vs. Gonzaga (-11)

Team	Record	Off Eff	Def Eff	Diff
Nebraska	1-2	109	114	-5

Win: Creighton (+17)
Losses: @Rutgers (-7), vs. Oregon (-26)

Team	Record	Off Eff	Def Eff	Diff
Kansas State	2-3	96	107	-11

Wins: @Rutgers (+22), @North Dakota State (+3)
Losses: @New Mexico (-31), @California (-43), @Colorado State (-7)

Bill Walker's eligible. He's athletic. Everything is going to be fine.

Team	Record	Off Eff	Def Eff	Diff
Iowa State	1-4	97	108	-11

Win: @Minnesota (+5)
Losses: @Northern Iowa (-19), Drake (-1), @Iowa (-27), vs. Bradley (-12)

Mike Taylor has only turned the ball over four times in total during Iowa State's last two games (vs. Bradley and home against Savannah State. He has maintained his breakneck pace of missing shots, though, going 7-23 from the field and bringing his year-to-date totals to 91 missed shots and 58 turnovers.

Team	Record	Off Eff	Def Eff	Diff
Baylor	1-3	99	111	-12

Win: vs. Colorado State (+6)
Losses: @Gonzaga (-16), South Carolina (-4), @Syracuse (-31)

Baylor's decent field-goal defense (50 eFG%) in at-risk games has been completely undone by the volume of offensive rebounds they surrender to their opponents (37.3%) and allowing their opponents to shot one free throw for every two field goals they attempt.

Team	Record	Off Eff	Def Eff	Diff
Texas A&M	0-2	92	105	-13

Losses: @LSU (-21), vs. UCLA (-5)

Texas A&M's offensive numbers in at-risk games are heavily deflated by virtue of the Aggies playing two fine defensive teams. Thoughts of contending for the Big 12 title should be tempered by the fact that, thus far, their best win is over either Saint Louis or Fordham in College Station.

Team	Record	Off Eff	Def Eff	Diff
Oklahoma	0-3	87	103	-16

Losses: vs. Memphis (-20), vs. Purdue (-5), Villanova (-20)

As of this writing, Ken Pomeroy has Oklahoma ranked 16th in the nation in adjusted pythagorean winning percentage. That's almost entirely a product of a small sample size (though a larger sample than the three games considered right here). Oklahoma's best win so far was at home against Liberty (140th in the nation per Pomeroy).

The next two weeks should give us a better idea as to whether Oklahoma can take advantage of the weak Big 12 and contend for an NCAA Tournament or will have to concern themselves simply with getting eligible for the NIT. They play Tulsa in Oklahoma City this week, have SMU in Norman for the last game of 2006, and open 2007 by going to Alabama and Texas Tech. I suspect that Oklahoma will be hard pressed to split those four games.

Team	Record	Off Eff	Def Eff	Diff
Colorado	1-6	86	107	-21

Win: @Utah (0)
Losses: @New Mexico (-55), Air Force (-57), Wyoming (-4), @UNC-Wilmington (-14), Pepperdine (-10), Colorado State (-8)

I had accidentally left the stats from the game @UNC-Wilmington out Colorado's at-risk totals in the previous entries in this series. That error has now been corrected.

Team	Record	Off Eff	Def Eff	Diff
Missouri	0-1	80	103	-23

Loss: @Purdue (-23)